2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Drax7]

Let's talk about next 100 years, OK?

I listened to the proceeding live because I thought it might be historically important. I think that Washington will prevail and that in some way it may strengthen Elon's position with the administration. It's going to be an interesting four years.

Potus sister was a judge.

Wikipedia › wiki › Maryanne_Trump_B...
Maryanne Trump Barry (formerly Desmond; born April 5, 1937) is an attorney and an inactive Senior United States Circuit Judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit.

 

[T3slaTulips]

each 21070 cell has capacity of 12.87Wh.

I believe you meant 21700 cell (aka 21-70).

 

[Yggdrasill]

This article was re-tweeted by Elon, so the numbers are most likely correct.

I disagree. They would only need to be in the ballpark to be retweeted. We're talking about 6,082,560 cells with my estimates vs 6,462,720 cells in the article. They're in the ballpark.

Why do you think that 2170 cells that came from Japanese factories have new chemistry?

Because the Powerwall 1 had around 7.21 Wh/cell, and the 21-70s have around 50% greater volume. The expected capacity with no improvement in chemistry would be around 10.81 Wh/cell. Regardless of whether the article is correct or I am correct, the Powerwall/Powerpack 2 clearly has cells with more than 10.81 Wh.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Because the Powerwall 1 had around 7.21 Wh/cell, and the 21-70s have around 50% greater volume. The expected capacity with no improvement in chemistry would be around 10.81 Wh/cell. Regardless of whether the article is correct or I am correct, the Powerwall 2 clearly has cells with more than 10.81 Wh.

I was aware of this, my question was to clarify whether you have any other information on the new chemistry in 2170 cells coming from Japan.

If it is confirmed that Pana already has been running new chemistry in 2170 cells, it is pretty significant news.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I was aware of this, my question was to clarify whether you have any other information on the new chemistry in 2170 cells coming from Japan.

If it is confirmed that Pana already has been running new chemistry in 2170 cells, it is pretty significant news.

I don't have any information regarding the new chemistry beyond what can be deduced from various bits and pieces of publically available information.

 

[JBRR]

According to Robert from the Talking Tesla show a reliable source from the factory says Fremont will be shut down from Feb 18 to Feb 28 to prepare for Model 3. He says he's 100% certain it's happening.

Listened to this just now. He seems very certain. If they are doing this from Feb 18th can we expect them to reveal that during q4 er Q&A or q4 letter?

This would be the mother of all catalysts, no?

 

[schonelucht]

This would be the mother of all catalysts, no?

Why? They were already supposed to install a lot of Model 3 equipment last quarter (and quarter before that)

 

[racer26]

I was aware of this, my question was to clarify whether you have any other information on the new chemistry in 2170 cells coming from Japan.

If it is confirmed that Pana already has been running new chemistry in 2170 cells, it is pretty significant news.

Not sure why it would be that significant.

If you're already converting equipment to build 21-70 cells, and you know that the equipment at Gigafactory is going to be doing so with new chemistry, why not convert the Osaka equipment to new chemistry as well?

 

[racer26]

Why? They were already supposed to install a lot of Model 3 equipment last quarter (and quarter before that)

Because Model 3 progress significant enough to require shutdown of Fremont for 10 days likely means its big heavy equipment (like the Schuler press) that means we're getting close to production validation prototypes?

Remember, much of the investment world doesn't believe Elon that we'll see production Model 3s in customer hands by the end of this year.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Not sure why it would be that significant.

If you're already converting equipment to build 21-70 cells, and you know that the equipment at Gigafactory is going to be doing so with new chemistry, why not convert the Osaka equipment to new chemistry as well?

Agree that it would be logical thing to do, but my point was that it is not known/widely acknowledged. If 2170 with new chemistry already has been produced for some time at Japanese factories, it somewhat de-risks startup of the production at GF, as at least some inevitable issues were already worked through.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Pence and Musk to talk on phone Wednesday

Vice President Mike Pence and Tesla Inc.(TSLA) chief executive Elon Musk are scheduled to talk on the phone on Wednesday afternoon, the White House announced. The purpose of the call was not disclosed. Musk has tried to distance himself from President Donald Trump even though he is a member of the president's economic advisory council. Musk tweeted that being on the advisory council did not mean he agreed with the administration's actions.

 

[racer26]

Because Model 3 progress significant enough to require shutdown of Fremont for 10 days likely means its big heavy equipment (like the Schuler press) that means we're getting close to production validation prototypes?

Remember, much of the investment world doesn't believe Elon that we'll see production Model 3s in customer hands by the end of this year.

Perhaps reveal part three, which most of us expect around the end of March, will show off production validation protos instead of betas like we thought?

 

[Hogfighter]

just head over to the Yahoo Finance feed for TSLA. to your point, it's not as high a percentage of attempted cold water pouring as six months ago, but those efforts are still there on a daily basis.

Anton, Paulo, Spiegel, Yahoo et al don't make the grade to be included in the Index. It has to be a news source, not a carnival barker.

 

[JBRR]

Why? They were already supposed to install a lot of Model 3 equipment last quarter (and quarter before that)

Would imply they are ready to start producing mules.

 

[schonelucht]

We've had enough shutdowns that just an announcement of that alone would not excite investors too much. However, if they say that they are ready to produce mules after this shutdown, yes that would be an excellent catalyst.

 

[racer26]

Anton, Paulo, Spiegel, Yahoo et al don't make the grade to be included in the Index. It has to be a news source, not a carnival barker.

No fake news or alternative facts allowed in the Hog Negativity Index.

 

[mikevbf]

There is a surge of investment and activity in gigafactory where in addition to batteries, Tesla will produce the Model 3 drive units lining up nicely with the start of mule production.

 

[Ameliorate]

Perhaps reveal part three, which most of us expect around the end of March, will show off production validation protos instead of betas like we thought?

I just hope M3 part 3 reveal, has some M3's driven on stage by a Tesla Semi, is that too much to ask??!! They could self drive themselves off the truck if you really want to impress.

 

[Paracelsus]

........ Whether GF2 is in China or Europe is inconsequential because both will be needed in within the next three years and a third one somewhere else. India, Peru, UAE, who knows?

Exactly this! And IMHO it is likely Elon's/Tesla's understanding that most of the world (and still almost every analysts) are not ready to grasp this concept. Why should they with so much FUD telling them that electrical sustainable transport/solar/battery storage/and even distributed generation are still just a pipe dream? Can we really fault them for this? So as a result, Elon/Tesla are 'almost' in checkmate when it comes to any PR regarding near term planning efforts - particularly IF a cap raise is desired. Those that drank the FUD koolaid believe Tesla is already overextended with their Gigafactory 1 investments, and they don't even talk about Buffalo. Imagine the bear argument/FUD frenzy that the Luddite's would have with an announcement that the next 3 projects @ $1B/each were in the planning stages and will be breaking ground soon............the shorts would have enough FUD to eat our lunch, and 40 Million short shares may seem small after that announcement.

However...........those of us that drink the Elon/Tesla koolaid are confident that there is a crystal clear understanding by management of everything JHM posted here, and there must be a strategy in place for how to roll out the news that multiple projects are already in the works. What would be the best timing for this? IMHO it would have to be either AFTER the next cap raise (if one is really needed), or AFTER the Model 3 is SO real that FUD can no longer deny it. In either case an announcement of subsequent Gigafactories underway will have much less negative impact on future stock price and/or the ability to raise any of the capital needed for further expansion.

I do believe there is one more possibility that seems to be growing in significance and likelihood - and that is the growing rally of foreign countries and foreign investors for Tesla to build the next Gigafactory on their home turf. If/When Elon negotiates a deal(s) that exceeds even what SCTY received in Buffalo, where Tesla is provided the land matched with enough capital, tax breaks, support, skilled workforce, etc, etc, and it is in such a desirable logistic location that it would be foolish to pass up the opportunity, I think Elon might just allow that country and its investors make the announcement. And at the same time it will also announce to the world that when the offer is too sweet to refuse, any location around the globe that makes sound logistical sense to operate a Gigafactory in has the potential to bring Tesla's intellectual and manufacturing know-how to their backyard...............when they raise the ante and are willing to show the world their cards. It would appear that it is becoming a very desirable competition outside of the US and beyond our FUD-reach to see who may win this race.

At the risk of being told I probably wear aluminum hats, I personally believe Elon/Tesla have already been successfully wooed to at least one location overseas already, but have an agreement in place with that country and its investors on the announcement date so that it does not disrupt a cap raise and/or the Model 3 roll-out.

 

[AlMc]

None of us are thinking big enough about Gigafactories. Tesla needs to break ground on a new Gigafactory every year for at least the next 9 years.

The only way to keep growing battery capacity by say 50% per year over the next ten years is have multiple campuses that can expand by about 10 to 50 GWh per year. Suppose we have 50 GWh in 2018 and grow exponentially to 850 GWh in 2025. Now for 2026 we will need to add 425 GWh more capacity to reach 1275 cumulative capacity. So how do you build out 425 GWh in one year. If you have 9 campuses, each campus could add about 50 GWh. That seems plausible. But if you only have 4 campuses, then each one must add at lease 100 GWh in a single year. This seems unsustainable, if not implausible.

So once you wrap your head around the idea that Tesla needs 9 or more Gigafactory campuses by 2025 and these need to have lots of room for expansion, the question where to build the next GF becomes not such a big deal. Tesla needs to be looking at new sites on every continent. Whether GF2 is in China or Europe is inconsequential because both will be needed in within the next three years and a third one somewhere else. India, Peru, UAE, who knows?

Agreed. I remember a valued member from a couple years ago, @CapOppressor who was bummed out when they announced only ONE GF. He felt it best to be building at least 3-4 IIRC.