2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Zaxxon]

I'm as bullish as anyone on the long term, but short term is just too unpredictable, anything can be spun anyway possible. For example, since they only delivered 30 out of the 50 cars built, shorts can spin it and say the other 20 cars may be held back because they need some rework, so the production line only has 60% yield now.

Of course the shorts can spin anything, but in this case it's not so nebulous: many of the other vehicles were needed for internal use (further product testing, crash testing, etc). Agreed that the short term remains very unpredictable. I've just resolved to pay attention only to the signal rather than the noise: will they produce 150 in Aug as suggested? Will Sept ramp significantly from Aug? Etc.

With the initial reviews being pretty positive, the ramp is literally all that I care about for the next few months.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Driving Tesla’s Model 3 Changes Everything

Great in depth review from bloomberg.

Thank you Bloomberg!

(Not those stupid Bolt vs. Model 3 comparisons that ICE makers and their cronies always want you to see).

 

[DurandalAI]

It looks so great from the outside. Not sure I would want to be Elon

Elon Musk gets personal about his 'terrible lows' and 'unrelenting stress'

Yeah, I was sad to see that. He's emotionally invested in his work, and I don't blame him. He knows his end goal is beneficial for humanity, and he knows that simultaneously people are both placing their hopes on him, while others are trying to tear him down. There's no easy fix for that situation, but I hope he is surrounded by supportive people who share his goals and aspirations.

 

[22522]

Hey Whoever Knows

Yeah, I was sad to see that. He's emotionally invested in his work, and I don't blame him. He knows his end goal is beneficial for humanity, and he knows that simultaneously people are both placing their hopes on him, while others are trying to tear him down. There's no easy fix for that situation, but I hope he is surrounded by supportive people who share his goals and aspirations.

Mountain biking at race pace solves that. The race pace part is important. Clears everything mental and chemical.

 

[adiggs]

The bulk of cost-cutting to maintain margins while ramping EVs at Audi will come from slashing R&D.
Isn't R&D what they need to catch up with Tesla?

If they're cutting ICE R&D to fund EV R&D, then that's exactly the cost-cutting they need to be doing.

If there's enough ICE R&D to be cut, to aggressively fund the EV R&D.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I expect Model X unit sales to approach Model S unit sales in 2H17 based on trends in search results, management commentary around Model X expectations, and potential Osborne from Model 3 on Model S sales.

 

[ggr]

I expect Model X unit sales to approach Model S unit sales in 2H17 based on trends in search results, management commentary around Model X expectations, and potential Osborne from Model 3 on Model S sales.

View attachment 238932

What is this graph supposedly showing? No labels.

 

[erthquake]

What is this graph supposedly showing? No labels.

It's a Google Trends graph showing the relative interest in the search keywords "Model S" (blue) and "Model X" (red).

You can play with that graph here:

Google Trends

If you wanna have a little fun, add "Model 3" to the comparisons. Wow!

 

[ValueAnalyst]

What is this graph supposedly showing? No labels.

How frequently people searched for "model S" and "model x" on Google across the world.

You can play around with different parameters on Google Trends.

 

[RobStark]

It looks so great from the outside. Not sure I would want to be Elon

Elon Musk gets personal about his 'terrible lows' and 'unrelenting stress'

If it was easy to become a multi-billionaire and date Amber Heard everyone would do it.

 

[22522]

because people don't feel the same level of emotional attachment to their cars they they do to their homes.

I think there are significant differences based on how you were raised as well as individual orientation. People from poverty view education very differently than the middle class, who view it very differently from the wealthy.

Also food: P "Is there enough? M "Was it good?" W "How was it presented?"

There is a matrix somewhere...

 

[elasalle]

when?... as of somewhat recently the idea was that it'd be the M3 providing such services... haven't heard that noise in a while, but why in the world would anyone think it's a good idea to provide this service through retail vehicles that cost $50k? why wouldn't a company just come along and create a fleet of flying toasters and charge 1/2 for the service?

answer: they will if this FSD crap is possible. the Tesla Network through retail vehicles is a joke.

Because they are concerned about safety for one thing. Fleet of toasters will get toasted on the motorways.

 

[neroden]

This was actually a decision by Mark Tappening and Martin Eberhart before Elon Musk came on board.

If you haven't viewed it yet, Mark does a great video on the early days of Tesla.

Thanks for reminding me that that was a Tarpenning/Eberhard decision and that they did the research.

 

[neroden]

Not true. Most big cities (at least ~100k inhabitants) have acceptable public transport.

Here in the US, I live in a town of "at least ~100K inhabitants" (metro area) but nobody in the US would call it a big city! We call it a small town!

It is just on the threshold of *really needing* local separated-from-general-traffic public transportation, i.e. trains.

Lots of small towns don't.

Well, tiny dorfs are good places for driving cars -- they don't have traffic!

Inter-city public transport is okay. Now, compare Germany to Switzerland... Railway dreams come true!

Indeed, Switzerland public transport is amazing.

 

[neroden]

I think there are significant differences based on how you were raised as well as individual orientation. People from poverty view education very differently than the middle class, who view it very differently from the wealthy.

I don't know about that, but I do know that people raised in the academic classes (yes, educators are a class) view education very, very, *very* differently from the way poor, middle class, or wealthy people outside the academic classes view it.

 

[neroden]

Small note.
Pleasantly surprised to know that there were 50 Prod vehicles produced even though just 30 were delivered. Small indicator, but definitely indicates that there were no unexpected issues for the first month of July.

It does. The other 20 are being used internally for "validation", I think Musk said? So they are doing the validation phase, they're just doing it simultaneously with early deliveries rather than leaving multimonth gaps. Here's hoping no significant problems are found during validation.

 

[neroden]

Also, you left out "storage" although your meaning was clear. At first read I really panicked!

We have a different need and the shocking to me $9,000 option for the extended range vehicle scotched my hope for a $50,000 limit for an M3 with almost all the bells and whistles (ludicrous not needed). The longer range battery is not needed, especially as our daily use would be around town and we would likely not need the Tesla fast charger at home, just the connector.

You're in California where there are Superchargers *everywhere* -- you definitely don't need the longer-range battery (unless you make road trips to Montana or something, but I think that's not your style).

 

[neroden]

It looks so great from the outside. Not sure I would want to be Elon

Elon Musk gets personal about his 'terrible lows' and 'unrelenting stress'

Well, I can't say I've run a company, but dealing with chronic illnesses is like that, so I know about it. Luckily Musk has many good people to support him in his work, though he really needs to fire Tesla's incompetent chief legal counsel and get someone who can support the company properly.

 

[elasalle]

It does.

? Producing 50 instead of stated 30 indicates issues

 

[neroden]

? Producing 50 instead of stated 30 indicates issues

No, I was agreeing that producing 50 instead of 30 indicates that there are *no* issues (or few issues anyway).