2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[racer26]

Perhaps this is the rationale behind the switch to a numeric 3:

Adidas Says Tesla Logo Is Too Similar To 3-Stripe TM - Law360
Court documents show Tesla tweaked its Model 3 logo amid a trademark fight with adidas

Seems Adidas thinks the Tesla E is too similar to their 3 stripes at roughly a 60 degree angle to the horizontal for Tesla to trademark.

These are the days when the American legal system astounds me. Those two logos are so clearly different and not intended to confuse the public its not funny. The case should be thrown out immediately, instead, it seems Tesla is acquiescing to Adidas' demands.

Regardless of whether or not Tesla decided that the Tesla E as the logomark for the Model 3 was potentially confusing and independently decided that simply a numeral was better for their customers, (and so decided not to wrestle with Adidas for it) Adidas shouldn't even be able to get such a case off the ground.

 

[AlMc]

I just hope M3 part 3 reveal, has some M3's driven on stage by a Tesla Semi, is that too much to ask??!! They could self drive themselves off the truck if you really want to impress.

That would be great and not that outlandish as there are *rumors* that Jerome's team has been driving an EV semi around.

 

[Curt Renz]

Pence and Musk to talk on phone Wednesday

Vice President Mike Pence and Tesla Inc.(TSLA) chief executive Elon Musk are scheduled to talk on the phone on Wednesday afternoon, the White House announced. The purpose of the call was not disclosed. Musk has tried to distance himself from President Donald Trump even though he is a member of the president's economic advisory council. Musk tweeted that being on the advisory council did not mean he agreed with the administration's actions.

I suspect that Pence will ask Musk to cool down on tweeting against administration policies, if he is to remain with the advisory group. Musk would likely agree, since he has already made his opinions known publicly yet wants to remain influential with Trump. If Trump had already decided to fire Musk, then that likely would have been the subject of the White House press release rather than notice of a phone call.

 

[gene]

Me, I prefer the numeric "3". At EV drive events I attend there is endless conversational confusions and wasted time differentiating between Bolt and Volt. Last thing we need is for people who see the Model 3 driving down there neighborhood streets to have any confusion at all whether it is a Model 3 or something else.

 

[esk8mw]

Perhaps this is the rationale behind the switch to a numeric 3:

Adidas Says Tesla Logo Is Too Similar To 3-Stripe TM - Law360
Court documents show Tesla tweaked its Model 3 logo amid a trademark fight with adidas

Seems Adidas thinks the Tesla E is too similar to their 3 stripes at roughly a 60 degree angle to the horizontal for Tesla to trademark.

These are the days when the American legal system astounds me. Those two logos are so clearly different and not intended to confuse the public its not funny. The case should be thrown out immediately, instead, it seems Tesla is acquiescing to Adidas' demands.

Regardless of whether or not Tesla decided that the Tesla E as the logomark for the Model 3 was potentially confusing and independently decided that simply a numeral was better for their customers, (and so decided not to wrestle with Adidas for it) Adidas shouldn't even be able to get such a case off the ground.

I can see the confusion. Just the other day I tried to hop in my Allen Edmonds and drive to work but the things wouldn't budge.

 

[Drax7]

there is a patent on the number three.
the chinese are ignoring it.

 

[EinSV]

@jhm, I agree with the need to rapidly build out Gigafactories, but I do think China is a special case.

I believe Elon recently said that Tesla's manufacturing capabilities will give it a competitive advantage over the next 10 years. In that context, China's lax protection of IP -- in this case trade secrets and know-how around manufacturing -- is a huge risk. On the flip side, China has the potential to be the biggest single market in the world for Tesla, at least on the automotive side. Because of the added risk to a core competitive advantage, IMO Tesla will need to tread very carefully on when and how it introduces production in China.

 

[racer26]

I can see the confusion. Just the other day I tried to hop in my Allen Edmonds and drive to work but the things wouldn't budge.

I'm impressed you were even able to hop your whole body into them.

 

[Lump]

I suspect that Pence will ask Musk to cool down on tweeting against administration policies, if he is to remain with the advisory group. Musk would likely agree, since he has already made his opinions known publicly yet wants to remain influential with Trump. If Trump had already decided to fire Musk, then that likely would have been the subject of the White House press release rather than notice of a phone call.

Phone call with Musk probably related to the Republican carbon tax plan.
Prominent Republicans Push Carbon Tax in White House Meeting

 

[doctoxics]

I suspect that Pence will ask Musk to cool down on tweeting against administration policies, if he is to remain with the advisory group. Musk would likely agree, since he has already made his opinions known publicly yet wants to remain influential with Trump. If Trump had already decided to fire Musk, then that likely would have been the subject of the White House press release rather than notice of a phone call.

We may have a carbon tax in the works.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/07/...p-calls-for-carbon-tax.html?ref=business&_r=0

 

[neroden]

Exactly this! And IMHO it is likely Elon's/Tesla's understanding that most of the world (and still almost every analysts) are not ready to grasp this concept. Why should they with so much FUD telling them that electrical sustainable transport/solar/battery storage/and even distributed generation are still just a pipe dream? Can we really fault them for this? So as a result, Elon/Tesla are 'almost' in checkmate when it comes to any PR regarding near term planning efforts - particularly IF a cap raise is desired.

I think Tesla is in a position where, due to the psychology of the markets, they shouldn't do a capital raise (and probably won't) until they are showing consistent Model 3 profits. After that, they probably will, in order to accelerate construction of gigafactories around the world. But they want to do the raise at $500/share with profits well in excess of overhead and a great credit rating, not $250/share barely breaking even with a mediocre credit rating.

I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla has a bunch of plans ready to go as soon as they are in a good position to raise more money.

 

[racer26]

I think Tesla is in a position where, due to the psychology of the markets, they shouldn't do a capital raise (and probably won't) until they are showing consistent Model 3 profits. After that, they probably will, in order to accelerate construction of gigafactories around the world. But they want to do the raise at $500/share with profits well in excess of overhead and a great credit rating, not $250/share barely breaking even with a mediocre credit rating.

I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla has a bunch of plans ready to go as soon as they are in a good position to raise more money.

Exactly.

No sense in trying to do a cap raise before Model 3 when you know that you can get to Model 3 production without it, and once you do, the market will be happy to throw big piles of cash at you.

 

[techmaven]

Agreed. I remember a valued member from a couple years ago, @CapOppressor who was bumped out when they announced only ONE GF. He felt it best to be building at least 3-4 IIRC.

Note that from the original Gigafactory announcement of 35 GWh of cell production and 50 GWh of pack production, the Gigafactory 1 is now roughly triple the size. So in effect, they are building 3. Clearly, they will need to have at least one in each major region (North America, Europe, and Asia). Hopefully Trump's administration can win some concessions from China on the terms of creating factories in China. It's definitely unfair right now.

 

[mutle]

We may have a carbon tax in the works.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/07/...p-calls-for-carbon-tax.html?ref=business&_r=0

This seems like a really bad idea, though:

The proposal would also insulate fossil fuel companies against possible lawsuits over the damage their products have caused to the environment.

 

[neroden]

We may have a carbon tax in the works.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/07/...p-calls-for-carbon-tax.html?ref=business&_r=0

I wish them luck. The carbon tax will be smaller than it should be (as it has been in every country that has implemented it) but it's still the best option out there.

However, as long as Trump is listening to Rasputin, I mean Bannon, I think it has very little chance. A good sign is that Ivanka and Jared Kushner seem to be discussing the carbon tax. And Bannon blindsided Ivanka and Kushner by releasing the anti-Muslim "immigration order" while they were observing the Sabbath; something Trump might not forgive.

This seems like a really bad idea, though:

The proposal would also insulate fossil fuel companies against possible lawsuits over the damage their products have caused to the environment.

It is a terrible idea but I think it is probably inevitable. The companies which poisoned everyone in the world with lead, made people stupid and violent, caused crime waves and probably caused several wars... have basically gotten away with it. The fossil fuel companies have a better defense than the tetraethyl lead manufacturers. I think they were going to get away with it regardless.

 

[Ovulation]

@jhm, I agree with the need to rapidly build out Gigafactories, but I do think China is a special case.

I believe Elon recently said that Tesla's manufacturing capabilities will give it a competitive advantage over the next 10 years. In that context, China's lax protection of IP -- in this case trade secrets and know-how around manufacturing -- is a huge risk. On the flip side, China has the potential to be the biggest single market in the world for Tesla, at least on the automotive side. Because of the added risk to a core competitive advantage, IMO Tesla will need to tread very carefully on when and how it introduces production in China.

I don't think for a company like Tesla the China copy and paste stuff is a problem. Tesla has a strong brand* and its so innovative that the copy and pasters will have problems to catch up. IMO Tesla also believes that, after all they gave away their patents.

The secret of Teslas innovation pace is that the CEO is the biggest shareholder, so he is more independent form short sided shareholders and with Musk as CEO I think we have a really bold capable guy. I certainly wouldn't had the balls to built a Gigafactory in the sands of Nevada with no idea if the demand was there and an other nice thing about Musk is that he is a great engineer, so he knows what possible and he shoot for it ... Musk is special, you don't built rockets that land themselves by accident.

*people in China buy iPhones like crazy even though China phones are cheaper and some argue better.

 

[SunCatcher]

At the risk of being told I probably wear aluminum hats, I personally believe Elon/Tesla have already been successfully wooed to at least one location overseas already, but have an agreement in place with that country and its investors on the announcement date so that it does not disrupt a cap raise and/or the Model 3 roll-out.

I think Elon's prime reason for agreeing to be on Trump's advisory team, is to figure out how to build a Gigafactory in another country, and get that country to pay for it.

 

[vgrinshpun]

We may have a carbon tax in the works.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/07/...p-calls-for-carbon-tax.html?ref=business&_r=0

This could be a very powerful catalyst for TSLA. We are seeing some short covering which might be related to this: 2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

 

[Curt Renz]

I suspect that Pence will ask Musk to cool down on tweeting against administration policies, if he is to remain with the advisory group. Musk would likely agree, since he has already made his opinions known publicly yet wants to remain influential with Trump. If Trump had already decided to fire Musk, then that likely would have been the subject of the White House press release rather than notice of a phone call.

We may have a carbon tax in the works.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/07/...p-calls-for-carbon-tax.html?ref=business&_r=0

It's indeed possible that that is what Pence would like to discuss that with Musk. Firing Musk from the advisory group would not be perceived well by much of the public, and Trump must be aware of that.

 

[traxila]

I wish them luck. The carbon tax will be smaller than it should be (as it has been in every country that has implemented it) but it's still the best option out there.

However, as long as Trump is listening to Rasputin, I mean Bannon, I think it has very little chance. A good sign is that Ivanka and Jared Kushner seem to be discussing the carbon tax. And Bannon blindsided Ivanka and Kushner by releasing the anti-Muslim "immigration order" while they were observing the Sabbath; something Trump might not forgive.



It is a terrible idea but I think it is probably inevitable. The companies which poisoned everyone in the world with lead, made people stupid and violent, caused crime waves and probably caused several wars... have basically gotten away with it. The fossil fuel companies have a better defense than the tetraethyl lead manufacturers. I think they were going to get away with it regardless.

This is on the money. We have no choice in the end. If the fossils know that retribution is off the table, their willingness to go with a new program based on science, common sense and the survival of humanity is amplified exponentially. If a carbon tax is possible it should be enacted immediately with the fossils given immunity if that is how it has to be. I have essentially despised fossils my enitre life, and yet I say this with confidence.