2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[FredTMC]

I think it's Schuler only. The major press manufacturers are listed here.

Global Mechanical Presses Industry 2016 Market Research Report
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/global-mechanical-presses-industry-2016-market-research-vivi-chen

Scroll to the bottom for listings

Thanks. Yup. Agreed. Schuler is likely the Press supplier.

As you'll recall Tesla had a big problem getting the existing big press moved to Fremont.
It was going to take the mfg or vendor a long time to set it up so tesla decided to set it up themselves.
They got it done much faster than the vendor's estimate.

I learned about this on the tesla factory tour. they were proud to talk about it

 

[3Victoria]

....
I remain v concerned about Elon's statement that biggest risk is the Dies and Press supplier.

If that is their biggest problem, then it is likely good news, as EM said "there are lots of machine shops".

 

[FredTMC]

If that is their biggest problem, then it is likely good news, as EM said "there are lots of machine shops".

I suppose... but begs the question: When will Tesla finally start stamping Model3 body panels? Kinda hard to assemble alphas without the body panels

Final assembly line is NOT required, but body panels are ummm. "essential"

I honestly assumed tesla would have alphas by March/April (Tens of cars)
And then Betas by June/July.

Maybe I've been smokin' something big...

 

[mmd]

Diesel ban in effect in Oslo starting tuesday: Google Translate

This rule has been on the books for a while now, but this is the first time it's being used. Diesel cars will be prohibited from driving on municipal roads in Oslo municipality between 6 am and 10 pm starting Tuseday and continuing until further notice. This should be interesting to watch.

Many people will likely be very vocal in their protests, some will drive anyway. (Around 40% of cars use diesel, so tens of thousands of people will be very inconvenienced.) I just hope the police will be out in force.

The link says, ban is from Tuesday to Thursday, but it can change. You made it sound like it is a permanent ban.
For a decade, European governments gave tax breaks to promote diesel cars as it produces less CO2, and now they are telling people they can't drive the cars govt asked them to buy? Norwegian govt sure has its own whims.

When the urgent need not present anymore, we will of course lift the ban. Such forecasts seem today as the prohibition against driving diesel cars last until Thursday, but it might just change, add Davidsen to.

Here is the story in Britain.
Diesel car drivers 'betrayed' as EU cracks down on Britain over air pollution

 

[mmd]

I was in favor of rescuing the Big 3 back in 2009 but I think that was a mistake. Instead of propping up a fossil that no longer deserved to exist we should have let it die and out of it's ashes other, more evolved and stronger companies, like Tesla, would have taken over and filled in the void. Think how much more powerful Tesla would have been if 2 of the big 3 went belly up. Tesla would have zero competition and all new investment would funnel into it.

Instead the company we rescued is doing its hardest to kill off Tesla and keep us addicted to oil and gas

Conspiracy theory much? You should start a change.org petition for Trump to bail out Tesla. That will make it fair and square
PS: Please check GM ticker in 2008-09 period

 

[erthquake]

I suppose... but begs the question: When will Tesla finally start stamping Model3 body panels? Kinda hard to assemble alphas without the body panels.

This is my question as well. Anyone have any insight on this?

 

[sundaymorning]

@FredTMC how did Tesla get its MS beta and alphas?

 

[racer26]

I suppose... but begs the question: When will Tesla finally start stamping Model3 body panels? Kinda hard to assemble alphas without the body panels

Final assembly line is NOT required, but body panels are ummm. "essential"

I honestly assumed tesla would have alphas by March/April (Tens of cars)
And then Betas by June/July.

Maybe I've been smokin' something big...

You're confused - we already have Model 3 Alphas. They're the two working prototypes we've seen, and potentially others we haven't. We know that they are indeed the alphas, because Elon's CEO grant for that milestone vested on 3/31/2016.

You don't need mass-production stamping dies to build the alphas or the betas. You need them only to build the production-validation prototypes that come right before mass production, and are produced on the final line (their purpose is to prove that the line can build satisfactory products).

 

[Yggdrasill]

The link says, ban is from Tuesday to Thursday, but it can change. You made it sound like it is a permanent ban.

It's until further notice. Weather permitting, that may be wednesday or thursday.

For a decade, European governments gave tax breaks to promote diesel cars as it produces less CO2, and now they are telling people they can't drive the cars govt asked them to buy? Norwegian govt sure has its own whims.

The limitations have been a decade in the making. It is true that the goverment has previously recommended that people buy diesel cars due to the low CO2 emissions, but those recommendations ended around 2006. Newer studies show NOx and particulates are much worse than what was thought at the time. Especially in cold weather, like we have in Norway. It's insane that the emissions control system starts being turned off around 17C/62F on many cars: https://www.transportenvironment.or...ons/2016_05_Dieselgate_continues_briefing.pdf ("Maybe" this has something to do with the NEDC testing, which is performed at +20-30C...)

Testing has shown that many cars emit 10-20-30+ times as much NOx as the official numbers in real life driving. Like the 1.5l Renault Kadjar, which has the official rating of 21 mg NOx/km, and has been in one test been measured to emit 1521 mg NOx/km.

At some point you can't let the mistakes of the past control your actions in the present. It's true that the politiciens have failed utterly in preventing death traps from being sold, but the only thing that can be done is to try to fix it. This may inconvenience those who bought diesel cars on the recommendation of the goverment, back in 2006-ish, but there's little that can be done about that.

One thing that is being done is that NEDC is being replaced with WLTP (which at least includes testing at +14C), something I mentioned earlier. 2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

Another thing is to start to try to cut down on emissions, particularly in the cities. Last year saw the following measures:

- Bans on diesel cars in Oslo when weather demands it.
- Diesel taxes increased by 0.35 NOK per liter. (15 cents/USG)
- Increased toll fees when driving into Oslo, an extra 60 cents for diesel cars.

I'm sure 2017 will bring exciting new measures to get rid of the fossil cars.

 

[Yggdrasill]

It's also important to keep an eye on the long-term goal. Which is to stop selling fossil cars in Norway in 2025.

2025 isn't that far into the future, so every year needs to be increasingly painful for fossil car owners and buyers.

 

[Fallenone]

I suppose... but begs the question: When will Tesla finally start stamping Model3 body panels? Kinda hard to assemble alphas without the body panels

Final assembly line is NOT required, but body panels are ummm. "essential"

I honestly assumed tesla would have alphas by March/April (Tens of cars)
And then Betas by June/July.

Maybe I've been smokin' something big...

Q3 letter says "critical long lead time equipment" has been "sourced". It apparently hasn't arrived yet. Let's see what Q4 letter says.

 

[Cosmacelf]

As far as the mid year Model 3 expectation date goes, what Elon said was that July 1st was an internal company goal to have all parts be ready to ship in production quantities. Looks like Tesla itself will miss that goal with body panels. At any rate, July 1st was never an expected date, optimistic or anything else. It was always, let's all push for July 1st and then deal with whoever is late.

In my mind, it was always going to be end of this year in small quantities was the optimistic date. That can slip too.

 

[schonelucht]

Full year guidance is going to be interesting. If Tesla is still on track, it would be in Elon's nature to confirm an aggressive ramping schedule towards the second half of this year on the Model 3.

 

[schonelucht]

The problem : even if they aren't on track, it's still in Elon's nature to confirm an aggressive ramping schedule...

 

[Tslynk67]

Diesel ban in effect in Oslo starting tuesday: Google Translate

This rule has been on the books for a while now, but this is the first time it's being used. Diesel cars will be prohibited from driving on municipal roads in Oslo municipality between 6 am and 10 pm starting Tuseday and continuing until further notice. This should be interesting to watch.

Many people will likely be very vocal in their protests, some will drive anyway. (Around 40% of cars use diesel, so tens of thousands of people will be very inconvenienced.) I just hope the police will be out in force.

Here's the article in the FT - love that the article photo has not one, but two Model S in it

Subscribe to read

 

[jbcarioca]

... You need them only to build the production-validation prototypes that come right before mass production, and are produced on the final line (their purpose is to prove that the line can build satisfactory products).

Even in the bad old days of annual model changes stamping modifications were very rapid and required modest proving. Simply, a few stamping in the numerically controlled stamping world prove the point. It works or it does not. Initial nstallation of robotic stamping of a given type is another matter entirely, but Tesla already has proven the type. Now it is a matter of more capacity to produce more volume. This was what I was told by an old friend who is a tool &I die maker in southern Michigan. He may be in error, but I seriously doubt it. BTW, he says his own skills are "almost obsolete" because "robotic machines building machines are faster, cheaper, more precise and more accurate". He further says it is devilishly difficult to design all this so that it really works, and few people can do that. He claims Tesla and BMW are the current leaders among car builders but others are learning quickly. He's a big fan of FANUC FWIW.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Here's the article in the FT - love that the article photo has not one, but two Model S in it

Subscribe to read

It's behind a paywall. But the picture isn't unusual - you can hardly take a picture in Oslo without there being a Tesla somewhere in the picture.

 

[RobStark]

It's behind a paywall. But the picture isn't unusual - you can hardly take a picture in Oslo without there being a Tesla somewhere in the picture.

Google
Diesel cars to be banned from Oslo city centre

Then click, answer 2-3 questions on a survey then you can read.

 

[googlepeakoil]

"Tripin" Trip "Chowder" Chowdery strikes again

Trip Chowdhry claims that by fiscal 2020, the SuperChargers will add $2.6 billion to revenue,

Tesla Motors: Supercharged?

On a seperate thread - I deconstructed his analysis with this (reposted as fixed some typos and formatting errors)...

I've heard this guy speak on conference calls - and I'm frequently shocked by what he comes up with. But the most recent takes the biscuit, hits the ball out of the park in terms of nonsensical over-ambitious, total inane rubbish - from a WALL STREET ANALYST.
The what - he predicts $2.62bn revenue from Superchargers by 2020 of which most will be profit
The maths - based on 1.5million cars, $0.16 avg per minute at supercharger for 30minutes every day. Which is $4.80 per vehicle, or $7.2m a day.
Why this is a TERRIBLE assumption!!!
A. Let's forget Tesla said it's not going to be trying to make it profit generating (missed/ignored by idiot Trip).
B. 1.5million cars - each charging for 30mins. Given most will be charging at rush hour you will need 100,000 supercharger bays!!! What have we now, 5,000? So apparently it's going to expand by 20 fold in 3 years!!!
C. How can "most be profit" when. You have to pay for your electricity. The solar panels on the stalls generate a paltry amount of electricity compared with Supercharger current. At 120kW that's the average consumption of 60-120 houses (dependent on locale / time of year). Covering 1 house with solarpanels is about the same as a house uses in a year - and last I checked a supercharger bay is smaller than a house. Also about 5% of superchargers have solarpanels. So basically Tesla is buying electricity off the grid - maybe at a slight discount.
Lets break down the other factsOk - breaking it down: Him vs my expectation.
- 1.5m vehicles. I reckon only 1m. So 66% of Trip
- Every car going to the supercharger, every day. Probably not. Most charge at home. Lets say every 5 days. 20% Charging every day for 30minutes would give you 150-200miles of range. Most people don't do quarter that - averaged over 7 days a week!
- Every car paying for it's use. NO. 100,000 will have it free - and thus likely to use it more than people who got it free. ALL will have it free for the first 400kW / 1000 miles. So lets assume 20% aren't paying. So 80% are paying.

Times all of the above percentages together and you come out to about 10% of what Trip said. He's out by a full MAGNITUDE of 10.

- Finally- building the network + cost/maintenance. Each SC costs circa $500,000 for construction for maybe 10 SC's cars. High-power, reinforced copper cables from a transformer are expensive. Then you got to dig up areas of the road, ground, re-tarmac, supply 100s of the 10kW transformers (each SC requires 15 to deliver 150kW). etc to get the elec back to DC. While they may get more efficient at building them each is also getting bigger. Building the number out to 100,000 on the above assumptions would cost Tesla $5bn. Which is about 2x this years total capex - including the GF.

Thanks to Bill Maurer on SA for crying BS on Trip's logic - and for some of the maths/facts. The rest are my assumptions (100,000 SC's, $500k per SC install, the %ages) that Bill missed.

This needs to be spread. People count on Trip for investment advice! He should NOT have a job in this industry. This is DotCom era fictional rubbish!

 

[Rarity]

@googlepeakoil -- perhaps he assumes that many or most of the vehicles will be in Tesla Network and thereby use the superchargers heavily.