2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[kenliles]

Here is the deal. No one knows. In 2012.. I think I bought into Tsla at 33 bucks or so. I should of just held. .i kept reading this board....but probably listened to the wrong folk or more probably just misinterpreted everything. I sold...and bought...and sold and bought...always regretting the sell and buying for higher . I studied the Vw graph...and always thought prices would go up then down. But it did niot. Just up.. I should of just given luv2b all my money and then I probably woulD be on the same beach s/he is at right now.

So here is what I am going to do. Nothing but hold. Boring. Unsexy. And even if it shoots up and comes down I can live with that. But I cannot afford to chase it again...I still have less shares than I did initially.

Wise-

What's always worked well for me is to establish the conviction and objective balance for your economic situation ;
then invest in separate layers:
Layer 1- Core conviction layer for 10 yr outlook (about 80% for my TSLA)
- hold stock and don't sell (only add)- outside some world calamity of course
Layer 2- Some % of total (about 10% for my TSLA)
- move between stock-LEAPS-Cash dependent on Tesla cycles
Layer 3- Some % of total (about 10% for my TSLA)
- move between stock-LEAPS-Cash dependent on macro cycles

I currently sit with Layer 2 half in stock half in cash and Layer 3 in all cash - those positions satisfy my angst regarding market conditions without effecting the gains based on core convictions - Adjust the size of the layers with time according to conviction changes but make sure they are grounded in facts first.
This works well for those investments you know (and grok) very well, regarding the underlying management - technologies - etc.
Has worked for me over the decades- getting thru Apple for example surviving Great Recession / S Jobs death etc. etc.
Ditto for Amazon / Google
Currently I'm virtually all Tesla as the conviction has largely played out with most others over the years and decades...
my 2c

edit: I should note, this method for Tesla produced most of my current core position at $28 through $40; I've added to the core over the years from gains in the other Layers through about $200 - while maintaining the trade layers. But it works well no matter when you enter imo

 

[dennis]

Reuters is usually pretty reliable, though. And this is a v specific claim:

"Separately, sources told Reuters that the luxury electric carmaker planned to begin test-building the Model 3 on Feb. 20.
The sources did not know how many of the highly anticipated vehicles Tesla aimed to build in February, but it would likely be a small number to test the assembly system and the quality of vehicle parts."

I still don't understand how Tesla could be testing an assembly system that did not exist at all 7 weeks ago. And before we have seen a single beta prototype.

EDIT: Good to see that Fred at Electrek got it right!

Though Reuters makes it sound like a pre-production of the Model 3, if true, it is more likely the production of a beta prototype fleet.

Tesla to make a Model 3 pre-production run on February 20, says supply chain sources

 

[vgrinshpun]

I still don't understand how Tesla could be testing an assembly system that did not exist at all 7 weeks ago. And before we have seen a single beta prototype.

EDIT: Good to see that Fred at Electrek got it right!

Tesla to make a Model 3 pre-production run on February 20, says supply chain sources

If they are indeed planning to build prototypes (and we do not know for sure), it is IMO to test final design, NOT production equipment. Testing of production equipment will come later, after the final design is tested and installation of production equipment complete.

I think that the journalist possibly mixed up final design prototype (which gets tested first) with the production equipment prototype.

 

[dennis]

Went from low 30s in early 2013 to 190 in Sept., jogged down to 120s in November, then back to 240s in spring 2014. You could have doubled your money in a couple months in early 2013, sold out, and commenced to kicking yourself, repeatedly.

Been there, done that ($27->$90). Bought back in @ $177. Been adding ever since.

 

[everman]

When will short interest come out for the end of January?

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest

 

[kenliles]

for those following the AP 2 roll out:

 

[Krugerrand]

We bust through 52 week highs like it's butter and all we have is Bgarret eating popcorn trying not to be excited, ev-enthusiast drinking coffee TRYING to get excited but then giving up and switching to decaf...and what about the rest of you? Yeah, Tesla could come out and say the rumors are false, or an earthquake could hit Fremont today, MMD could turn bullish and signal the top or who knows what because anything is possible but this is a pretty good day so far for someone in a Tesla Motors Club.

Tame. All of you. Tame.

I'm waiting for the $1T market cap to get excited. Right now, it's barely worth my while to get out of bed to brush my teeth.

 

[Krugerrand]

"It is not about actual hard news, I's about sentiment and belief."

sounds like a solid foundation for a valuation that is approaching BMW.

Which is simply the converse of what shorts have done all along. Vaporware, won't happen, will be bankrupt by xyz, etc... All of which sounded like a solid foundation for a 'this stock is going to 0'.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

Perhaps a bit off topic, but Musk related: Trump advisers' space plan: To moon, Mars and beyond

 

[MitchJi]

If they are indeed planning to build prototypes (and we do not know for sure), it is IMO to test final design, NOT production equipment. Testing of production equipment will come later, after the final design is tested and installation of production equipment complete.

I think that the journalist possibly mixed up final design prototype (which gets tested first) with the production equipment prototype.

The question is what will happen when (if?) the market realizes it's a mistake?

Pullback to $260?

 

[Drax7]

The question is what will happen when (if?) the market realizes it's a mistake?

Pullback to $260?

Negate the gap

 

[DaveT]

When will short interest come out for the end of January?

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest

Today at 4pm ET.

 

[Hogfighter]

Tesla: We're gonna build Model 3 in 2017
Shorts: You're smoking crack
Tesla: We're building a big ass factory in Nevada to make batteries
Shorts: You're gonna go bankrupt
Tesla: We're installing robots next week to build the 3
Shorts: I'm doubling down
Tesla: Lots of folks want to buy our batteries, and we're making lots of them now
Shorts: It's all a smokescreen
Tesla: We don't need more money to do any of it
Shorts: Stop talking. No one believes you

Fun seeing it all play out, isn't it?

 

[Lump]

Record highs today for: S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow.

TWTR -9%, please take it away from POTUS.

 

[AudubonB]

Guess it might be time for your local friendly mild-mannered Moderator to be the token bear.

It looks to me as though TSLA isn't going to hit $1000 any time soon.

It looks as though someone has placed a prediction in the "You Called It" thread. Since we discourage cross-postings, here you go: Prediction Thread - "You Called It"

 

[racer26]

Tesla: We're gonna build Model 3 in 2017
Shorts: You're smoking crack
Tesla: We're building a big ass factory in Nevada to make batteries
Shorts: You're gonna go bankrupt
Tesla: We're installing robots next week to build the 3
Shorts: I'm doubling down
Tesla: Lots of folks want to buy our batteries, and we're making lots of them now
Shorts: It's all a smokescreen
Tesla: We don't need more money to do any of it
Shorts: Stop talking. No one believes you

Fun seeing it all play out, isn't it?

That's approximately what's happening

You forgot the part where:

Tesla (Jan 2016): We just sold 51,000 Model S in 2015. We're gonna build and sell 80-90k Model S+X in 2016.
Shorts + Market as a whole: Bahahahahhaa you can't grow 50%+ YoY. Impossible. Car companies don't do that. Nice pipe dream though.
Tesla (Jan 2017): So we delivered 76,000+ cars. Built 81,000. What say you?
Shorts: 76,000 < 80-90k n00b. Can't even meet your own targets.
Tesla: Sure, but... still 50% YoY growth, and if not for a minor production hiccup throwing deliveries a week off schedule, we would have met the goal you said was impossible.

 

[Driver Dave]

Tesla: We're gonna build Model 3 in 2017
Shorts: You're smoking crack
Tesla: We're building a big ass factory in Nevada to make batteries
Shorts: You're gonna go bankrupt
Tesla: We're installing robots next week to build the 3
Shorts: I'm doubling down
Tesla: Lots of folks want to buy our batteries, and we're making lots of them now
Shorts: It's all a smokescreen
Tesla: We don't need more money to do any of it
Shorts: Stop talking. No one believes you

Fun seeing it all play out, isn't it?

Owners: My god, this car is amazing. This is the future. I'm now long TSLA. And bought a ton at 190.
Shorts: I don't own one. I don't know what you are talking about. I shorted a ton at 190.

 

[mmd]

If they are indeed planning to build prototypes (and we do not know for sure), it is IMO to test final design, NOT production equipment. Testing of production equipment will come later, after the final design is tested and installation of production equipment complete.

I think that the journalist possibly mixed up final design prototype (which gets tested first) with the production equipment prototype.

So can anyone explain what happened to the Schuler press installation that was talked about in the GF investor gathering, IIRC? Wasn't that supposed to be installed in Jan or Feb?
Why would that not be installed during the factory shut down?

I'm really not understanding what paint shop capacity increase is needed now to make a few test vehicles. And what "increase production days" means in the Tesla statement.

 

[SunCatcher]

Tesla: We're gonna build Model 3 in 2017
Shorts: You're smoking crack
Tesla: We're building a big ass factory in Nevada to make batteries
Shorts: You're gonna go bankrupt
Tesla: We're installing robots next week to build the 3
Shorts: I'm doubling down
Tesla: Lots of folks want to buy our batteries, and we're making lots of them now
Shorts: It's all a smokescreen
Tesla: We don't need more money to do any of it
Shorts: Stop talking. No one believes you

Fun seeing it all play out, isn't it?

Tesla: You're gonna lose your shorts.
Shorts: Oh dear. How, will we recognize ourselves when we look in the mirror?

 

[JBRR]

Baird Is A Buyer Of Tesla (TSLA) Ahead Of Its Earnings

"Baird’s Ben Kallo believes that the Q4 results could be a de-risking event for Tesla Inc TSLA 2.34% in the near term and recommends buying the shares.

The analyst maintains an Outperform rating on the company, with a price target of $338.

Expectations From The Call
“We expect updates on the Model 3 and Gigafactory production ramps on the call, which we believe will drive shares higher,” Kallo mentioned.

Kallo now expects 25,000 Model 3 deliveries in 2017, and expressed confidence that Tesla would be able to ramp production, although the company was unlikely to give a specific Model 3 guidance.

In addition, the analyst expects less focus on the SolarCity Corp(previously traded NASDAQSCTY acquisition, “although there may be short-term noise as expectations are calibrated.”