2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Krugerrand]

Folks please get in the habit of asking yourself: "Hmm, is TSLA doing something interesting today or is it the market?" Check QQQ, F and GM. All up sharply. This is not news based.

Edit: as @racer26 said.

Agreed. The entire market is up. But gosh a reckless growth comment would be awesome right now. Can we say catalyst?

 

[Bgarret]

I cringe at the possibility of Trump ever mentioning Tesla. It would either be to attack it (no reason of course), or to take credit for its success.

An American company building world's biggest battery factory in the US. This is how we beat China. Thanks Donald! #MAGA

Ugh!

While not thrilled with the date we picked up drunk, at the bar, at 2am and now must live with for the next 4 years, it would be naive to not use some of his jingoistic majesty to any advantage we can.

 

[Thumper]

If we were up on beta only, why the large volume?

 

[geneclean55]

If we were up on beta only, why the large volume?

Could be portfolio allocation by the big boys at the start of the year. If so, vote of confidence for TSLA.

 

[Buddyroe]

I cringe at the possibility of Trump ever mentioning Tesla. It would either be to attack it (no reason of course), or to take credit for its success.

An American company building world's biggest battery factory in the US. This is how we beat China. Thanks Donald! #MAGA

Ugh!

Actually, that would be REALLY good for Tesla since there's a group consisting of about 40% of the U.S. population that thinks Tesla is an "Obama Loser Car Company" because Romney said so in one of the 2012 POTUS debate. If Tesla was suddenly a Trump-loved company, a whole new market would open up.

Just for an example - my wife is in the medical field. Like me, she is very conservative/libertarian so we talk to a LOT of conservatives about Tesla. Last week, when she and some colleagues were discussing the wreck that Tesla AP predicted, an anesthesiologist spoke up and said that the problem with electric cars is that they catch on fire "all the time". My wife explained that Tesla cars had a much lower rate of fires than gas cars, and that Nissan nor Chevrolet had experienced any fires in their electric cars. He then said that if they were so great, the gov't wouldn't need to pay people to buy them. Again, my wife explained that actual facts show that GM and Ford receive FAR more subsidies than Tesla. His final comment got to the heart of the matter - "I will never buy an Obama car, so it's a moot point. Let's drop it."

We're talking about a guy that makes in excess of $250k a year - not some podunk trailer park trash.

 

[T3slaTulips]

Automotive is killing it this morning. VW is up almost 4%, and all the autos are well in the green today.

 

[uselesslogin]

So by the fact we don't have the numbers yet we can predict nothing. I see these three possible scenarios.
1) Elon says "take a break guys come back Tuesday and compile the numbers and get them out Tuesday night/Wednesday morning." In this case I would expect the numbers to be between 25 and 26k probably having little effect on stock price.
2) Tesla is waiting to release just before the investor event so they can make an announcement at the event of how many cars the delivered similar to the announcement at the Detroit Auto Show in 2014. In this case I would expect above 26k but probably 27k+.
3) The numbers are below guidance of 25,000 and they want to release after they reveal Gigafactory progress at tomorrow's event. If they have the event tomorrow with lots of great news about cell production and TE and don't give us numbers we can safely assume they will be a miss and released after market. Maybe some protective puts would be in order but the Gigafactory news might overshadow low deliveries - especially if they can say Q1 is basically sold out and that a Q4 miss was due to production with the new hardware and not demand issues.

Of course there are countless more possibilities and we'll never know what goes on behind the scenes.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

We're talking about a guy that makes in excess of $250k a year - not some podunk trailer park trash.

Not saying this person is, but it's possible to make $250k+ per year and still be trailer park trash. Just saying, money doesn't buy class or smarts...

 

[dirtyofries]

Actually, that would be REALLY good for Tesla since there's a group consisting of about 40% of the U.S. population that thinks Tesla is an "Obama Loser Car Company" because Romney said so in one of the 2012 POTUS debate. If Tesla was suddenly a Trump-loved company, a whole new market would open up.

Just for an example - my wife is in the medical field. Like me, she is very conservative/libertarian so we talk to a LOT of conservatives about Tesla. Last week, when she and some colleagues were discussing the wreck that Tesla AP predicted, an anesthesiologist spoke up and said that the problem with electric cars is that they catch on fire "all the time". My wife explained that Tesla cars had a much lower rate of fires than gas cars, and that Nissan nor Chevrolet had experienced any fires in their electric cars. He then said that if they were so great, the gov't wouldn't need to pay people to buy them. Again, my wife explained that actual facts show that GM and Ford receive FAR more subsidies than Tesla. His final comment got to the heart of the matter - "I will never buy an Obama car, so it's a moot point. Let's drop it."

We're talking about a guy that makes in excess of $250k a year - not some podunk trailer park trash.

To expound on this a bit - went to my wife's family's house this weekend for dinner. Inevitably, the topic of Tesla came up, and her parents (both of which are die-hard Fox News-watching Trump supporters) - who routinely give me a relatively hard time over Tesla (aren't they losing money? Didn't they take government funds? Isn't Elon running a pyramid scheme?) - they're suddenly convinced Tesla is the next coming because - to quote: "After that Musk guy met with Trump, he said he's going to be bringing more jobs to the US - the new President is getting Tesla to make more jobs here." They even heard about the Buffalo Solar city factory and thought that was completely a Trumpian result (I can only roll my eyes at this).

So, putting aside the fallacious notion - I'm letting them just have this because it at least shuts them up and takes the negative pressure off Tesla a bit.

 

[Svetlin]

Actually, that would be REALLY good for Tesla since there's a group consisting of about 40% of the U.S. population that thinks Tesla is an "Obama Loser Car Company" because Romney said so in one of the 2012 POTUS debate. If Tesla was suddenly a Trump-loved company, a whole new market would open up.

Just for an example - my wife is in the medical field. Like me, she is very conservative/libertarian so we talk to a LOT of conservatives about Tesla. Last week, when she and some colleagues were discussing the wreck that Tesla AP predicted, an anesthesiologist spoke up and said that the problem with electric cars is that they catch on fire "all the time". My wife explained that Tesla cars had a much lower rate of fires than gas cars, and that Nissan nor Chevrolet had experienced any fires in their electric cars. He then said that if they were so great, the gov't wouldn't need to pay people to buy them. Again, my wife explained that actual facts show that GM and Ford receive FAR more subsidies than Tesla. His final comment got to the heart of the matter - "I will never buy an Obama car, so it's a moot point. Let's drop it."

We're talking about a guy that makes in excess of $250k a year - not some podunk trailer park trash.

Fair point. We could use some promotion with this demographic. It just feels terrible to be getting help from the wrong person for the wrong reasons. I've already had a conversation with a friend claiming that Trump will now save Tesla. Musk is his advisor now, so they are buddies and Trump will give them all the money they need, otherwise they would have gone bankrupt.

Anyway, getting off topic. Waiting for the Q4 numbers.

 

[MitchJi]

This was posted by @Irishjugg after the the excellent Q3 results, decided it's worth repeating:

Does no one else get excited on days like these? I love irrational market discounts!

Let's see, 50% CAGR has continued, production run rate is at goals, model S and X are at steady state production, model 3 is temporarily on schedule, powerwall 2.0 is wildly better than any competitors offering, utilities are starting to get capex on battery storage, solarroofs look fantastic, full autonomy hardware already in production and will be standard onmodel 3, Tesla network is confirmed, model y, pickup, minibus, semi all confirmed, cashflow positive and profitable operation are all here and I get to buy at a significant discount to the normal trading range for when model S was at 800/month run rate and model Xwasn't released yet?

Today is a wonderful day if you like making money! The Tesla story has only grown in scope, execution, and value while the price has sunk due to solar industry struggles, macro interest rate of election risk, and your standard not very good analysts not understanding a merger. I love information arbitrage!

Not to mention, what fantastic swing trading! If only I was allowed to trade derivatives, I wonder what Nov 200 calls and currently going for.

Side note, also going long TAN and PBW, I think the time is finally right.

 

[larmor]

Automotive is killing it this morning. VW is up almost 4%, and all the autos are well in the green today.

While it is common for tsla to track the major indices and sector, it is not always the case as tsla has proven to be contrarian on many days to sector movement. For ex, VW is accused of outright fraud, auto sector is down but tsla remains steady. Tsla is yoy increasing in large luxury segment while competitors are stable to declining in growth, yet tsla gets down graded.

As for sectors- auto, tech, utility? Which is it for tsla or all?

 

[uselesslogin]

"I will never buy an Obama car, so it's a moot point. Let's drop it."

I always find this funny. Basically all of the federal incentives that benefit Tesla such as the EV tax credit and the interest free loan they were given were signed fall 2008 by George W. Bush, before Obama was even elected. Obama has nothing to do with it.

 

[Curt Renz]

Missouri dealership problem: Electek

Since a portion of Kansas City is in Kansas and St. Louis borders Illinois, if Missouri remains obstinate Tesla could move those stores just a few miles to the neighboring states.

 

[dirtyofries]

I always find this funny. Basically all of the federal incentives that benefit Tesla such as the EV tax credit and the interest free loan they were given were signed fall 2008 by George W. Bush, before Obama was even elected. Obama has nothing to do with it.

This would require a basic understanding and minimal level of attention to reality - a reality that doesn't fit a dissonant narrative.

 

[Buddyroe]

Not saying this person is, but it's possible to make $250k+ per year and still be trailer park trash. Just saying, money doesn't buy class or smarts...

Either way, the point is that we're talking about a person who can afford a Tesla. We need EVERYONE that can afford a Tesla to at least have an open mind to buying an electric car (and specifically, a Tesla after that). I only pointed this out because many left-wing, California liberals have the delusion that every Trump supported is an uneducated, broke, trailer-trash moron.

 

[vgrinshpun]

3Q16: Actual MS sales - 16,047; VIN tracking suggested 13-16k.
2Q16: Actual MS Sales - 9,764; VIN tracking suggests somewhere between 11-17k depending on how many outliers you throw out.
1Q16: Actual MS Sales - 12,851; VIN tracking suggested 11-13k

I have kept track of VIN assigned within a given quarter (as per the VIN assignment date) for Model S:

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Not saying this person is, but it's possible to make $250k+ per year and still be trailer park trash. Just saying, money doesn't buy class or smarts...

I think the problem is he is the typical victim of the media and big oil/energy spending against companies like Tesla. This has nothing to do with "xyz trash." Absolutely nothing.

 

[Buddyroe]

This would require a basic understanding and minimal level of attention to reality - a reality that doesn't fit a dissonant narrative.

Yea, I have educated people on this fact for several years now. My basic point to them is that republicans should be taking credit for Tesla - not bashing them.

I always find this funny. Basically all of the federal incentives that benefit Tesla such as the EV tax credit and the interest free loan they were given were signed fall 2008 by George W. Bush, before Obama was even elected. Obama has nothing to do with it.

Yea, I have educated people on this fact for several years now. My basic point to them is that republicans should be taking credit for Tesla - not bashing them.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Either way, the point is that we're talking about a person who can afford a Tesla. We need EVERYONE that can afford a Tesla to at least have an open mind to buying an electric car (and specifically, a Tesla after that). I only pointed this out because many left-wing, California liberals have the delusion that every Trump supported is an uneducated, broke, trailer-trash moron.

I (mostly) agree. When the people that have no more knowledge than the headlines and sound bites they get from the (biased) media are finally educated to the reality of EVs the demand will be off the charts.