Its still early in the quarter yet, we don't have much data, and its misleading to assume that those few 2Q deliveries scheduled in the 185xxx - 186xxxs are representative of the anticipated end of 1Q VINs. There are some 170xxx cars delivered in 1Q, even though most of 176xxx were delivered in 4Q. It looks like the last week of December was when most of the 177xxxs were built.
It appears that the factory is currently producing cars in the 185xxx to 186xxx range based on a few vehicles scheduled for late 1Q deliveries reaching production start this week. They're obviously not going to stop producing cars for the next 8 weeks.
With 7,000 vehicles overhang from 4Q, plus ~7,000 VINs already produced this quarter (consistent with about a 2900/wk run rate if Model S/X split is 60/40 as it was in December), you're definitely wrong on 10,000. You've also forgotten about Model X not being in that tracker.
I would say that we are likely to see somewhere in the neighborhood of 30k deliveries in 1Q17.
I base that on a 2,400/wk run rate (which was suggested as what the 4Q exit rate was to be) with 12 successful weeks of 13 actual weeks in the quarter, plus a 1200 car drawdown on the overhang. I consider this a conservative estimate based on knowledge we have.
An optimistic estimate based on the data we have would be 2,900/wk apparent rate from the tracker, 13 weeks of production, plus a 4k drawdown on the overhang gets to over 40k cars.
Thus, my range is 30-40k.
