2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[madodel]

Reuters is usually pretty reliable, though. And this is a v specific claim:

"Separately, sources told Reuters that the luxury electric carmaker planned to begin test-building the Model 3 on Feb. 20.
The sources did not know how many of the highly anticipated vehicles Tesla aimed to build in February, but it would likely be a small number to test the assembly system and the quality of vehicle parts."

But were the sources TMC? ;-)

 

[Fallenone]

Baird Is A Buyer Of Tesla (TSLA) Ahead Of Its Earnings

"Baird’s Ben Kallo believes that the Q4 results could be a de-risking event for Tesla Inc TSLA 2.34% in the near term and recommends buying the shares.

The analyst maintains an Outperform rating on the company, with a price target of $338.

Expectations From The Call
“We expect updates on the Model 3 and Gigafactory production ramps on the call, which we believe will drive shares higher,” Kallo mentioned.

Kallo now expects 25,000 Model 3 deliveries in 2017, and expressed confidence that Tesla would be able to ramp production, although the company was unlikely to give a specific Model 3 guidance.

In addition, the analyst expects less focus on the SolarCity Corp(previously traded NASDAQSCTY acquisition, “although there may be short-term noise as expectations are calibrated.”

I could get my M3 this year if this 25k deliveries turns out to be true. Nice.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Baird Is A Buyer Of Tesla (TSLA) Ahead Of Its Earnings

"Baird’s Ben Kallo believes that the Q4 results could be a de-risking event for Tesla Inc TSLA 2.34% in the near term and recommends buying the shares.

The analyst maintains an Outperform rating on the company, with a price target of $338.

Expectations From The Call
“We expect updates on the Model 3 and Gigafactory production ramps on the call, which we believe will drive shares higher,” Kallo mentioned.

Kallo now expects 25,000 Model 3 deliveries in 2017, and expressed confidence that Tesla would be able to ramp production, although the company was unlikely to give a specific Model 3 guidance.

In addition, the analyst expects less focus on the SolarCity Corp(previously traded NASDAQSCTY acquisition, “although there may be short-term noise as expectations are calibrated.”

As expected after a nice run they come out and recommend the stock. Hopefully we can go higher but if not the average Joe that take this advice will be selling if Tesla hits 250 cuz they can't take the drop. Silly.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

I could get my M3 this year if this 25k deliveries turns out to be true. Nice.

Wish us luck!

 

[Fallenone]

Wish us luck!

And probably paid by the shorts. Am I too greedy?

 

[EinSV]

And probably paid by the shorts. Am I too greedy?

No. And it is no violation of forum protocol either. As far as I know, the ban on poetry does not extend to poetic justice

 

[dalalsid]

I'm wondering if I should put a sell order for some high amount like 1000 or something for a short squeeze

 

[RobStark]

Kallo now expects 25,000 Model 3 deliveries in 2017, and expressed confidence that Tesla would be able to ramp production, although the company was unlikely to give a specific Model 3 guidance.

From 2017 Prediction Competition thread

133,333 Total.

60k Model S
50k Model X
23,333 Model 3.

Further predict there will be ~2k Model 3s in Tesla stores on Dec 31,2017 undelivered for various dog ate my homework reasons.

 

[dmckinstry]

I'm wondering if I should put a sell order for some high amount like 1000 or something for a short squeeze

Sure. But not all of your stock.

 

[Paracelsus]

I'm wondering if I should put a sell order for some high amount like 1000 or something for a short squeeze

Here is the trading chart that we printed out and posted all around our house - its our Law of Attraction visual. We have considered putting a sell order for some of our shares at this price

 

[racer26]

I could get my M3 this year if this 25k deliveries turns out to be true. Nice.

As a first day, California reservation holder (not sure if MS/X owner)? I never questioned if you'd get your M3 this year. I consider it a near-certainty.

I'm expecting to get mine as a first-day Canadian reservation holder around March-May 2018.

 

[dalalsid]

" The limit price you have entered is too far away from the Bid Price for this security. Please use the following guidelines when entering your limit price: For sell limit orders in which your limit price is above the current Bid Price, your limit price can be no more than 50% away from the Bid Price." - this is fidelity

 

[mmd]

Tesla: You're gonna lose your shorts.
Shorts: Oh dear. Oh well. They're soaked with sweat anyway. We're outa here!

It is not like every short entered at $180. It is like saying, every long bought at ATH or 52 week high, and has no paper profit. Shorts also go in and out, and some will reenter at the highs.
Tesla is known to be a yo-yo stock. My range was 180-240. Now, it's adjusted to 200-270 because of the whole market has gone up 10%.

 

[Fallenone]

As a first day, California reservation holder (not sure if MS/X owner)? I never questioned if you'd get your M3 this year. I consider it a near-certainty.

I'm expecting to get mine as a first-day Canadian reservation holder around March-May 2018.

But there are also employee and S/X owner that gets ahead of me. Plus I'm not planning to get a maxed out M3 so those near my spot who do go for maxed out options would be ahead too.

 

[racer26]

But there are also employee and S/X owner that gets ahead of me. Plus I'm not planning to get a maxed out M3 so those near my spot who do go for maxed out options would be ahead too.

It all comes down to how much Tesla batches based on optioning and region.

ex. do 4/1/2016 buyers in CA get it before 3/31/2016 buyers on the east coast, etc.

Nobody really knows. I'm expecting >50k Model 3 in 2017 though, so that would suggest about 1/3 of all first-day reservation holders.

 

[Paracelsus]

" The limit price you have entered is too far away from the Bid Price for this security. Please use the following guidelines when entering your limit price: For sell limit orders in which your limit price is above the current Bid Price, your limit price can be no more than 50% away from the Bid Price." - this is fidelity

Thanks for posting this. It suggests to me that the brokerage houses lose some of the control they have on share price direction when we 'lock up' our shares in a manner that they are only accessible after the stock is allowed to run (my aluminum hat is on once again)

 

[winfield100]

Thanks for posting this. It suggests to me that the brokerage houses lose some of the control they have on share price direction when we 'lock up' our shares in a manner that they are only accessible after the stock is allowed to run (my aluminum hat is on once again)

be cautious of the wording, i had what i THOUGHT was a limit order to sell 100 shares @ $1,000/share with my brokerage and it sold at the ask almost immediately and i lost 2 shares out of 100 because i had to buy back at a slitely higher price and lost 2 comissions to boot.
I have explicitely told my brokerage NOT to loan my shares for shorting, and ask again occasionally now to be sure.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I'm sure the Model 3 news this quarter will add a nice bump in confidence and excitement, but the real squeeze happens when Model 3's are rolling out nicely and Elon lays down the total package for sale. US manufactured solar/EV/storage all for zero down and less than you pay now for monthly electricity and transport.

When they announce that product and the line starts forming, look out. Maybe as soon as July/August? I could see them doing a test run only for Model 3 res holders in established Tesla Energy(SolarCity) markets. Elon has all the pieces, if he can package it with far less sales cost, Tesla becomes untouchable.

 

[jhm]

The market has determined that Tesla is worth $269.

 

[dalalsid]

" The limit price you have entered is too far away from the Bid Price for this security. Please use the following guidelines when entering your limit price: For sell limit orders in which your limit price is above the current Bid Price, your limit price can be no more than 50% away from the Bid Price." - this is fidelity

FYI, merrill edge let me place the order