TrendTrader007
Active Member
I'm leaving TMC for good and posting my Tesla and Market opinions exclusively on Twitter starting today
My Twitter handle:
Alok Jain@ TrendTrader007
My Twitter handle:
Alok Jain@ TrendTrader007
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mickificki
Member
TrendTrader007, if you don't mind me asking, why r u leaving TMC?
EDIT: Ok, nevermind, can see the reason on your twitter.
EDIT: Ok, nevermind, can see the reason on your twitter.
Trump has no reason to fire Musk. Musk basically tweeted that they agree to disagree. He said much worse before the election that Trump is willing to overlook. If Musk delivers on jobs, a brand new renewable industry and rocket launches to Mars Trump will be the first to take credit. Trump is smart enough to know he is in a no lose situation with Elon.
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The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
I am inclined to believe that, in Trump's world, Musk's popularity factors not at all. Musk is actually very unpopular with Trump's base (those who actually heard of him, anyway), and that is the only segment he seems to be governing for.
Ha! We are too sedate for him. Well, the patterns of Twitter are definitely different from TMC, thank goodness. We're cautious because we've been burned. And many of us are just as bullish if not more so than he is... but I see the value here of many data driven, analysis driven voices that are just not gathered elsewhere. Further, when I trade other stocks, I wish there was such a strong community for those stocks as we see here.
Looking at his Twitter:
"the problem with TMC is those guys are so cautious that they could not make a million if it stared them straight in their face"
I've always admitted that I'm a super ultra mega cautious investor. I'm also not greedy. Tesla, however, has allowed me to do better than the S&P 500 for a few years running, *while* being safer (no exposure to fossil fuels, no exposure to crooked banks). So I'm happy with my ~$750K in gains so far.... I do expect more.
I stay here for the information. Information is what gives one an investment advantage. People dig out details on anything Tesla-related faster here than anywhere else.
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
racer26
Active Member
Yep. We can usually identify a catalyst within seconds of it hitting the airwaves and catching the early part of whatever waves it generates.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
What happened to the bull echo chamber?
He is got a point. If you are looking for a bull echo chamber TMC isn't it. Dare I say we are balanced???
I'm trying to figure out why the factory will be shutting down for 10 days. "Preparing for Model 3" is pretty vague.
Press installation? I suppose this is the most likely, but would it require an entire factory shutdown? This is probably a dumb question but couldn't they overproduce bodies and keep the plant otherwise running while tending to the press?
Installation of Model 3 line? This doesn't make sense to me because it's a totally separate line. Why stop S/X production then? Then again, I've never been to the factory so maybe I'm missing something obvious.
Improving the S/X lines for another step change improvement? This is my completely unsupported pet theory. Perhaps they are installing some early Alien Dreadnaught 0.5 technology on the S/X line to troubleshoot it before finalizing the Model 3 line? I know they generally want to test all Model 3 tech on the S/X first, so why not production tech too? Maybe they figured out the wiring harness automation procedures or something.
Press installation? I suppose this is the most likely, but would it require an entire factory shutdown? This is probably a dumb question but couldn't they overproduce bodies and keep the plant otherwise running while tending to the press?
Installation of Model 3 line? This doesn't make sense to me because it's a totally separate line. Why stop S/X production then? Then again, I've never been to the factory so maybe I'm missing something obvious.
Improving the S/X lines for another step change improvement? This is my completely unsupported pet theory. Perhaps they are installing some early Alien Dreadnaught 0.5 technology on the S/X line to troubleshoot it before finalizing the Model 3 line? I know they generally want to test all Model 3 tech on the S/X first, so why not production tech too? Maybe they figured out the wiring harness automation procedures or something.
Interesting point, so you can order a HUD for the S or X in march ? ^^
theory: The factory chokepoint isn't actually the final assembly line. It's the parking lot. It is so stuffed that any parking lot disruption brings the factory down. Since they need a bunch of room to get the press and possibly other stuff in they are just using the time to do a endo-of-year style retooling and keeping the rank and file home so they have physical space to do the work.
We all know that its essentially impossible to find out anything that Tesla wants to keep secret. However, if they do shut the factory down for 10 days, wouldn't a simple car count in the employee parking lot confirm that it is actually happening? Unless Tesla plans on having their employees come in to work anyway, maybe for some long overdue communication training, or sensitivity training?
RT
jhm
Well-Known Member
Here's how I like to look at the distribution of Gigafactories.
Imagine we are in an alternative world of light much like our own except that we use renewable energy and batteries for all our energy needs. So we've got about 1B vehicles with about 70 to 100 TWh of batteries in them, and we've got 6 TW of power generation capacity backed up with about 30 to 60 TWh of batteries. So on an annual basis to maintain this worlds energy system, we need to replace about 10% of these 100 to 160 TWh of batteries. Thus we need to produce about 13,000 GWh batteries this year. This is how much Gigafactory capacity our alternative world needs.
Ok, back to this present darkness, according to the 2016 BP energy review, total primary energy consumption was 13,147.3 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe). And can see how that consumption is distributed across the globe here (http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pd...eview-of-world-energy-2016-primary-energy.pdf).
So let's bridge from the world of light to this present darkness. We need about 1 GWh of annual Gigafactory capacity per Mtoe of current consumption, about 13,000 of each. Naturally, there are advantages to have much of this GF capacity close to where energy is consumed.
So here is what each region needs roughly:
China ....................................3000 GWh
Asia Pacific, excl. China .......2500 GWh
Europe & Eurasia .................2800 GWh
US ........................................2300 GWh
Americas, excl. US ..............1200 GWh
Middle East ...........................900 GWh
Africa .....................................450 GWh
Naturally some regions may be better suited for exporting by virtue of proximity to raw materials, abundant cheap solar and other renewable energy, infrastructure, trade agreements and other issues. The Americas, ME and Africa may prove to be exceptional exporters. Regions which must import lots of raw materials may do well to focus on recycling and import recyclables. Additionally some regions are growing faster than others, so this needs to be anticipated.
So I'd like to see our world grow into roughly this distribution of GF capacity by 2030. If Tesla wants to own say 10% of this market, then it will need 2 or 3 campuses in each of the top four regions, 1 or 2 in the Americas (excl. US) and the Middle East, and 1 in Africa. This is 11 to 15 campuses worldwide for Tesla.
The beauty of rolling out this 13,150 GWh capacity by 2030 is that this alternative world of light is will not lag too far behind. Sure, this is about a 130 fold increase in capacity over 14 years, but growing GF capacity at about 41.5% per year achieves this. Seven doublings in 14 years, and the dark age of oil will fade from sight.
Imagine we are in an alternative world of light much like our own except that we use renewable energy and batteries for all our energy needs. So we've got about 1B vehicles with about 70 to 100 TWh of batteries in them, and we've got 6 TW of power generation capacity backed up with about 30 to 60 TWh of batteries. So on an annual basis to maintain this worlds energy system, we need to replace about 10% of these 100 to 160 TWh of batteries. Thus we need to produce about 13,000 GWh batteries this year. This is how much Gigafactory capacity our alternative world needs.
Ok, back to this present darkness, according to the 2016 BP energy review, total primary energy consumption was 13,147.3 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe). And can see how that consumption is distributed across the globe here (http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pd...eview-of-world-energy-2016-primary-energy.pdf).
So let's bridge from the world of light to this present darkness. We need about 1 GWh of annual Gigafactory capacity per Mtoe of current consumption, about 13,000 of each. Naturally, there are advantages to have much of this GF capacity close to where energy is consumed.
So here is what each region needs roughly:
China ....................................3000 GWh
Asia Pacific, excl. China .......2500 GWh
Europe & Eurasia .................2800 GWh
US ........................................2300 GWh
Americas, excl. US ..............1200 GWh
Middle East ...........................900 GWh
Africa .....................................450 GWh
Naturally some regions may be better suited for exporting by virtue of proximity to raw materials, abundant cheap solar and other renewable energy, infrastructure, trade agreements and other issues. The Americas, ME and Africa may prove to be exceptional exporters. Regions which must import lots of raw materials may do well to focus on recycling and import recyclables. Additionally some regions are growing faster than others, so this needs to be anticipated.
So I'd like to see our world grow into roughly this distribution of GF capacity by 2030. If Tesla wants to own say 10% of this market, then it will need 2 or 3 campuses in each of the top four regions, 1 or 2 in the Americas (excl. US) and the Middle East, and 1 in Africa. This is 11 to 15 campuses worldwide for Tesla.
The beauty of rolling out this 13,150 GWh capacity by 2030 is that this alternative world of light is will not lag too far behind. Sure, this is about a 130 fold increase in capacity over 14 years, but growing GF capacity at about 41.5% per year achieves this. Seven doublings in 14 years, and the dark age of oil will fade from sight.
I don't remember seeing the face of TrendTrader007 when I had half my portfolio in TSLA at $30 (near 90% now).
If you're late to the party, I guess you need a lot of Bull to make your first mil...
[I agree with neroden - the forum and all investors are best served against a framework of facts and broad opinion. That served us well then, and continues to do so IMO].
And by the way, many here that are bullish on TSLA- are also properly wary of the macro market factors which can override any security- we were just there a few short years ago...
sub
Active Member
I think your joking here but just a bit more details about that piece of fake news that claims a Chinese company 50/50 deal with Tesla. In the original text it also said "China is and has the potential of becoming Tesla's biggest market". Yes you read that right, it did say something out of logic like this. Also it said "Tesla will move it's RND center to Shanghai". Yeh why not? The original text was so absurd that I didn't bother to post it here when it came out (three days ago). And the Chinese company mentioned in that fake news released an official statement yesterday denying it.
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