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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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Congratulations to the longs.
I don't think I'll be coming to the party tonight.
A bit beat up after losing 70% in the 3 day $80 drop, felt more comfortable sitting out for the ER expecting most if any gains I made to be nullified by the drop in IV (calls) and protect from further huge downside 300-280). This also felt like the least probably outcome by a longshot even a positive of 4% was well accounted for in my decision, but not +9% from my sale price.
Still up okay for the year but feels bad. Sold a day late at 322 too. *sigh*
Guess it's mostly just 2019+ holdings from here, calling the ups and downs is impossible.

My useful contribution, in hindsight this felt like a huge bear trap. Makes you wonder if Elon was purposefully bashing the stock. What was it, 3-4 talks in a row saying the stock was too high, we're in production hell etc etc. He sold me on the idea that he would NOT go full on hero mode during the ER/CC and would fumble through as per lately. Don't get me wrong I love Elon, but if he was trying to fool shorts, he fooled me too.

Time to scramble and find a decent re-entry point :/

edit (I've felt Tesla has been and is still undervalued, it was very hard to sell. I'm not buying ANY of the short arguments, but I do believe at times they have a very good handle on the direction of the SP along with tagging onto macro concerns TSLA certainly takes the elevator down, today is the first day up riding the elevator I believe since I've been invested in TSLA.)
It's a hard lesson to learn to buy and hold for the long haul. I missed out on 50% of gains in my portfolio in 2012-2013 just because I traded too much. I bought into TSLA in 2013 in the $60s and sold in the $90s, and there are a few other stocks that I took a loss on because I didn't hold and ride out the short term dips. I started accumulating TSLA again in 2014, I still traded a little but never touched my long term hold shares, and I kept adding. I was still tempted to sell even a couple of times during this year's run-up. Every time I have to remind myself of the lesson to never do short term trading. And now I've recovered the loss from 2012-2013 because I didn't sell any TSLA during this year's run-up and dips.

Edit: I was down 50% in 2012-2013 compared with a theoretical portfolio where I just bought index fund and held
 
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I assume you're talking to me... so here you go... untouched for 3 weeks now... looks like that downward trend is real... it's at $315 tomorrow... upper trend at $339... max pain's pretty much right in the middle of the two... unless we find out tomorrow they lost all their cash to solar city or something... it'll probably just wobble between these.

View attachment 239200

EDIT: and then remember when I said "could be heading into a bear flag" 3 weeks ago... that's what that looks like... with the bottom potential in the $260s... not saying that's what's going to happen... just that'd be the continuation off the first drop.

This chart makes more sense than yours! - Tell us oh wise @myusername what's gonna happen next?

20525452_10155449158283971_583137938898357786_n.jpg
 
So the weird thing is...

Us Tesla investors may accurately see this delay in capex as bad news. But it will NOT show up in the arsenal of FUD from the short-sellers. Because "Some of Tesla's suppliers couldn't keep up with Tesla and Tesla didn't have to pay them yet" doesn't fit the *narrative* they're trying to push. So the shorts and bears wil ignore it.
Maybe it's related to the rumor of delay in April, or delay to the 100kwh pack in Apr/May, or that they had to manually build 1000s of M3 packs. Anyway they have visibility now and Elon sounds really upbeat about reaching 5K/wk by the end of 2017, so whatever it was, apparently Tesla was prepared, and they handled it.
 
Citation needed. I don't believe that. Two of those are not deposits. Tesla doesn't get their hands on the trade-in until the new Tesla is delivered. Duties paid by the customer are not in Tesla's hands, or even if Tesla acts as an agent, it's only for a couple of days between arrival at dock and delivery.

Copy/paste in every quarterly report from Tesla...

2017Q1 10-Q note 10 page 18 said:
Customer deposits primarily consisted of cash payments from customers at the time they place an order or reservation for a vehicle and additional payments up to the point of delivery, including the fair values of any customer trade-in vehicles that are applicable toward a new vehicle purchase.

I don't know how large cars paid in full and not delivered are but I wasn't required to pay until the keys were handed over so I expect it's insignificant.

You are not required, but you can. Especially in countries where it is not customary to handle (paper) cheques, people will do a money transfer. And generally a bit in advance since it may take an unknown number of days to clear that large amount between different banks (f.e. any transaction over 15k IIRC, European banks have a duty to make sure that the money is not laundered etc...)

This quarter we also had testimonies on the forum from people paying the car in full so that Tesla could put it on transport and then count it as delivered as soon as it leaves the lot. We had these testimonies on the forum because as happens with Tesla logistics, things got f*d' up and even though they paid the full amount, the car actually didn't leave the service center. Resulting in angry posters and the usual cycle of answers of 1) disbelief 2) 'my delivery was amazing' 3) blaming the reporter
 
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Very sorry you are missing out on the fireworks but thanks for sharing this. It's always fun to crow about great calls but we learn as much or more from missteps -- either our own or others'.
Not entirely sure what to learn here! Besides deleverage when high and load up when low, but determining those figures are an entirely different beast. High relative to what it's been and miss out on the big run?

You can't blame Elon for people intentionally misquoting him, or quoting without the context. For the "stock too high" quotes, he was very careful to say "if you just look at the past...", and for "production hell" he was talking to the employees ferchrissake! It was a motivational speech! This is what convinced me to buy more calls and sell some puts.

I don't blame anybody for my trading mistakes, but I'm not blinded enough by my love for the company that I didn't see "the stock price is higher than we have any right to deserve" which was somewhat amended by a tweet saying he meant the stock price was high relative to where it's been (uhm, okay seems kinda obvious 3xx is higher than 2xx, absolutely no reason to even point that out) His specific words were very hard to retract imo. Regardless of the intent, absolutely the bears will twist it and run with it! That's what they do.

I'm all for Tesla and Elon, not putting my money anywhere else. But don't think every single thing they do/say are ideal, especially for trading purposes. Whom one is speaking to also seems irrelevant with social media these days and easily used out of context. Still many other things he could have said. Production hell brings back memories of serious production issues, supplier issues, hubris :)
It's a fresh start on new product lines, with much more experience and designed for ease of manufacturing. It cannot be production hell like it was for the X. (Sounded pretty damned positive on the ER call not one week later.)

I do try to take in any meaningful bad news, I don't just research Tesla to further my bias. It's still the most promising stock I am aware of for the next decade! TBH probably most fun company to research and follow anyways.

Anyways, barring macro news, looks like green light for TSLA to kick some further ass?

It's a hard lesson to learn to buy and hold for the long haul. I missed out on 50% of gains in my portfolio in 2012-2013 just because I traded too much. I bought into TSLA in 2013 in the $60s and sold in the $90s, and there are a few other stocks that I took a loss on because I didn't hold and ride out the short term dips. I started accumulating TSLA again in 2014, I still traded a little but never touched my long term hold shares, and I kept adding. I was still tempted to sell even a couple of times during this year's run-up. Every time I have to remind myself of the lesson to never do short term trading. And now I've recovered the loss from 2012-2013 because I didn't sell any TSLA during this year's run-up and dips.

Probably less stressful anyways :)
 
Us Tesla investors may accurately see this delay in capex as bad news. But it will NOT show up in the arsenal of FUD from the short-sellers. Because "Some of Tesla's suppliers couldn't keep up with Tesla and Tesla didn't have to pay them yet" doesn't fit the *narrative* they're trying to push. So the shorts and bears wil ignore it.

Short sellers are running so low on arguments that they can't leave this negative off the table. They are desperate for arguments.
 
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Yes, though honestly I think COBOL is a very easy language to learn. And pretty straightforward to work with if you have a basic understanding of both structured programming and machine language. If I ever needed another career, converting COBOL programs to modernity might be a fun one --
Ought to be able to write a AWK script that does it for you...

My understanding of AWK architecture (stream processing with no memory management, and pipes through standard input and standard output) is a key source of disagreement about what is possible.
 
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You're adorable. There's absolutely no chance we see a dividend in 2019. Virtually no chance in 2020.

2018? That's not insane, nor is it ludicrous. It's flat-out maximum plaid.
As Marty McFly once said to his future father, after pretending to be Darth Vadar from the Planet Vulcan:

Let's just keep all this dividend talk to ourselves. ;)
 
There was a remarkable difference in Elon's mood between the M3 unveiling event and today's call.

My hunch is that they were seriously concerned about MS demand, but several days after the unveiling these concerns were blown away by the uptick of MS demand.

It is also very telling that incoming M3 orders exceeded the rate of production planned for the end of next year (1.8k x 7 = 12.6k orders per week).

BTW overall rate of M3 cancellations since opening reservations were at very modest 12.2%. [ (518-455) / 518 ].

So the bear demand problem narrative was dealt a serous blow (again)
 
I just want to point out a little detail regarding the 1800 new reservations per day:

people are making them knowing that they won't get the car until late 2018, and won't qualify for the tax incentive...

Edit: 25% of tax incentive ($1875) still remains in 1H'19, but the point is still that tax incentive phasing out will likely not kill the demand for M3.
 
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I don't see anyone here talking about how payment terms times volume generates working capital. Or, in other words, the more cars they make, the less money they need.

Let's try some math.

If we lump all costs of the car into "supplier payments" due in 60 days. Say a car costs $30,000.
And we say it takes 20 days to build the car, and 30 days to receive payment. (50 days) And you sell it for $40,000.

Each car you build burdens you with 10 days of $30,000 in working capital and $10,000 of gross margin.

If you make a car 36 times a year (360 days / 10 days), you hold the $30 K for a full year. (And pocket $360,000)

But they are not making 36 cars a year, but rather more like 360,000 cars. So we need to add some zeros... 4.

So you hold 300 million dollars and pocket 3.6 billion dollars. ( I think the math is right, but it is late here).

Let's see what happens if it only takes 10 days (instead of 20) to build the car, so one car gives you 20 days of $30K working capital. Now you have to deal with 600 million dollars of extra cash.

If you can get paid in 20 days, you are stuck with about a billion dollars in working capital.

But this is brittle. If there is friction in the sales process, like, say, you trip up your customers by demanding $1000 if they refuse to worship the car by washing a black car everyday - now you have introduced a religious argument to your sales process. That adds 10 days to the sales cycle, or more, because they have to pray about it - good stewardship of money and the environment are now in conflict.

Suddenly a billion dollars in working capital disappears, "Poof!"

All because, in pursuit of margin, you added friction and religion and manipulation and control, and all the things that would cause a wife to divorce you, to a sales process, because you have some vision of a smooth running line making a lot of black cars, where in fact, for star-belly reasons you are making almost zero black cars (only for fleet sales, because you don't respect the customer's resale value the way Honda does).

Anyway, if you focus on making time delays small rather margins large, money shows up on your doorstep and green vehicles show up on customer's doorstep. Everybody is happy. It is no longer zero sum.
 
There was a remarkable difference in Elon's mood between the M3 unveiling event and today's call.

My hunch is that they were seriously concerned about MS demand, but several days after the unveiling these concerns were blown away by the uptick of MS demand.

It is also very telling that incoming M3 orders exceeded the rate of production planned for the end of next year (1.8k x 7 = 12.6k orders per week).

BTW overall rate of M3 cancellations since opening reservations were at very modest 12.2%. [ (518-455) / 518 ].

So the bear demand problem narrative was dealt a serous blow (again)

Wonder how many of those cancellations are conversions to S or X?
 
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