2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[avoigt]

from CNN:
'Motor Trend writers were impressed with the Model 3's performance but some were dismayed at the test car's $60,000 price tag. The Model 3 is touted as an "accessible" car with a starting price of $35,000. Among other factors that kept it from winning were rather tight back seats and cheap-seeming interior materials.'

So it lost because only a $60k version was available.

That price tag means they did through in every possible option of the car but somehow they did not evaluate it. AP and FSD for instance are areas where other cars just can't compete so you can't compare or you give extra points.

I am struggling particularly with the price argument in that respect. Strange decision and very much against the sentiment of people who are driving the M3 today - all of them hyper excited about it.

 

[Reciprocity]

I know I should root for the giant ICE companies trying to go electric, but BWM et al don't make it easy.
Electrik reports BMW announced a 200 million euro investment in a new ‘BMW Group Battery Cell Competence Centre’ in order to develop their next generation electric vehicle powertrain [battery cells]. Here is one of the artist renderings of what the Centre is expected to look like when it opens in 2019.

View attachment 263207

Interesting to compare the scale of the rendering with pictures of the actual Tesla GigaFactory in Nevada. The usual saying won't suffice.
BMW is a decade late and a GigaBuck short.

That's not even their biggest issues. The shiny object at the end of the rainbow is negative margins for a decade or more that canabolizes their profitable models, which will compound their issues. Imagine the fud on Tesla if it's profitable ICE business was shrinking fast as BEV business was burning cash. Stockholders are going to love that.

 

[Reciprocity]

MT (and others) just refuse to see the future.

They have motor right in the name.. they need to change there name soon to electric motor tends.

 

[avoigt]

Tesla to open R&D company in China, in search for 100 people....

Interesting development. Well ahead of the China Factory but a surprise I believe. Would have thought they keep that core department in CA but given the future importance of that markets likely a smart step.

Tesla sets up new R&D company in China ahead of factory launch, according to official documents

"Companies seeking to manufacture electric vehicles in China must obtain a “new energy vehicle license” in order to produce and sell EVs locally.

The registration of ‘Tesla (Beijing) New Energy R&D Co. Ltd.’ could potentially be part of Tesla’s plan to obtain such a license."

 

[avoigt]

That's not even their biggest issues. The shiny object at the end of the rainbow is negative margins for a decade or more that canabolizes their profitable models, which will compound their issues. Imagine the fud on Tesla if it's profitable ICE business was shrinking fast as BEV business was burning cash. Stockholders are going to love that.

The BMW department is not for development of Batteries!

All what they try to accomplish is to understand the batterie business and technology. Its just 50 people who will work there. Given the results they will decide if they want to invest more. Right now they cannot even negotiate in a meaningful manner with Asian suppliers as they don't understand the business. That reason alone will justify the investment.

Listening and reading to their comments I believe they will keep the structure they have and supply everything they can around and for the vehicle. There is still the notion they do not need to invest in Batterie R&D which shows me how limited their understanding is today.

 

[Words of HABIT]

MT's COTY was clearly a vote to support old ICE and a vote against new EV.

Two reasons why MT did not place M3 at the top.

1) Range:
"Driving great distances because you can is a deep-rooted American tradition. It is the declaration of independence of the industrial revolution. It is our automotive destiny. We embrace the decreasing-radius corner, the back road’s unexpected undulation, the hairpin with a dusting of gravel at the apex."

2) It is not an ICE:
“This is a car that snorts and burps and gurgles,” Detroit editor Alisa Priddle says. “There is something visceral about hearing the car."

This reminds me of the classic 1979 movie "Breaking Away", when a small time cyclist has his spokes jabbed with a bicycle pump by the Italian Team to throw him into a ditch. We all know what happened next. The fact that main street media is still so clueless on Tesla only ensures the potential gain of holding TSLA is far greater than I can even image.

Best,
Daniel

 

[Yuri_G]

Did MT compile all the data to compare against the rest of the cars? I see the 330i comparison, but would like to see a comprehensive comparison.

 

[avoigt]

MT's COTY was clearly a vote to support old ICE and a vote against new EV.

Two reasons why MT did not place M3 at the top.

1) Range:
"Driving great distances because you can is a deep-rooted American tradition. It is the declaration of independence of the industrial revolution. It is our automotive destiny. We embrace the decreasing-radius corner, the back road’s unexpected undulation, the hairpin with a dusting of gravel at the apex."

2) It is not an ICE:
“This is a car that snorts and burps and gurgles,” Detroit editor Alisa Priddle says. “There is something visceral about hearing the car."

This reminds me of the classic 1979 movie "Breaking Away", when a small time cyclist has his spokes jabbed with a bicycle pump by the Italian Team to throw him into a ditch. We all know what happened next. The fact that main street media is still so clueless on Tesla only ensures the potential gain of holding TSLA is far greater than I can even image.

Best,
Daniel

Well, if you can go from Irland to West Africa without issues than I believe its fair to claim that distance is not an issue any more ....

https://i.redd.it/r53892uhdl001.png

 

[elasalle]

Tesla sets up new R&D company in China ahead of factory launch, according to official documents

..
Tesla is now establishing a new company in the country for research and development, according to a new government filing.

 

[Gerardf]

In other news :

SpaceX, the rocket maker founded by the technology entrepreneur and best known for wanting to colonize Mars, is now valued at an estimated $21.5 billion, according to Equidate, a website that provides post-money valuation data on privately held companies.

Seems based on :

A new filing shows the company has raised another $100 million in an extension to its latest funding round, bringing the total amount raised with the sale of shares this year to $449 million. SpaceX’s valuation jumped by about 50% in July after a $349-million dollar round.

Source: Latest Investment Gives SpaceX $21B Valuation | Investopedia Latest Investment Gives SpaceX $21B Valuation


IIRC correctly Elon Musk own about 27% of SpaceX.

IMHO the 'risk' of Elon using his SpaceX shares to borrow more money to add shares to his Tesla ownership percentage, is much bigger than Tesla running out of money before Model-3 makes Tesla cashflow positive.

 

[avoigt]

In other news :

SpaceX, the rocket maker founded by the technology entrepreneur and best known for wanting to colonize Mars, is now valued at an estimated $21.5 billion, according to Equidate, a website that provides post-money valuation data on privately held companies.

Seems based on :

A new filing shows the company has raised another $100 million in an extension to its latest funding round, bringing the total amount raised with the sale of shares this year to $449 million. SpaceX’s valuation jumped by about 50% in July after a $349-million dollar round.

Source: Latest Investment Gives SpaceX $21B Valuation | Investopedia Latest Investment Gives SpaceX $21B Valuation


IIRC correctly Elon Musk own about 27% of SpaceX.

IMHO the 'risk' of Elon using his SpaceX shares to borrow more money to add shares to his Tesla ownership percentage, is much bigger than Tesla running out of money before Model-3 makes Tesla cashflow positive.

IMHO that is legally not possible based on SEC rules but smarter people than me may know better. Anyhow EM has a vital interest to keep the SP above $300 given his commission plan. That may be one of many reasons while we have the resistance building and building.

Just one way from here and that is up even if it may take a while...

 

[elasalle]

Are we there yet Any VIN 1200's sighted?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Another great article by @Trent Eady, who I believe is one of the best authors on Seeking Alpha and a good one for TSLA longs to follow.

Tesla: Building A Dynamic Model Of Competitive Advantage - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - this morning: Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Nikkei Asian Review Reports 'Tesla to set up electric-car R&D hub in Beijing'

 

[hobbes]

Analysis by UBS - hope they´ll adjust there price target for TSLA accordingly

One in Six New Cars in the World Will Be Electric By 2025

 

[Mike Smith]

Germany requests that you kindly sell your Tesla shares.

Analyst jokes Musk will make it to Mars with SpaceX before Tesla is profitable

 

[neroden]

This is interesting, though already a week old: An employee who took delivery and says he is *not* under NDA:
This car is amazing. If you are on the fence about it, don't be.

Says he explicitely asked. Why have so many pictures and posts been disappearing? Or is this lack of NDA something new now that things are running a bit more smoothly?

I suspect this is a change: now that they're releasing orders to non-employees, they see no point in putting an NDA on employees any *more*.

 

[neroden]

This is why the gigafactory will always have value, because cells might change chemistry but won't change much from a production standpoint

Well, as long as we use electrochemical technology.

Sadly, the switch to much denser magnetic energy storage (which is currently at the theoretical stage, not even the lab stage) is likely to take far more than 20 years, and the Gigafactory will be fully depreciated by then.

 

[neroden]

My point is not that they aren't doing in it on a tiny scale. But that it would be rediculusly expensive to do it across a huge parking lot. Cost prohibitive.

Well, no. At least on a *flat* parking lot, it's just building a steel frame, really. Costs scale linearly, proportional to area. I don't know off the top of my head how much assembling such a steel skeleton and attaching it to the ground costs, but it must be a well-known number.

It's certainly cheaper to fold out frames which just sit on the ground (or on a flat roof), but building a canopy of this sort has to be quite cut-and-dried. Honestly the most expensive part would be digging the holes for the posts to go into. The rest of it is like assembling an Erector Set, if anyone remembers those, and should go very very fast.

(Or maybe they wouldn't even dig holes, and would just set large concrete blocks on the ground to support the poles. Might not be safe against strikes by cars and trucks, though.)

 

[Anstandswauwau]

Germany requests that you kindly sell your Tesla shares.

Analyst jokes Musk will make it to Mars with SpaceX before Tesla is profitable

Just looked up this dude's previous projections and statements: Long story short, he has a trackrecord of zero. It's beyond me why any balanced publication would even care about this guy's opinions and views.

Anyway, let's move on. Nothing to see here.