2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[ValueAnalyst]

Then you don't know Elon.

It's true that I've never met him, but the fact that anything he does will just add more gross profit is all I need to know.

I can't believe we're arguing about this right now. I'm gonna go do some laps. It's been an exhausting few days.

 

[JRP3]

Shorts get roofied

Tesla Finishes First Solar Roofs—Including Elon's House

 

[hockeythug]

Was listening to the call replay and then it suddenly reloaded to a 15 minute stream of music. Maybe they are editing the first part out.

 

[AlMc]

It wasn't the new system. But maybe you all need to check your own listening devices, because I could hear the call crystal clear. Every word.

Then either you were in the CC room with EM and company or on the telephone with analysts waiting to ask a question.

 

[Alketi]

Mark Spiegel is ... covering? And finding another hobby?

 

[hockeythug]

Mark Spiegel is ... covering? And finding another hobby?

View attachment 239386

Thats a shame. Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy.

 

[Krugerrand]

Then either you were in the CC room with EM and company or on the telephone with analysts waiting to ask a question.

I assure you I was neither there nor on the phone, but it was impeccable audio on my end - which it has never been before. I even clearly heard the guy who Elon told multiple times to turn up his audio because he was too soft. Audio was crazy good. Dunno what else to say, except maybe it was the aluminum foil bunny ears I put on my laptop?!

 

[kenliles]

I assure you I was neither there nor on the phone, but it was impeccable audio on my end - which it has never been before. I even clearly heard the guy who Elon told multiple times to turn up his audio because he was too soft. Audio was crazy good. Dunno what else to say, except maybe it was the aluminum foil bunny ears I put on my laptop?!

That was all post the problem which occurred in the first minutes. They even had to have everyone hold for a few minutes but stay on line while they switched systems from multi-Mics new one to previous system. If you did hear everything, then you also heard the silence during those minutes and explanation and apologies to everyone as they brought ALL back on line. And Elon then started his opening remarks over again. I suspect you arrived after all that... ?

 

[Krugerrand]

That was all post the problem which occurred in the first minutes. They even had to have everyone hold for a few minutes but stay on line while they switched systems from multi-Mics new one to previous system. If you did hear everything, then you also heard the silence during those minutes and explanation and apologies to everyone as they brought ALL back on line. And Elon then started his opening remarks over again. I suspect you arrived after all that... ?

Nope, heard that beginning discussion too. Don't know what to else to say, everything was clear as a bell today. *shrug*

 

[Reciprocity]

Shorts get roofied

Tesla Finishes First Solar Roofs—Including Elon's House

That looks freaking awesome, but it's a pretty simple roof with straight gables. Want to see a fancier roof with lots of dormers and valleys.

 

[Reciprocity]

Mark Spiegel is ... covering? And finding another hobby?

View attachment 239386

That must be a fake speigal account, no cussing and no mention of Ponzi schemes.

 

[doctoxics]

To be fair, it's highly unlikely this rate will continue through 2017. It will drop off a bit after the delivery event buzz dies down. But looking a year from now, the reservation rate may have returned to 1800/day. It does show the demand is there though.

Once model 3 is in thousands of owners hands and in show rooms, reservations will accelerate. As I and others in this forum have proposed, even before the first Model 3 reveal, reservations will exceed one million before the end of this year. Looks like we are well on the way.

 

[JRP3]

Once model 3 is in thousands of owners hands and in show rooms, reservations will accelerate. As I and others in this forum have proposed, even before the first Model 3 reveal, reservations will exceed one million before the end of this year. Looks like we are well on the way.

Yes, real cars on the roads in the hands of more "average" owners will only accelerate the demand for all of Tesla's products.

 

[Mkorpal]

Once model 3 is in thousands of owners hands and in show rooms, reservations will accelerate. As I and others in this forum have proposed, even before the first Model 3 reveal, reservations will exceed one million before the end of this year. Looks like we are well on the way.

I agree that they will pick back up again, but in the short term, I expect that 1800 a day rate to drop significantly as the Model 3 drops out of the media cycle.

 

[Fallenone]

It says negative $100M. What does that mean?

ZEV credit revenue recognized -3.3%?

Because it's reconciling non-GAAP and GAAP. ZEV doesn't count towards GAAP, therefore needs to be subtracted from non-GAAP hence the negative. EPS beats estimate thanks to the ZEV.

 

[22522]

If Elon is committed to accelerating the transition to sustainable transportation, he did a nice job of setting the table during the call today.

I don't know if he can, or wants to do this, but it would help accelerate the transition over what he will do if he takes his guidance from those analysts (yeah, I know the guidance is supposed to be going the other way, but audiences influence Elon). Here are the next steps:

1. Introduce the analysts to the concept of Return on Investment (ROI). All their questions on margin indicate that they really don't get ROI, or have a real interest in growth or customer acquisition.
2. Recognize that a focus on margin presumes a fixed or limited market size and aligns the company in opposition to customers - ends up being a low growth self fulfilling prophesy. Spend a lot of time with customers arguing about money. Sours relationships, and destroys speed, and increases costs. If you focus on margins (and dividends), Tesla will end up like... maybe General Electric. Why would you want that?
3. Focus on inventory turns, speed, cycle times. These have a direct impact on ROI, because they reduce the Investment (denominator, we know they know that word from today).

Speed, Speed, Speed makes acceleration.

Margin causes hesitation in the sales process. Bezos says, "Your margin is my opportunity."

Does Elon really want to play margin games (twiddle his thumbs) while waiting for Amazon to be the real power behind the transition to sustainable transportation?

 

[techmaven]

Getting started with the Google Hangout... please PM me if you want to join with your Google Hangout ID.

 

[sundaymorning]

I agree that they will pick back up again, but in the short term, I expect that 1800 a day rate to drop significantly as the Model 3 drops out of the media cycle.

The media cycle drop you mentioned could be offset by new M3 owners spreading word by mouth to F&F's, these owners will grow exponentially q.oq. and are much more influential than the media.

 

[MXWing]

I encourage all bulls to not gloat.

All of us have been wrong before, and it's time to invite bears to our side.

Many of them have lost a lot of money this year. We may be talking about people's retirement savings and their kids' college tuitions.

This is not the time to make fun of them.

View attachment 239353

Sorry VA. Strong disagreement here, first time actually.

Shorts are taking food out of -my- children's mouth while making the world a worser place. It's not an accident to short a stock. They deserve every penny lost.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I am saying that even Elon, with his unmatched ambition, will not be able to spend the cash Tesla will be generating by 4Q18.

Bring in all the "disagrees" while you can, because y'all will be agreeing with me on May 2, 2018.