2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Ameliorate]

Congratulations to the longs.
I don't think I'll be coming to the party tonight.
A bit beat up after losing 70% in the 3 day $80 drop, felt more comfortable sitting out for the ER expecting most if any gains I made to be nullified by the drop in IV (calls) and protect from further huge downside 300-280). This also felt like the least probably outcome by a longshot even a positive of 4% was well accounted for in my decision, but not +9% from my sale price.
Still up okay for the year but feels bad. Sold a day late at 322 too. *sigh*
Guess it's mostly just 2019+ holdings from here, calling the ups and downs is impossible.

My useful contribution, in hindsight this felt like a huge bear trap. Makes you wonder if Elon was purposefully bashing the stock. What was it, 3-4 talks in a row saying the stock was too high, we're in production hell etc etc. He sold me on the idea that he would NOT go full on hero mode during the ER/CC and would fumble through as per lately. Don't get me wrong I love Elon, but if he was trying to fool shorts, he fooled me too.

Time to scramble and find a decent re-entry point :/

edit (I've felt Tesla has been and is still undervalued, it was very hard to sell. I'm not buying ANY of the short arguments, but I do believe at times they have a very good handle on the direction of the SP along with tagging onto macro concerns TSLA certainly takes the elevator down, today is the first day up riding the elevator I believe since I've been invested in TSLA.)

 

[GoTslaGo]

I spoke to a person with more familiarity with both rich people and Dr. Seuss.

He explained that it was a social experiment where "You will never see a black Model 3."

Something about "A black model 3 will be like a non-star belly." "People who buy the black risk social exclusion. Nobody who can afford a Tesla will risk that exclusion. There will be no black model 3s."

To test that, we can look at the handover event...
View attachment 239322

I see about 5 or so black ones. I think he would assert that these are employees and not typical Tesla customers - they don't know the rules, yet.

He might be onto something.

But you know at the end of the book the Sneetchs knew that the stars meant nothing:

"But McBean was quite wrong. I'm quite happy to say
That the Sneetches got really quite smart that day,
The day they decided that Sneetches are Sneetches
And no kind of Sneetch is the best on the beaches.
That day, all the Sneetches forgot about stars
And whether they had one, or not, upon thars."

Dr. Seuss (The Sneetches)

 

[EinSV]

Congratulations to the longs.
I don't think I'll be coming to the party tonight.
A bit beat up after losing 70% in the 3 day $80 drop, felt more comfortable sitting out for the ER expecting most if any gains I made to be nullified by the drop in IV (calls) and protect from further huge downside 300-280). This also felt like the least probably outcome by a longshot even a positive of 4% was well accounted for in my decision, but not +9% from my sale price.
Still up okay for the year but feels bad. Sold a day late at 322 too. *sigh*
Guess it's mostly just 2019+ holdings from here, calling the ups and downs is impossible.

My useful contribution, in hindsight this felt like a huge bear trap. Makes you wonder if Elon was purposefully bashing the stock. What was it, 3-4 talks in a row saying the stock was too high, we're in production hell etc etc. He sold me on the idea that he would NOT go full on hero mode during the ER/CC and would fumble through as per lately. Don't get me wrong I love Elon, but if he was trying to fool shorts, he fooled me too.

Time to scramble and find a decent re-entry point :/

edit (I've felt Tesla has been and is still undervalued, it was very hard to sell. I'm not buying ANY of the short arguments, but I do believe at times they have a very good handle on the direction of the SP along with tagging onto macro concerns TSLA certainly takes the elevator down, today is the first day up riding the elevator I believe since I've been invested in TSLA.)

Very sorry you are missing out on the fireworks but thanks for sharing this. It's always fun to crow about great calls but we learn as much or more from missteps -- either our own or others'.

 

[jhm]

Spiegel sabotaging the audio...it's all he's got left.

 

[ClownMouth]

It wasn't the new system. But maybe you all need to check your own listening devices, because I could hear the call crystal clear. Every word.

Same here. Actually could hear every word - every time - even clearer than anyone on this thread, all while practicing kicking 60 yard field goals with each foot. Double check your listening devices, guys.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Bring in all the "disagrees" while you can, because y'all will be agreeing with me on May 2, 2018.

Just to clarify on my disagree. I agree that Tesla could be profitable in Q2 2018, but I disagree on the dividend. When a company issues a dividend, they're publicizing that they don't have anything they could do with that money to grow the company. Apple did that after Jobs' passing, and I'd imagine TSLA doing that after it becomes a $1T company and owning a profitable chunk of the transportation-as-a-service space and energy market, but not before. Any unspent profit will simply become part of a war-chest to battle the remnants of the fossil fuel gangs

 

[30seconds]

Well I know what speigal will say, Ponzi, Ponzi... And Ponzi scheme.. Oh and a lot of cussing.

and that he actually isn't that far down on his short position because.... profit

 

[30seconds]

Just to clarify on my disagree. I agree that Tesla could be profitable in Q2 2018, but I disagree on the dividend. When a company issues a dividend, they're publicizing that they don't have anything they could do with that money to grow the company. Apple did that after Jobs' passing, and I'd imagine TSLA doing that after it becomes a $1T company and owning a profitable chunk of the transportation-as-a-service space and energy market, but not before. Any unspent profit will simply become part of a war-chest to battle the remnants of the fossil fuel gangs

That's when Tesla buys SpaceX and funnels the excess cash to colonize Mars.

Master Plan part 3

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

That's when Tesla buys SpaceX and funnels the excess cash to colonize Mars.

Master Plan part 3

I suspect SpaceX to be worth $1T at that time as well, as it'll own a satellite internet constellation as well as the medium thru super-heavy lift launch markets with initial runs of the MCT starting.

 

[neroden]

Is there a source for the solar roof delay? I was still under the impression that they were starting production soon but haven't really been keeping up with it?

They're still onlhy producing it at the "pilot factory" in Fremont. I believe they said they'll be producing it at Buffalo in November. Obviously, it will take some months to ramp up in Buffalo. I suspect from multiple comments about fast iteration that the product is still being redesigned, i.e. this will be like Powerwall 1 and 2 and the mass production version will be version 2 already.

 

[Alketi]

Is anyone a Morgan Stanley client? I heard Adam Jonas updated his notes. Would be interesting to see what he said.

 

[ggr]

My useful contribution, in hindsight this felt like a huge bear trap. Makes you wonder if Elon was purposefully bashing the stock. What was it, 3-4 talks in a row saying the stock was too high, we're in production hell etc etc. He sold me on the idea that he would NOT go full on hero mode during the ER/CC and would fumble through as per lately. Don't get me wrong I love Elon, but if he was trying to fool shorts, he fooled me too.

You can't blame Elon for people intentionally misquoting him, or quoting without the context. For the "stock too high" quotes, he was very careful to say "if you just look at the past...", and for "production hell" he was talking to the employees ferchrissake! It was a motivational speech! This is what convinced me to buy more calls and sell some puts.

 

[jhm]

Heard in yoga class today,

"People in yoga used to seek union with god, but now they just want a Tesla."

 

[neroden]

But aren't COBOL programmes now high paid because there are so few how know it?!

Yes, though honestly I think COBOL is a very easy language to learn. And pretty straightforward to work with if you have a basic understanding of both structured programming and machine language. If I ever needed another career, converting COBOL programs to modernity might be a fun one -- I'm good at that sort of stuff.

(By contrast, I would not like to debug or edit something written in MDL. Or, worse, one of the more perverse minicomputer machine languages; some of those are truly awful.)

 

[neroden]

It's because everyone assumes and thinks linearly. Whereas technologies improve exponentially.

That's not really all it is. Yes, that's *part* of it.

Though not all technologies improve exponentially. Autopilot will be much more linear, because it isn't one problem, it's a long list of different problems. Tracking lanes on the highway is not the same problem as identifying deer on the side of the road at night on a rural road, etc. etc.

I saw a talk by Ray Kurzweil who described the progress sequencing the Human Genome. When it took 7 years to sequence 1%, everyone thought "oh no, it'll take another hundred years", where Kurzweil said "Good. We're almost done." Because 1% is only seven doublings from 100%. And, in fact, it was completed 8 years later.

And then we went back to linear or sublinear progress in trying to figure out what those sequences *meant*. Don't get me wrong, the sequencing was useful, but it was really only one step in a much larger program of biological research.

I'll tell you the other aspect. People assume and think in terms of smooth changes, whether linear, quadratic, or exponential... But economics has sharp cusps, crossover points.

So if driving electric costs $100/X miles and driving gasoline costs $99/X miles we will see lots and lots of gasoline cars and few electric cars. But then if driving electric costs $99/X miles and driving gasoilne costs $100/X miles, we will see lots and lots of electric cars and few gasoline cars.

We go from "all one" to "all the other" basically overnight when the price signals cross. You go from "coal is the cheapest, everyone is using coal for power" to "all coal power plants are losing money and closing or asking for government bailouts" in the course of a few MONTHS.

 

[schonelucht]

It says negative $100M. What does that mean?

ZEV credit revenue recognized -3.3%?

ZEV credit revenue is obviously positive. The minus 3.3% is to back it out of overall gross margin, to get to gross margin without ZEV credit. The latter is an important metric for investors trying to model next quarters since ZEV sales are not as consistent.

 

[neroden]

Once they are in people's hands more widespread-- this will easily double or triple the amount of reservations

Patience, patience. Remember there probably won't be more than 2000 on the road until late September. Large enough numbers for serious word-of-mouth? November, I figure.

 

[neroden]

Does sound like equipment suppliers missed a significant amount of milestones planned for 2017H1 though. Could be they missed with a few days and it's no biggie, but still...

So the weird thing is...

Us Tesla investors may accurately see this delay in capex as bad news. But it will NOT show up in the arsenal of FUD from the short-sellers. Because "Some of Tesla's suppliers couldn't keep up with Tesla and Tesla didn't have to pay them yet" doesn't fit the *narrative* they're trying to push. So the shorts and bears wil ignore it.

 

[neroden]

Trade-in values, cars paid in full but not yet delivered and Chinese import duties paid by customer at import time all count toward that number as well

Citation needed. I don't believe that. Two of those are not deposits. Tesla doesn't get their hands on the trade-in until the new Tesla is delivered. Duties paid by the customer are not in Tesla's hands, or even if Tesla acts as an agent, it's only for a couple of days between arrival at dock and delivery.

I don't know how large cars paid in full and not delivered are but I wasn't required to pay until the keys were handed over so I expect it's insignificant.

 

[neroden]

$3 billion in cash with expected capital expenditures $2 billion during the second half of 2017. The coming Gigafactories won't be cheap. Anyone else expect a capital raise in Q4 2017 or sooner?

Depends on the stock price, but I'm guessing no. I suspect he'll want to publish Q4 2017 financial results, or at least delivery numbers first -- they should be impressive, and bring the stock up to a level where the capital raise will be less dilutive. I think Q1 2018 is much more likely for capital raising.