2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Reciprocity]

I thought so too but now I'm expecting less than 1400 M3s delivered Q4. As I reported in another thread, I was in the first group of non-employees to configure, 5 weeks ago. I've yet to receive a VIN nor any indication that delivery is imminent. Seems like bottlenecks are still being worked on.
I have twice contacted Tesla. Only once have they gotten back and politely stated that without a VIN they can't say anything about delivery. I know they want to get my car to me this quarter so I can only assume they're still trying to get the machine to run.

Interesting, what was your config and what is right delivery location? Could it be as mundane as a color and wheel combination. You where the one guy who chose white with silver wheels?

One issue with matching people to vins is that you don't know what people will want so you build a bunch of different cars and send them all over the state and your specific match didn't make it to your location in enough volume. It doesn't mean that only 1400 cars are delivered, you just got unlucky and a car just like you want is on a lot in a different part is the state and they don't want to move it, they will just invite 5000 more people and match it to one of them.

What's interesting to me is what one day, this once empty lot was full of model 3s and a few days later there where streams of car carries and a half full lot and full delivery centers. They can't store any cars in the factory, no room. So they have to go into the lots and deliver centers. The idea that Tesla stuffed lots with 2000 cars and they just sat there is silly. They showed up quickly, so that means they where produced fairly quickly. We know this because the lot is totally visible from the off ramp and the Fremont factory is not a TARDIS (bigger on the inside). Then there where tons of reports of deliveries. I have seen a hundred reports or more and vin bot has tracked 3x that many and vins in the 3xxx range. Every picture I see of a delivery center delivery, it's packed with model 3s in the background and people talk about all the activity.

I think you are just having bad luck. Did you check your my Tesla for the vin? I saw reports that people didn't get notification but the vin just showed up in the site.

 

[mongo]

They can't store any cars in the factory, no room.

I'm still holding on to the thought of the two automated storage towers buffering completed vehicles. (And the final episode of Half Life)

 

[Reciprocity]

I'm still holding on to the thought of the two automated storage towers buffering completed vehicles. (And the final episode of Half Life)

Haha, I doubt the racking in those towers are made for things as big as a car. I'm sure they can make an automated parts tower for parts as big as a car, but not this one. Its like car seats and body panels and motors and such.

My main point is that Tesla is not in the car storage business, they are in the car delivery business. It's silly to think they filled the lots and stopped making cars. Those lots got filled quickly because no one noticed until they where full. And there are clear signs the cars are moving out of those lots.

 

[Reciprocity]

I get the impression that delivery is the current bottleneck. It’s just surprising to still be seeing VINs in the 1000s get scheduled for delivery when we pretty much know they’ve built more than 3000 cars. If delivery were humming along they’d have those 1xxx VINs delivered by now.

It could make perfect sense if the 1xxx are Tesla/space X employees. Which I'm sure they are. Most non employees seem to be 2k+. I'm guessing 3k total delivered this year and 4k produced with an exit speed of 1k/w for 2017, though they will say that they manufactured 400 on the last day so they can claim 2k/w exit velocity..hah.

 

[Todd Burch]

It could make perfect sense if the 1xxx are Tesla/space X employees. Which I'm sure they are. Most non employees seem to be 2k+. I'm guessing 3k total delivered this year and 4k produced with an exit speed of 1k/w for 2017, though they will say that they manufactured 400 on the last day so they can claim 2k/w exit velocity..hah.

I expect 4-5k produced but 3k delivered seems on the optimistic side.

 

[mongo]

Haha, I doubt the racking in those towers are made for things as big as a car. I'm sure they can make an automated parts tower for parts as big as a car, but not this one. Its like car seats and body panels and motors and such.

My main point is that Tesla is not in the car storage business, they are in the car delivery business. It's silly to think they filled the lots and stopped making cars. Those lots got filled quickly because no one noticed until they where full. And there are clear signs the cars are moving out of those lots.

100% agreement.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

No - I am taking delivery of my model 3 at the Marina Del Rey delivery center tomorrow

surfside

Major thanks to all the Tesla employees working what is both Sunday and New Year's Eve to get vehicles to customers before the year is out.

I'm still holding on to the thought of the two automated storage towers buffering completed vehicles. (And the final episode of Half Life)

Ugh, it has been 10 freaking years since Half Life 2: Episode 2 ended on a cliffhanger. People complain about Tesla being late on everything, but Tesla has delivered the Roadster, Model S, Model X, Roadster upgrade package, and Model 3, since 2007, while Valve has said nothing for years about concluding the Half Life story line. This makes Elon look positively timely, which is saying a lot.

The least Valve could do is release whatever script they have and maybe contract someone to write a comic book to tell us what happened to Gordon, Alex, and everyone else, if they have no intention of finishing the story in FPS form. LOL.

 

[Ulmo]

Tesla needs to implement that "bulletproof" semi windshield in all their cars too.

Make it an option.

 

[mongo]

So off topic, but it is Saturday night on a 3 day weekend.

Ugh, it has been 10 freaking years since Half Life 2: Episode 2 ended on a cliffhanger. People complain about Tesla being late on everything, but Tesla has delivered the Roadster, Model S, Model X, Roadster upgrade package, and Model 3, since 2007, while Valve has said nothing for years about concluding the Half Life story line. This makes Elon look positively timely, which is saying a lot.

The least Valve could do is release whatever script they have and maybe contract someone to write a comic book to tell us what happened to Gordon, Alex, and everyone else, if they have no intention of finishing the story in FPS form. LOL.

Closest thing to closure

 

[defc0n]

So off topic, but it is Saturday night on a 3 day weekend.



Closest thing to closure

^ yep, half life is dead

 

[30seconds]

So, I’m pretty confident that the Model 3 ramp is really underway. Maybe even thinking 2k deliveries.

Anyways, now I’m 2018 my attention is moving on to the Y announcement. The question won’t be about price, it won’t be about demand, charging network, desirability, features, performance, interior space, storage, or Manufactability.

It will be a question of “where when can you build hundreds of thousands a year?”

This is a much less risky problem. And, I expect, something that fundamentally shifts the market valuation of Tesla.

 

[avoigt]

busy at the years end....

https://i.redd.it/tdjru50zk5701.jpg

The giant delivery space at the Marina Del Rey center. People everywhere picking up their S/X/3 today! (This photo only captures about half the space) • r/teslamotors

 

[Yoda101]

... snip

We are witnessing, in my opinion, the Model T of this generation.

.

Yes .. Yes ... Yes - this is the best quote!

 

[DragonWatch]

No - I am taking delivery of my model 3 at the Marina Del Rey delivery center tomorrow

surfside

This what I was hoping to hear ~ thanks! Oh, and congratulations too

 

[Sparky]

Interesting, what was your config and what is right delivery location? Could it be as mundane as a color and wheel combination. You where the one guy who chose white with silver wheels?
....
I think you are just having bad luck. Did you check your my Tesla for the vin? I saw reports that people didn't get notification but the vin just showed up in the site.

Nothing special about my config... red, 18", pup, EAP.
Yeah, I've checked MyTesla daily until recently. I'll try and contact the DS again next week. I don't know that my situation is all that unusual. Of course, with Tesla, there's no way of knowing. Just the standard cone of silence before they say, "come get your car" (and bring money!).
At this point, it looks like end of January.

 

[schonelucht]

I get the impression that delivery is the current bottleneck. It’s just surprising to still be seeing VINs in the 1000s get scheduled for delivery when we pretty much know they’ve built more than 3000 cars. If delivery were humming along they’d have those 1xxx VINs delivered by now.

Is Tesla offloading final quality control and touch up to the deliver centers once more like in early X ramp? Answer would be to start spreading deliveries across the states.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Wow looking at the picture from the delivery center I'm struck by how quickly they could spin up new centers. Just contact any company that does expos / conferences, and have them set you up in a warehouse with at least one vehicle sized at-grade door. The expo company can provide you with all that lighting and rigging, and even the floor carpets under the vehicles and partitioning to separate QA from delivery. Just add internet and a couple of office printers, tablets, and such for the staff.

They could do this temporarily very fast across many locations this way while simultaneously working on more permanent delivery centers that are more ideally placed and customized (allowing for the "polished" to eventually happen, without slowing down deliveries now). They could even simply have the expo companies set up the centers but rather than renting the equipment / flooring / etc, buy it outright for keeps - but it's the sort of thing you can easily outsource to local companies and not need an internal team dealing with it.

 

[SebastianR]

Wow looking at the picture from the delivery center I'm struck by how quickly they could spin up new centers. Just contact any company that does expos / conferences, and have them set you up in a warehouse with at least one vehicle sized at-grade door. The expo company can provide you with all that lighting and rigging, and even the floor carpets under the vehicles and partitioning to separate QA from delivery. Just add internet and a couple of office printers, tablets, and such for the staff.

They could do this temporarily very fast across many locations this way while simultaneously working on more permanent delivery centers that are more ideally placed and customized (allowing for the "polished" to eventually happen, without slowing down deliveries now). They could even simply have the expo companies set up the centers but rather than renting the equipment / flooring / etc, buy it outright for keeps - but it's the sort of thing you can easily outsource to local companies and not need an internal team dealing with it.

Yes. And one key ingredient in this is the electric drive train: as long as you have doors big enough, you can easily drive in / out of any building. No need to worry about ventilation, noise, health hazards etc.

Of course there are downsides, too: the facility looks awesome and nice but improvised: you can't let customers drive in there (ref. the truss that hasn't been bolted to the floor). But it scales better and quicker than a regular dealership for sure!

 

[Reciprocity]

busy at the years end....

https://i.redd.it/tdjru50zk5701.jpg

The giant delivery space at the Marina Del Rey center. People everywhere picking up their S/X/3 today! (This photo only captures about half the space) • r/teslamotors

That one location can do something like 100 delivers per hour for 12+ hours per day. So if the cars are built, they can get them to customers pretty quickly.

 

[Reciprocity]

Wow looking at the picture from the delivery center I'm struck by how quickly they could spin up new centers. Just contact any company that does expos / conferences, and have them set you up in a warehouse with at least one vehicle sized at-grade door. The expo company can provide you with all that lighting and rigging, and even the floor carpets under the vehicles and partitioning to separate QA from delivery. Just add internet and a couple of office printers, tablets, and such for the staff.

They could do this temporarily very fast across many locations this way while simultaneously working on more permanent delivery centers that are more ideally placed and customized (allowing for the "polished" to eventually happen, without slowing down deliveries now). They could even simply have the expo companies set up the centers but rather than renting the equipment / flooring / etc, buy it outright for keeps - but it's the sort of thing you can easily outsource to local companies and not need an internal team dealing with it.

I don't think they need to do anything special for deliveries. California and model 3 is a special case because so many Tesla owners and employees. There are roughly 200 stores in the US and 300 world wide. if each location can average 10 per day (10 x 200 x 5 = 10k/w US and 15k WW) that would be more then Tesla can produce over the next couple of years. My local service center is fairly small and they could deliver 30 cars a day pretty easily. I'm sure they will need this type of delivery center again in LA for the model Y, but don't the rest of the country needs them.