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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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I was surprised to see this on my Amazon.com home page:
upload_2017-2-2_8-59-32.png


For those unfamiliar with amazonvehicles you can leave reviews for your cars there!
 
Caveat: I'd wait to hear from more than one source before trusting this story. Poster created their account Feb 1. Story said they got an incorrectly made 70D in December (but they didn't create their forum account then). I'm not saying it's not true, just saying I'd get a second/third source (which should be available for a 10 day shutdown) before I'd trust it.
10 day shutdown for factory retooling? If true, only 2 things I can think of that would cause that.

1) A relatively major change to S/X such as installing HUDs (though I would've thought they could do that faster than 10 days)
2) Installing Model 3 production equipment in a location that necessitates temporarily stopping the S/X line (but I thought that wasn't to be the case either.

Interesting.
 
As a long term investor coupled with being a retired senior army officer having worked for a living; worked my way up from private ~ I say if you want to argue facts then go off on VW for lying. Every year I kept my job or got promoted an academy elitist lost out and talk about dealing with hate and falsehoods OMG what a bunch of yellow rain ants.

I have driven the MX and have a reservation for a M3. While I was unnerved during my test drive of the MX on the first Auto Assist parking job I got over it the second time. According to TV commercials from ICE auto manufacturers they have had that feature for years. Is that true or false that those ICE cars can in fact park themselves? Additionally Fareday recently unveiled their version of a fully autonomous EV and it parked after driving through a parking lot in the dark, found a spot and parked. We're they lying? I did notice that it passed a empty spot on the end of the row, why? Was it because the sensors must detect another car present; thus two cars to perform the parking feature in between them. Are the sensors limited and cannot use only lines? Hell I do not know ~ without driving it myself I will never know the truth beyond what I have seen with my eyes and read. I do know from first hand experience that remote control (RC) works in reality. Was the ICE cars parking in commercials really a RC job. I do not know and neither do you.

I do know the AI driving capability is an extremely competitive field right now and those manufacturers that get there ahead of the pack will smack down the rest of the field, bar none EV or ICE cars. Tesla has been fighting WW III against the ICE manufacturers and the Fossil Fuel Industry (FFI), and is winning. How do I know they are winning. Look at the push back from not only ICE and FFI, but currpt politions around the country. Are we really going to do away with the EPA? Are politions really wanting to make it legal to run over protesters if the get in your way? Really.

Supposedly Russia's first nuc warheads were full of dirty nuclear dust and not fully nuclear capable. That was done to scar the world while they kept working on the real thing. Did that really happen?

Since Tesla came on the scene I have followed its progress. The media, based on writers of both real facts and bogus facts have tried to discredit Tesla. Yes, in the beginning most were slap happy, but as Tesla became more and more of a threat it became evident that ICE & FFI wanted to cut Tesla off at the wheel caps (knee caps ~ get it?). Every time Tesla emerged from the fires like a bird from the ashes ~ heard of that before? You pick the topic and research the real facts and you will see positive results.

None of us on this site know for a fact that Tesla in the video is fully autonomous or not ~ none of us. What does Tesla have to gain with falsehoods? A little bit of glory or casting fear in its opponents? If they put a bogus product in the hands of movie drivers and the system does not function Tesla will end up like VW. Tesla is far and above that in case you are slow.

So, is your attempt to discredit Tesla AI system funded by the ICE manufacturers, FFI, the Russian's or corrupt politions? At this point who gives a damn if a video is doctored? The proof will be in the pudding. Does it work as advertised when Joe Jeep drives it.

I'll know after saving all those aluminum cans, collecting old news papers and helping village idiots across the street and buy my MX this year.
 
Caveat: I'd wait to hear from more than one source before trusting this story. Poster created their account Feb 1. Story said they got an incorrectly made 70D in December (but they didn't create their forum account then). I'm not saying it's not true, just saying I'd get a second/third source (which should be available for a 10 day shutdown) before I'd trust it.

Tesla shutting down production for a week or so per quarter seems to be the norm lately, so it wouldn't surprise me.

Having said that, +1 on @T3slaTulips post above for this particular report for multiple reasons.
 
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Tesla is getting product out into the hands of people to break, then designing, fixing, breaking, re-designing - A good example of their methodology is the recent crash test information. Before results are even announced, Tesla has a re-designed seatbelt in testing and is working on the headlights. Meanwhile Tesla is accumulating BILLIONS of miles of data....data needed for proof of concept to regulators and to train AI. The race for autonomy was not decided over 535 miles driven in 2016 - it will be decided over the Billions of miles driven in the next 2-5 years. Place your bets on the winner accordingly.

There's the nutshell. The concept that so many customers, analysts, bears, ear wax makers and orange peel collectors simply can not wrap their brains around or accept.

Constricted thinking is so limiting that you don't know it's limiting because you're being suffocated by it.
 
There's the nutshell. The concept that so many customers, analysts, bears, ear wax makers and orange peel collectors simply can not wrap their brains around or accept.

Constricted thinking is so limiting that you don't know it's limiting because you're being suffocated by it.
Yep.

My product doesn't have to be perfect before it goes to market if I can rapidly repair it in the field as problems arise. It means I can spend less time trying to meticulously test every possible scenario before shipping product and getting it in customers hands where it can be useful even before it is perfect. Customers will find all the little edge case bugs much much faster than Tesla could ever hope to in testing behind the scenes.

Historically, that wasn't an option for cars. Tesla has changed that. Now its a tradeoff between customer annoyance at a feature performing suboptimally until they can fix it, but finding and fixing those problems much more quickly than would be possible with in-house testing. Its a delicate balance to strike, and I think Tesla does a fairly respectable job of it.
 
10 day shutdown for factory retooling? If true, only 2 things I can think of that would cause that.

1) A relatively major change to S/X such as installing HUDs (though I would've thought they could do that faster than 10 days)
2) Installing Model 3 production equipment in a location that necessitates temporarily stopping the S/X line (but I thought that wasn't to be the case either.

Interesting.
Or just adjusting for the safety issue raised by IIHS, as Tesla themselves said.
 
But 20 miles was not an uniterrupted run as you claimed. Report must have mentioned this in different context. Link?

Tesla had 4 self-driving Model X prototypes last year and drove over 500 autonomous miles on public roads

Well, not to bicker about who said what, but you did say "doctored demo"...

Which is clearly not the same as doctored video.

I do not see your claim as plausible. If video would be a result of programming constraints by hand, rather than demonstrating what neural net software can do, namely learn, there would not be so many bugs/errors in it, as I outlined in this post.

Why would one exclude the other?

I do not believe calling "their current solution" "bad" is justified. We see exactly the same pattern that was observed with AP1 - it is progressively getting better, even without OTAs, which is again very reassuring, as it confirms what company is telling the world - they have narrow AI at work, in every car and at the mother ship. As investors, we should be all very encouraged by this, as this is huge differentiator with the competition.

Their current solution is objectively worse than the initial release of AP1.

My point in noting this again is that the fact that all of the people trashing the demo are so off about details of it, underlines, IMO, the main problem with their strange claims: they seem to have formulated their opinion independently from the actual information available to an impartial observer.

That is quite rich if you have to ask me where the official report on the issue is. Having to pick between second hand information versus an offical company report to the DMV in compliance with Californian regulations, I take the latter. So I maintain they ran 20 autonomous miles without any disengagements with car SYJXCCE43GF01789 when they filmed that video. Anyway, not even sure why the exact mileage is relevant.
 
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If your TSLA trading correlates EPA rulings:
EPA Administrator moves forward from committee

Dems boycott committee vote, but Republicans unanimously approve Trump's EPA pick - CNNPolitics.com

"Scott Pruitt, President Donald Trump's nominee to serve as administrator for the Environmental Protection Agency, has advanced to the Senate floor.
Republicans on the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee suspended committee rules following the Democrats' boycott of Pruitt's nomination, which began Wednesday.
Pruitt was approved 11-0.
Committee Chairman John Barrasso told CNN's Manu Raju Thursday ahead of the panel's vote that the panel would do what was necessary to move Pruitt's nomination along.
"Scott Pruitt will be voted out of committee today. He will get to the floor of the United States Senate and he will be confirmed as the next administrator of the EPA," Barrasso said."
 
Yay for Tesla, but Yuck in every other way.

Dealerships really have one role - keep the service bays full. Otherwise, their larger, prettier and wonderful showrooms are places we may visit only once every <n> years. I wouldn't mind seeing automakers go direct sales routes and then the service departments stay within the "dealership" model. GM wanted an even-playing field and if there is one company offering direct sales, they wouldn't mind doing the same nationally. Dealers do not want to lose some of the "control" they have for customers and their F&I offices offering profit-making special services and insuraces on the up-sell. I don't want to go to a "dealer of any kind" and deal. I don't mind putting in an order for something and going and picking it up. Let bartering and bantering die away or stay alive at auctions, flea markets and Marrakkesh Bazars.
 
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