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Krugerrand
Meow
You're totally get a disagree...*we* do NOT sit here on this board talking about $1T market caps and the conquering of the world. YOU talk about it way more than the rest of us put together.
I don't expect anything. I'm 'betting' based on the research I've done on Elon and watching what's been accomplished to date. There's no chance on this Earth (or on Mars) that Elon will stop at BMW size. That IS an advice. Elon sees a path to $1T market cap. If he sees it, it exists, and I assure you that's where he's heading. Feel free to stand in his way with your short and prepare to get run the heck over.
Illogical. Irrelevant.
No clue what game you're watching but the ball has been spiked many times. The score is 323.47 to 0.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
meaning what?... you get more money?... that's what you expect... that's exactly what I just got done chastising you for... and what if they don't exceed BMW and only make it to half of BMW, switch from growth to value and become sustainably profitable... resulting in a share price drop from here to sub $200?... would you consider that a success?
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I am not surprised by this at all. Ashlee Vance's biography of Musk confirms as much.
Late 2008 was the absolute lowest point for Elon, according to Vance's interviews with Elon, Talulah Riley, coworkers, and friends. The financial crisis, Falcon 1 failures, and Tesla Roadster problems all hit at the same time.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Chastising?
Look, some people here are willing to accept the risk. Berating people is pointless.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I don't think that the article is that good, but I love the quote in bold, and the rest of the paragraph.
The Chevy Bolt Will Fail
Traditional franchise dealers are like DMV offices with better furniture, and often not even. A Tesla store is like an Apple store that sells cars. A Tesla, like an iPhone, is upgradeable. Options are few, but the improvement path is long. You want the latest AD software in your Porsche/Audi/BMW? You have to buy a new car. Heard of anyone retrofitting AD sensors to their old one? I haven’t. Upgrading your Tesla? The sensors were built-in two years before Autopilot 7 was released. Park it overnight. Voila! OTA update.
The Chevy Bolt Will Fail
Traditional franchise dealers are like DMV offices with better furniture, and often not even. A Tesla store is like an Apple store that sells cars. A Tesla, like an iPhone, is upgradeable. Options are few, but the improvement path is long. You want the latest AD software in your Porsche/Audi/BMW? You have to buy a new car. Heard of anyone retrofitting AD sensors to their old one? I haven’t. Upgrading your Tesla? The sensors were built-in two years before Autopilot 7 was released. Park it overnight. Voila! OTA update.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
You can't pick who will buy the $35k car.
It can just as easily be a 50 year old upper class guy that is cheap as a 30 year old middle class guy that is stretching to to get into a base $35k car.
Tesla will not be selling millions of cars with the $7500 federal credit to secure a base of customers for the future. A couple of hundred thousand at most. When Tesla should be selling millions per year in the not too distant future.
There are no good or bad choices save alternatives.
Where is the young middle class guy that just missed out on base Model 3 going to go in the future because he feels scorned by Elon Musk?
His friends at Audi,Lexus or Cadillac ?
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Has a nice summary of M3 reviews:
Tesla Model 3 reviewers are in love: “Yes, the hyperbole is necessary”
GO TIME
Tesla Model 3 reviewers are in love: “Yes, the hyperbole is necessary”
Michael J. Coren
July 30, 2017
Not just an EV (Tesla)
Tesla hopes to enter the hearts—and driveways—of millions of people around the world with the debut of its first mass-market electric vehicle, the Model 3. The company handed over the key (cards) to the first 30 owners of the much-anticipated car at a glitzy launch event on July 29.
What’s the word so far?
It’s hard to find a bad review.
So far, no country outside of China is buying electric vehicles in large numbers. But Tesla plans to change that, manufacturing 400,000 of the cars per year by 2018. To sell those, car buyers will need to see the Model 3 not just as a different type of car, but as a better one. The biggest competition for the Model 3 is not other electric vehicles; it’s gasoline engines.
The early word from reviewers looks promising for Tesla. Their verdict: the Model 3 is not only impressive by electric vehicle standards, it’s a spectacular car by any measure. Any qualms tend to focus on a slight learning curve for dashboard controls, limited fast-charging infrastructure, and the cost for some of the premium features. No doubt issues will arise, but this is Tesla’s honeymoon.
Quartz rounded up the (sometimes breathless) highlights from the major reviewers about the new car.
It’s best in class (and maybe just the best)
The Model 3 feels like an automotive tipping point, writes Wired’s Jack Stewart. Tesla’s debut could mark the point at which almost anyone—not just Tesla fans and the environmentally conscious—could see themselves driving an electric vehicle.
The standard $35,000 Model 3 (before tax incentives) has a 220-mile range, five-seats, and can hit 131 miles per hour for a price equivalent to the median US car price. The more powerful $44,000 long-range version can travel 310 miles on a single charge. At that price, Engadget’s Andrew Tarantola writes, “the Model 3 really feels like the car that will bring electric vehicles as a whole into the mainstream.”
Motor Trend showered the Model 3 with superlative praise. “The Tesla Model 3 is […] the most important vehicle of the century,” the magazine writes. “Yes, the hyperbole is necessary,” it continues, likening the Alfa Romeo Giulia X’s performance to a “wet sponge” compared to the Model 3.
Business Insider also did not hold back. “I’ve driven pretty much every other all-electric car you can buy, and I can safely say that the Model 3 has no competition,” wrote Matthew Debord. “There isn’t anybody who’s going to sit in the driver’s seat of this car and not want it, if only briefly. The Model 3 stokes immediate desire, and the lust lingers.”
Fast, nimble, and wow
“The car sprints like an Olympic 100-meter champion,” raves USA Today. The $35,000 standard version hits 60 mph in 5.6 seconds with a top speed of 130mph (the upgraded version is slightly faster). The Model 3 has a smaller battery pack so it can’t perform the same theatrics as its premium cousins (an extra fast “Ludicrous” mode).
But that didn’t seem to faze reviewers. High-torque electric propulsion means the Model 3 still has a significant acceleration advantage over internal combustion engines. Tesla’s engineers also apparently took advantage of the car’s low center of gravity (the battery pack fits neatly under the chassis) to give it crisp handling. “The Model 3 is so unexpected[ly] scalpel-like, I’m sputtering for adjectives,” sputters Motor Trend.
Autopilot is awesome
The Model 3 comes with the same eight cameras, radar, ultrasonics, and plenty of computing power that the premium Model X and S offer. Although it costs more to activate Autopilot and advanced self-driving features, the car already has the ability to take over highway driving and other chores for drivers.
Testing the semi-autonomous Autopilot, TopGear’s Charlie Turner called it “a system that still feels like witchcraft.” In what is likely to become a standard feature in many cars, the gear shifter has an extra setting: Park, Reverse, Neutral, Drive— and Autopilot.
So much interior
Tesla says it designed the interior of the car for the day when cars will drive themselves, and there’s no need for myriads buttons and displays. Appropriately, the Model 3 exterior feels “like a cockpit from the future,” says Mashable. The challenge was to provide expansive interior space, even as it shrunk the car compared to the Model S. “Subjectively it succeeded,” judges Motor Trend.
Tesla replaced the typical automotive dashboard with a “stylish, Scandinavian” touchscreen console, a horizontal 15-inch display that gives drivers all the information they need. Few buttons exist besides some thumb controls on the steering wheel. Multiple storage areas are tucked into the front of the car, as well as two smartphone charging docks. The individual vents for hot or cold air are replaced by thin openings in the dash blowing air into the cabin, and controlled by touching the screen and swiping where more AC or heat is desired.
Tesla Model 3 reviewers are in love: “Yes, the hyperbole is necessary”
GO TIME
Tesla Model 3 reviewers are in love: “Yes, the hyperbole is necessary”
Michael J. Coren
July 30, 2017
Not just an EV (Tesla)
Tesla hopes to enter the hearts—and driveways—of millions of people around the world with the debut of its first mass-market electric vehicle, the Model 3. The company handed over the key (cards) to the first 30 owners of the much-anticipated car at a glitzy launch event on July 29.
What’s the word so far?
It’s hard to find a bad review.
So far, no country outside of China is buying electric vehicles in large numbers. But Tesla plans to change that, manufacturing 400,000 of the cars per year by 2018. To sell those, car buyers will need to see the Model 3 not just as a different type of car, but as a better one. The biggest competition for the Model 3 is not other electric vehicles; it’s gasoline engines.
The early word from reviewers looks promising for Tesla. Their verdict: the Model 3 is not only impressive by electric vehicle standards, it’s a spectacular car by any measure. Any qualms tend to focus on a slight learning curve for dashboard controls, limited fast-charging infrastructure, and the cost for some of the premium features. No doubt issues will arise, but this is Tesla’s honeymoon.
Quartz rounded up the (sometimes breathless) highlights from the major reviewers about the new car.
It’s best in class (and maybe just the best)
The Model 3 feels like an automotive tipping point, writes Wired’s Jack Stewart. Tesla’s debut could mark the point at which almost anyone—not just Tesla fans and the environmentally conscious—could see themselves driving an electric vehicle.
The standard $35,000 Model 3 (before tax incentives) has a 220-mile range, five-seats, and can hit 131 miles per hour for a price equivalent to the median US car price. The more powerful $44,000 long-range version can travel 310 miles on a single charge. At that price, Engadget’s Andrew Tarantola writes, “the Model 3 really feels like the car that will bring electric vehicles as a whole into the mainstream.”
Motor Trend showered the Model 3 with superlative praise. “The Tesla Model 3 is […] the most important vehicle of the century,” the magazine writes. “Yes, the hyperbole is necessary,” it continues, likening the Alfa Romeo Giulia X’s performance to a “wet sponge” compared to the Model 3.
Business Insider also did not hold back. “I’ve driven pretty much every other all-electric car you can buy, and I can safely say that the Model 3 has no competition,” wrote Matthew Debord. “There isn’t anybody who’s going to sit in the driver’s seat of this car and not want it, if only briefly. The Model 3 stokes immediate desire, and the lust lingers.”
Fast, nimble, and wow
“The car sprints like an Olympic 100-meter champion,” raves USA Today. The $35,000 standard version hits 60 mph in 5.6 seconds with a top speed of 130mph (the upgraded version is slightly faster). The Model 3 has a smaller battery pack so it can’t perform the same theatrics as its premium cousins (an extra fast “Ludicrous” mode).
But that didn’t seem to faze reviewers. High-torque electric propulsion means the Model 3 still has a significant acceleration advantage over internal combustion engines. Tesla’s engineers also apparently took advantage of the car’s low center of gravity (the battery pack fits neatly under the chassis) to give it crisp handling. “The Model 3 is so unexpected[ly] scalpel-like, I’m sputtering for adjectives,” sputters Motor Trend.
Autopilot is awesome
The Model 3 comes with the same eight cameras, radar, ultrasonics, and plenty of computing power that the premium Model X and S offer. Although it costs more to activate Autopilot and advanced self-driving features, the car already has the ability to take over highway driving and other chores for drivers.
Testing the semi-autonomous Autopilot, TopGear’s Charlie Turner called it “a system that still feels like witchcraft.” In what is likely to become a standard feature in many cars, the gear shifter has an extra setting: Park, Reverse, Neutral, Drive— and Autopilot.
So much interior
Tesla says it designed the interior of the car for the day when cars will drive themselves, and there’s no need for myriads buttons and displays. Appropriately, the Model 3 exterior feels “like a cockpit from the future,” says Mashable. The challenge was to provide expansive interior space, even as it shrunk the car compared to the Model S. “Subjectively it succeeded,” judges Motor Trend.
Tesla replaced the typical automotive dashboard with a “stylish, Scandinavian” touchscreen console, a horizontal 15-inch display that gives drivers all the information they need. Few buttons exist besides some thumb controls on the steering wheel. Multiple storage areas are tucked into the front of the car, as well as two smartphone charging docks. The individual vents for hot or cold air are replaced by thin openings in the dash blowing air into the cabin, and controlled by touching the screen and swiping where more AC or heat is desired.
understood... but look at Ron Barron... and then look at many on this board... including yourself to some degree... with expectations of this company that exceed reason... yes... Elon is the one that put himself into this position... but, from my recollection of our conversations from this weekend... your expectation is that Tesla grows to 1m and then on target for 2m+ by 2022... you've got the M3 which is in hand built stage at this point and in two years somehow they're going to exceed the capacity of their current factory...
what if the target was left at 500k/yr in 2020?... why was that not success?... because the SP wouldn't hold at these levels with that projection... at this point here's what success in 2022 looks like:
3 to 4 new auto factories
multiple gigafactories
large revenues from solar roofs and TE
large scale adoption of battery backed solar
FSD vehicles moving on their own
large expansions into China
defeat of any competition
what do you think Elon's mental health status will be after all that?
the expectations for this company are out of hand.... why wasn't success in 2022 large scale of adoption of EVs by the worlds automakers and Tesla having a chunk of that with a market cap target of $50b or less and a P/S of 1 like the rest of the auto industry?
three years ago that's what was expected... and now the expectations are something more akin to global domination.
Krugerrand
Meow
You think you've chastised me? I'm guffawing so hard right now I can barely hit the right keys.
Meaning: I'm telling you straight up, BMW is dead to me. As far as what I'd consider a success: Since April Fools 2013.
Krugerrand
Meow
He might buy a F-250 King Ranch pick up truck. Costs the same as a loaded Model 3. It is a living room on wheels that can move a lot of dirt.
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@mmd
You have an extremely familiar writing style.
I could swear I have seen your writing on Seeking Alpha under a different avatar(s)
What is one of the possibly many user names you post under there?
If I can find a free writing analysis engine, you have given me a project for "a hammer of ghod" idea
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
3-4 new factories are only needed if Tesla clones the existing Fremont plant (Max expected 500k units total per year). 2 million vehicles would require 3 additional plants.
Tesla could conceivably build a much higher capacity factory, designed with better automation in mind. The company said they would elaborate on such plans later this year.
Your entire thesis can be summed up as: "task is so enormous that it can't be done". Maybe, maybe not. I am content to watch the chips fall where they may. My retirement portfolio has no dependence on TSLA whatsoever, which means I kind of don't care what happens, except for entertainment purposes. If my bet on TSLA is an extra good one maybe I get a Model Y for free... Not counting on it but it would be fun.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Is your investment strategy that Elon is going to lose his marbles? Most really creative genius types are a bit crazy. Nothing in the last 2 decades gives me pause as it relates to Elon and his mental health. He obviously thrives on the challenge even though he likes to complain about it. I know you have a set bias that won't change, but it really is as simple as ignoring what Elon says he is going to do and just focus on what he has done. I'm almost certain that not one human being thought it was a good idea to start a private space agency and sink every penny into it. I'm also fairly certain only 2-3 people thought it would be a good idea to start a new automotive manufacture in the US much less in California. Yet here we are. Results matter. Minutia does not. How one gets from a->b->c is less important then actually getting to goal. Most consumers have zero clue of any of this minutia. All they see is extremely sexy cars that stick out wherever they are. My model x is like a damn celebrity and people literally ask me if they can take a picture with the car. Like I'm chopped liver and not as good looking as George Clooney. Pfft.
I realize you are here to push an agenda, I get it. It's futile and your arguments are weak, but some uninformed passer byer might be fooled so I insist on replying.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
By 2025 I will wager for every F250 King Ranch Ford sells (assuming Ford is still a going concern) Tesla will sell at least 3 pickups at the same or higher transaction price.
You will be able to watch a movie (like a real living room) as you are driven from Denver to Dallas. And it will move more dirt to boot.
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