Still very conservative IMHO, but even OPEC now sees there is no escape :
" Focusing on the penetration of EVs in the passenger car segment, an alternative sensitivity has been developed: the Sensitivity Case. In this sensitivity, a more optimistic view is taken on the penetration of EVs. Globally, it is assumed that annual EV sales reach 80 million by 2040 (Figure 7.4). This would mean that three out of every five cars sold in 2040 would be electric. In regions such as OECD Europe, OECD America, China and India, it is assumed that two out of every three passenger cars sold would be electric by 2040.
Under this sensitivity, there would be 516 million EVs on the road at the end of the forecast period. While it is interesting to analyze how oil demand would be impacted in this sensitivity, it is highly unlikely that EVs will penetrate the passenger car segment with this strength in less than 24 years. The level of investment, in terms of both the replacement of car fleet and the expansion of required infrastructure, as well as the required government support, would be rather prohibiting. Nevertheless, several countries have publicly stated their intention to achieve an even higher share of EVs in new sales than assumed in the Sensitivity Case. This is especially the case of Europe, with the UK, France, the Netherlands and Austria, among others, targeting 100% of new sales from EVs in various time horizons."
It is always interesting to compare with earlier WOO reports (They can be found in the archive here : OPEC : World Oil Outlook Archive )
I love how blind they are to how little infrastructure spending and government support there really is to driving EV replacement of the passenger car segment. Tesla hasn't spent more than a few billion and they've already covered almost 3 continents worth of infrastructure. I will be adding to my SCO position, if oil hits $80.