2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[tinm]

Somewhat off-topic but a little data point for investors imho:

Yesterday I stopped by the local Chevrolet dealer. (I know, what was I thinking.) Sales people inside astir at the sight of a Tesla pulling up to the front door. I walk in, all excited, asking to see the brand-new Chevy Bolt electric vehicle and test drive it!

Sales guy #1 says, oh, we don't have any. It'll be a few months still, sometime in the spring. I express disappointment.

Sales guy #2 comes out, just lingers around like a cop wondering if this is going to be a situation or not.

Sales guy #1 then tells me it's too bad about "the 3" and I say huh? and he says "the 3 failed its crash tests," and I'm like what, and he says yeah it just happened didn't you hear that, yeah, like last day or two, failed the Model 3 crash tests so I guess Tesla has to go back to the drawing board. I say, um, it's not even in production yet, no way NHSTA has done crash tests on a 3 yet no way. He mumbles.

Sales guy #3 comes out, seems to be the boss, says no, we won't have them until "end of Q3." (He should have a talk with sales guy #1, they need to get their stories straight.)

Sales guy #3 then begins talking crap in a mournful tone about "those Consumer Reports articles," you know, it's too bad, it's up and down with Tesla, we just don't know, you know. Then he says, too bad the company won't be around in a few years, hope it will be, but, you know, I hear they're going to sell to [some company I forget who... an absurd car company like Fiat or something].

On it went for about 30 minutes. The level of FUD was right out of Trump University, I mean these guys were clearly summa cum laude from T.U., bigly FUDsters, the best, terrific. Hyuuge, blatant lies, ignorance, and clearly had no interest in the Bolt. Sales guy #3 says at one point, well we have some Volts, want to see them? I smiled and said "still has a tailpipe and a gas tank, doesn't it." He was not amused.

I can't recommend highly enough stopping by your local Chevy dealer and talking to them. Be friendly, no antagonism or Tesla fanboy stuff, go if you're curious about the Bolt like I have honestly always been -- I told them flat out, I'm excited to see an affordable EV coming out to the market, it's great, the more competition the better -- just inquire about the Bolt, and I betcha you're going to get some interesting responses.

 

[-=buzz=-]

BMW i8 is NOT an EV. it goes 14 miles (max) on electricity an then switches to gas and $140,700 (14+gas)

Neither is the Acura NSX, which is the Car he was refering to.

 

[dirtyofries]

Somewhat off-topic but a little data point for investors imho:

Yesterday I stopped by the local Chevrolet dealer. (I know, what was I thinking.) Sales people inside astir at the sight of a Tesla pulling up to the front door. I walk in, all excited, asking to see the brand-new Chevy Bolt electric vehicle and test drive it!

Sales guy #1 says, oh, we don't have any. It'll be a few months still, sometime in the spring. I express disappointment.

Sales guy #2 comes out, just lingers around like a cop wondering if this is going to be a situation or not.

Sales guy #1 then tells me it's too bad about "the 3" and I say huh? and he says "the 3 failed its crash tests," and I'm like what, and he says yeah it just happened didn't you hear that, yeah, like last day or two, failed the Model 3 crash tests so I guess Tesla has to go back to the drawing board. I say, um, it's not even in production yet, no way NHSTA has done crash tests on a 3 yet no way. He mumbles.

Sales guy #3 comes out, seems to be the boss, says no, we won't have them until "end of Q3." (He should have a talk with sales guy #1, they need to get their stories straight.)

Sales guy #3 then begins talking crap in a mournful tone about "those Consumer Reports articles," you know, it's too bad, it's up and down with Tesla, we just don't know, you know. Then he says, too bad the company won't be around in a few years, hope it will be, but, you know, I hear they're going to sell to [some company I forget who... an absurd car company like Fiat or something].

On it went for about 30 minutes. The level of FUD was right out of Trump University, I mean these guys were clearly summa cum laude from T.U., bigly FUDsters, the best, terrific. Hyuuge, blatant lies, ignorance, and clearly had no interest in the Bolt. Sales guy #3 says at one point, well we have some Volts, want to see them? I smiled and said "still has a tailpipe and a gas tank, doesn't it." He was not amused.

I can't recommend highly enough stopping by your local Chevy dealer and talking to them. Be friendly, no antagonism or Tesla fanboy stuff, go if you're curious about the Bolt like I have honestly always been -- I told them flat out, I'm excited to see an affordable EV coming out to the market, it's great, the more competition the better -- just inquire about the Bolt, and I betcha you're going to get some interesting responses.

#alternativechevyfacts

 

[racer26]

Somewhat off-topic but a little data point for investors imho:

Yesterday I stopped by the local Chevrolet dealer. (I know, what was I thinking.) Sales people inside astir at the sight of a Tesla pulling up to the front door. I walk in, all excited, asking to see the brand-new Chevy Bolt electric vehicle and test drive it!

Sales guy #1 says, oh, we don't have any. It'll be a few months still, sometime in the spring. I express disappointment.

Sales guy #2 comes out, just lingers around like a cop wondering if this is going to be a situation or not.

Sales guy #1 then tells me it's too bad about "the 3" and I say huh? and he says "the 3 failed its crash tests," and I'm like what, and he says yeah it just happened didn't you hear that, yeah, like last day or two, failed the Model 3 crash tests so I guess Tesla has to go back to the drawing board. I say, um, it's not even in production yet, no way NHSTA has done crash tests on a 3 yet no way. He mumbles.

Sales guy #3 comes out, seems to be the boss, says no, we won't have them until "end of Q3." (He should have a talk with sales guy #1, they need to get their stories straight.)

Sales guy #3 then begins talking crap in a mournful tone about "those Consumer Reports articles," you know, it's too bad, it's up and down with Tesla, we just don't know, you know. Then he says, too bad the company won't be around in a few years, hope it will be, but, you know, I hear they're going to sell to [some company I forget who... an absurd car company like Fiat or something].

On it went for about 30 minutes. The level of FUD was right out of Trump University, I mean these guys were clearly summa cum laude from T.U., bigly FUDsters, the best, terrific. Hyuuge, blatant lies, ignorance, and clearly had no interest in the Bolt. Sales guy #3 says at one point, well we have some Volts, want to see them? I smiled and said "still has a tailpipe and a gas tank, doesn't it." He was not amused.

I can't recommend highly enough stopping by your local Chevy dealer and talking to them. Be friendly, no antagonism or Tesla fanboy stuff, go if you're curious about the Bolt like I have honestly always been -- I told them flat out, I'm excited to see an affordable EV coming out to the market, it's great, the more competition the better -- just inquire about the Bolt, and I betcha you're going to get some interesting responses.

When they can't fight with facts, and resort to outright lies to sell their cars, particularly in trying to sell to a Tesla owner, you know we're winning.

 

[jhm]

Even auto execs say electric cars will dominate by 2025

I'm not sure if this has been posted here before, but KPMG surveyed auto executives and found that 90% believe that BEVs will dominate the auto market by 2025. This implies about a 57% annual growth rate for plug-in vehicles, probably more for BEVs.

Meanwhile, BP analysts think that EVs will grow less than 26% annually for the next twenty years. Good luck with that!

I wrote up a more detailed analysis in Shorting Oil thread.

 

[MitchJi]

Always fun to see Vgrin, SBenson and Shonelucht mix it up, but let's move on...

Shonelucht and SBenson equate jars half full with unicorns.

 

[jhm]

Somewhat off-topic but a little data point for investors imho:

Yesterday I stopped by the local Chevrolet dealer. (I know, what was I thinking.) Sales people inside astir at the sight of a Tesla pulling up to the front door. I walk in, all excited, asking to see the brand-new Chevy Bolt electric vehicle and test drive it!

Sales guy #1 says, oh, we don't have any. It'll be a few months still, sometime in the spring. I express disappointment.

Sales guy #2 comes out, just lingers around like a cop wondering if this is going to be a situation or not.

Sales guy #1 then tells me it's too bad about "the 3" and I say huh? and he says "the 3 failed its crash tests," and I'm like what, and he says yeah it just happened didn't you hear that, yeah, like last day or two, failed the Model 3 crash tests so I guess Tesla has to go back to the drawing board. I say, um, it's not even in production yet, no way NHSTA has done crash tests on a 3 yet no way. He mumbles.

Sales guy #3 comes out, seems to be the boss, says no, we won't have them until "end of Q3." (He should have a talk with sales guy #1, they need to get their stories straight.)

Sales guy #3 then begins talking crap in a mournful tone about "those Consumer Reports articles," you know, it's too bad, it's up and down with Tesla, we just don't know, you know. Then he says, too bad the company won't be around in a few years, hope it will be, but, you know, I hear they're going to sell to [some company I forget who... an absurd car company like Fiat or something].

On it went for about 30 minutes. The level of FUD was right out of Trump University, I mean these guys were clearly summa cum laude from T.U., bigly FUDsters, the best, terrific. Hyuuge, blatant lies, ignorance, and clearly had no interest in the Bolt. Sales guy #3 says at one point, well we have some Volts, want to see them? I smiled and said "still has a tailpipe and a gas tank, doesn't it." He was not amused.

I can't recommend highly enough stopping by your local Chevy dealer and talking to them. Be friendly, no antagonism or Tesla fanboy stuff, go if you're curious about the Bolt like I have honestly always been -- I told them flat out, I'm excited to see an affordable EV coming out to the market, it's great, the more competition the better -- just inquire about the Bolt, and I betcha you're going to get some interesting responses.

Tinm, you should submit this to Jalopnik. Very funny!

 

[AlMc]

CNBC reports EM back st the WH tomorrow for more meetings

 

[bonaire]

Somewhat off-topic but a little data point for investors imho:

Yesterday I stopped by the local Chevrolet dealer. (I know, what was I thinking.) Sales people inside astir at the sight of a Tesla pulling up to the front door. I walk in, all excited, asking to see the brand-new Chevy Bolt electric vehicle and test drive it!

Sales guy #1 says, oh, we don't have any. It'll be a few months still, sometime in the spring. I express disappointment.

Sales guy #2 comes out, just lingers around like a cop wondering if this is going to be a situation or not.

Sales guy #1 then tells me it's too bad about "the 3" and I say huh? and he says "the 3 failed its crash tests," and I'm like what, and he says yeah it just happened didn't you hear that, yeah, like last day or two, failed the Model 3 crash tests so I guess Tesla has to go back to the drawing board. I say, um, it's not even in production yet, no way NHSTA has done crash tests on a 3 yet no way. He mumbles.

Sales guy #3 comes out, seems to be the boss, says no, we won't have them until "end of Q3." (He should have a talk with sales guy #1, they need to get their stories straight.)

Sales guy #3 then begins talking crap in a mournful tone about "those Consumer Reports articles," you know, it's too bad, it's up and down with Tesla, we just don't know, you know. Then he says, too bad the company won't be around in a few years, hope it will be, but, you know, I hear they're going to sell to [some company I forget who... an absurd car company like Fiat or something].

On it went for about 30 minutes. The level of FUD was right out of Trump University, I mean these guys were clearly summa cum laude from T.U., bigly FUDsters, the best, terrific. Hyuuge, blatant lies, ignorance, and clearly had no interest in the Bolt. Sales guy #3 says at one point, well we have some Volts, want to see them? I smiled and said "still has a tailpipe and a gas tank, doesn't it." He was not amused.

I can't recommend highly enough stopping by your local Chevy dealer and talking to them. Be friendly, no antagonism or Tesla fanboy stuff, go if you're curious about the Bolt like I have honestly always been -- I told them flat out, I'm excited to see an affordable EV coming out to the market, it's great, the more competition the better -- just inquire about the Bolt, and I betcha you're going to get some interesting responses.

The service writer guy at a Chevy shop I was at two years ago said that the electrics were "just a stop-gap until Hydrogen gets going." As with any industry, it's always full of all sorts of attitudes, truths and stories. It's up to the individual to filter and live a life of truth.

 

[bonaire]

Even auto execs say electric cars will dominate by 2025

I'm not sure if this has been posted here before, but KPMG surveyed auto executives and found that 90% believe that BEVs will dominate the auto market by 2025. This implies about a 57% annual growth rate for plug-in vehicles, probably more for BEVs.

Meanwhile, BP analysts think that EVs will grow less than 26% annually for the next twenty years. Good luck with that!

I wrote up a more detailed analysis in Shorting Oil thread.

Not if "dealerships" have anything to say about it. It seems that only a few brands even consider EVs as viable. Chevy and Ford shops have a hard time even buying into support programs and getting on board with the training and tools.

VW and Audi, with items like this below, may be the primary "pushers" of the EV technology among the big players. I doubt the blue-collar vendors (Big 3) will come on as strong as the Germans. Big 3's primary problem is their dealerships themselves. It's like I posted in another thread - it's kind of like a vegan getting hired to manage the menu at a top BBQ restaurant.

Audi tells its dealers to get with the (electric-car) program

 

[AudubonB]

Again, a thing I would've thought they could do in a lot less than 10 days.

The safety issue raised by IIHS was claimed to have already been fixed on new vehicles in production at the time of the IIHS report.

My own belief, which is bolstered by Musk & Straubel remarks at last month's Gigafactory meeting AND by a remark by a mid-level employee last week, is that such a shutdown is necessitated by the installation of Schuler's gigantic stamping press.

To perform that MotherOfAllShoehornings in just ten days is a task indeed. And whether it is in fact the cause of this shutdown, or whether it occurs at some other date, I fervently wish Tesla releases a time-lapse video of the procedure.

 

[esk8mw]

Somewhat off-topic but a little data point for investors imho:

Yesterday I stopped by the local Chevrolet dealer. (I know, what was I thinking.) Sales people inside astir at the sight of a Tesla pulling up to the front door. I walk in, all excited, asking to see the brand-new Chevy Bolt electric vehicle and test drive it!

Sales guy #1 says, oh, we don't have any. It'll be a few months still, sometime in the spring. I express disappointment.

Sales guy #2 comes out, just lingers around like a cop wondering if this is going to be a situation or not.

Sales guy #1 then tells me it's too bad about "the 3" and I say huh? and he says "the 3 failed its crash tests," and I'm like what, and he says yeah it just happened didn't you hear that, yeah, like last day or two, failed the Model 3 crash tests so I guess Tesla has to go back to the drawing board. I say, um, it's not even in production yet, no way NHSTA has done crash tests on a 3 yet no way. He mumbles.

Sales guy #3 comes out, seems to be the boss, says no, we won't have them until "end of Q3." (He should have a talk with sales guy #1, they need to get their stories straight.)

Sales guy #3 then begins talking crap in a mournful tone about "those Consumer Reports articles," you know, it's too bad, it's up and down with Tesla, we just don't know, you know. Then he says, too bad the company won't be around in a few years, hope it will be, but, you know, I hear they're going to sell to [some company I forget who... an absurd car company like Fiat or something].

On it went for about 30 minutes. The level of FUD was right out of Trump University, I mean these guys were clearly summa cum laude from T.U., bigly FUDsters, the best, terrific. Hyuuge, blatant lies, ignorance, and clearly had no interest in the Bolt. Sales guy #3 says at one point, well we have some Volts, want to see them? I smiled and said "still has a tailpipe and a gas tank, doesn't it." He was not amused.

I can't recommend highly enough stopping by your local Chevy dealer and talking to them. Be friendly, no antagonism or Tesla fanboy stuff, go if you're curious about the Bolt like I have honestly always been -- I told them flat out, I'm excited to see an affordable EV coming out to the market, it's great, the more competition the better -- just inquire about the Bolt, and I betcha you're going to get some interesting responses.

Highly amusing and you are a better man than I. I would have been able to restrain myself for about 2 minutes before unleashing facts on him. Nothing makes me more angry than people who speak authoritatively on subjects they know nothing about, particularly when they are in a position of "power" (uninformed public comes in there and unwittingly looks to the car salesman for the "inside scoop" on those fancy electric cars s/he's been seeing everywhere and gets...this) and even moreso when the person stands to receive a personal benefit (sales commissions) from the disinformation. Makes my blood boil to read this stuff!

 

[racer26]

My own belief, which is bolstered by Musk & Straubel remarks at last month's Gigafactory meeting AND by a remark by a mid-level employee last week, is that such a shutdown is necessitated by the installation of Schuler's gigantic stamping press.

To perform that MotherOfAllShoehornings in just ten days is a task indeed. And whether it is indeed the cause of this shutdown, or whether it occurs at some other date, I fervently wish Tesla releases a time-lapse video of the procedure.

Having not seen the inside of Fremont any more than what is published in the media, I don't know.

I was under the impression that the Model 3 line was being installed in unused floor space adjacent to where S/X production happens now (long ago earmarked for the Model 3 purpose). I would've thought that they could install Model 3 equipment there without disrupting the adjacent line. Do you have any insight to why installing a large stamping press (or any other Model 3 related equipment for that matter) might necessitate temporarily halting production on the S/X line?

See my response below.

 

[larmor]

Having not seen the inside of Fremont any more than what is published in the media, I don't know.

I was under the impression that the Model 3 line was being installed in unused floor space adjacent to where S/X production happens now (long ago earmarked for the Model 3 purpose). I would've thought that they could install Model 3 equipment there without disrupting the adjacent line. Do you have any insight to why installing a large stamping press (or any other Model 3 related equipment for that matter) might necessitate temporarily halting production on the S/X line?

Have to turn off electricity before plugging it in??

 

[kenliles]

Introduction | Tesla Motors

22Feb. ER

 

[austinEV]

CNBC reports EM back st the WH tomorrow for more meetings

This is all EM is doing these days....

 

[T3slaTulips]

Introduction | Tesla Motors

22Feb. ER

Even their Annual reports are accelerating! Previously the earliest filing was Feb 24.
Edit: This may be an error. It looks like I was seeing dates for 10-K filings.

 

[RobStark]

BMW i8 is NOT an EV. it goes 14 miles (max) on electricity an then switches to gas and $140,700 (14+gas)

Neither is the NSX. That is why they are direct competitors.

 

[jhm]

Not if "dealerships" have anything to say about it. It seems that only a few brands even consider EVs as viable. Chevy and Ford shops have a hard time even buying into support programs and getting on board with the training and tools.

VW and Audi, with items like this below, may be the primary "pushers" of the EV technology among the big players. I doubt the blue-collar vendors (Big 3) will come on as strong as the Germans. Big 3's primary problem is their dealerships themselves. It's like I posted in another thread - it's kind of like a vegan getting hired to manage the menu at a top BBQ restaurant.

Audi tells its dealers to get with the (electric-car) program

An auto executive needs to be thinking 6 to 12 years in advance.

An auto dealership may be thinking out 6 to 12 months.

An auto salesman is thinking ahead about 6 to 12 cigarettes.

 

[RobStark]

The service writer guy at a Chevy shop I was at two years ago said that the electrics were "just a stop-gap until Hydrogen gets going."