2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[mrdoubleb]

This is just getting silly now:

Tesla Motors (TSLA) PT Raised to $187 at Goldman Sachs; Maintains 'Sell'

Honestly. What kind of world view does that represent if an analyst believes he can build a model that's so precise, that he needs to adjust it with 2 to 5$ when he gets new information.

If I was the boss of this guy I would be tempted to fire him just for the fact the adjusts a price target by 1.06% on a stock that is CLEARLY one of the hardest to accurately price in the entire market.

Not only that, but usually their reasoning is, that "yes, there is all this potential, but there is all this execution risk too". Now all indications today are, that Tesla is going to start M3 deliveries on schedule, and that S/X demand is still there and growing. Not to mention, even the sceptics (i.e. market value = zero) should clearly see the global demand for TE and how these products "sell themselves" after the past few weeks.

So in a few quarters, EOY, the latest, reality will set in as the numbers will prove the above. What then? The stock will rise from the current 260 to 300+ and never come back to the 187 level, while he is advising his clients to sell. I am sure they will say: "that's ok, man, you'll get it right next time!"

 

[ZsoZso]

This is just getting silly now:

Tesla Motors (TSLA) PT Raised to $187 at Goldman Sachs; Maintains 'Sell'

Honestly. What kind of world view does that represent if an analyst believes he can build a model that's so precise, that he needs to adjust it with 2 to 5$ when he gets new information.

If I was the boss of this guy I would be tempted to fire him just for the fact the adjusts a price target by 1.06% on a stock that is CLEARLY one of the hardest to accurately price in the entire market.

Do not forget that his average performance is around -40%, i.e. if you listen to his advice you lose nearly half your money each year. On the other hand, if you use him as a negative indicator doing exactly the opposite of what he suggest, you can make some good money...

ps: I wonder if there is any other job where you can survive with such horrible performance metric and not get fired

 

[kenliles]

ps: I wonder if there is any other job where you can survive with such horrible performance metric and not get fired

The Apprentice of the Free World- ?

 

[AlMc]

ps: I wonder if there is any other job where you can survive with such horrible performance metric and not get fired

The Apprentice of the Free World- ?

A weatherman. If there is reincarnation I will become a weatherman. No other person could keep their job being wrong that often.

 

[kenliles]

Successful splashdown of Dragon return of ISS cargo

Twitter

 

[1kEE]

The M3 prototype news is trickling up the media channels:

Tesla Model 3 'Release Candidates' Are Being Built Now: Reports

On the GS "upgrade" by $2 that is just ridiculous! I'm sitting here trying to understand how the average person would take it? Technically it's an upgrade so it's good, but the word "sell" is there so it's bad. And if anyone reading it looks at the $2 PT adjustment and had half a brain they'd stop reading and move on hahah.

 

[AlMc]

Excellent read on the future of EVs and AD.

Investing in the electric and autonomous driving revolution

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Excellent read on the future of EVs and AD.

Investing in the electric and autonomous driving revolution

Excellent. One of few articles published by the street with favorable Tesla narrative.

 

[FredTMC]

Excellent. One of few articles published by the street with favorable Tesla narrative.

The editor must've went on a bender Friday night and let this one through. If he was sober and thinking clearly, never would've allowed it.

 

[MitchJi]

Excellent read on the future of EVs and AD.

Investing in the electric and autonomous driving revolution

I'd say that it's got some good information on TSLA and Nvidia. Disagree with Mobileye and fiat. Fiat is doing everything it can to avoid change.


Though estimates on the size of the market vary, it's clear that change is coming, as the industry titans -- Ford, , General Motors and Fiat Chrysler -- are doing everything they can to keep up with the pace of change.

Ford recently announced it was buying self-driving car start-up Argo AI for $1 billion as it bets on artificial intelligence. Fiat Chrysler has partnered with Google spin-off Waymo working on autonomous driving. TheStreet's Jim Cramer recently experienced Waymo's self-driving cars, saying there's a good chance self-driving cars could be "standard equipment" by next decade.

 

[1kEE]

And then there's this pile:

We just drove the all-electric Chevy Bolt — and Tesla is officially in trouble

Complete with some awesome grammar:

"
Tesla's own sales have steadily increased, proving that there's solid demand for at least for Tesla electric cars,
"

Thinking about the overall newsfeeed balance over the weekend, seems more positive than negative!

Kinda surprised by the lack of TE news on Elon and Cannon-Brooks twitter tho.....

 

[MitchJi]

And then there's this pile:

We just drove the all-electric Chevy Bolt — and Tesla is officially in trouble

Complete with some awesome grammar:
"Tesla's own sales have steadily increased, proving that there's solid demand for at least for Tesla electric cars,"

Clearly, Tesla would be in less trouble if the Chevy Bolt were a bad car. But it isn't. Teslas have always blown me away. The Bolt blew me away for different reasons. I just hope Tesla is prepared to take this into account.
The Bolt blew him away because electric cars are superior, not because the Bolt is a superior ev!

 

[1kEE]

Clearly, Tesla would be in less trouble if the Chevy Bolt were a bad car. But it isn't. Teslas have always blown me away. The Bolt blew me away for different reasons. I just hope Tesla is prepared to take this into account.
The Bolt blew him away because electric cars are superior!

Elon stated many times that he considers the proliferation of electric cars, regardless of who makes them, to be good for both TSLA and the industry in general....

 

[ZsoZso]

And then there's this pile:

We just drove the all-electric Chevy Bolt — and Tesla is officially in trouble

The fundamental error in the author's thinking is that he assumes that electric cars form a separate market magically isolated from the ICE market. He makes the point that Model S was in a market of its own with no competition, while Model 3 will finally have a competition in the Bolt. Of course, the reality is completely different, Model S has stolen many ICE sales from Audi / Mercedes / BMW and so will the Model 3.

Tesla makes cars that are better than the equivalent ICE cars in the same market segment and priced competitively with them. Unfortunately, that is not the case for the Bolt, you can buy similar ICE hatchbacks for half the price of the Bolt.

 

[sundaymorning]

Clearly, Tesla would be in less trouble if the Chevy Bolt were a bad car. But it isn't. Teslas have always blown me away. The Bolt blew me away for different reasons. I just hope Tesla is prepared to take this into account.
The Bolt blew him away because electric cars are superior, not because the Bolt is a superior ev!

I didn't even bother click baiting myself to that article. There's just way to much masculinity in me to be associated with the Bolt. But whateves.

 

[FredTMC]

Here's some stupid questions regarding Model3 production:

1). Tesla is guiding to spend over $2B CapEx this year. Model3 Release Candidates are already in production using mostly production equipment, so looks as if remaining CapEx spend is for scaling out equipment to enable car volume, right?

2). Is Tesla planning to produce M3 at Fremont on a SINGLE "final assembly line" or more than one?

 

[geneclean55]

That article was a mess. I chuckled at this paragraph

Not because it won't get the Model 3 out on schedule and be able to collect on the nearly 400,000 pre-orders it has for the car. If anything, Tesla could launch the Model 3 sooner than expected this year, and because manufacturing automobiles is an industrial practice that has been perfected over a century, there's good reason to believe that Tesla will be able to build thousands of Model 3's every month, once the assembly lines in California get up to speed.

Followed by this paragraph further down the page

However, it's also possible that if the Model 3 is delayed or is slow to ramp up, Chevy will be preparing a mid-cycle refresh of the Bolt before Model 3 sales start to achieve some major momentum.

 

[kenliles]

European rocket scientists pledge to make first private Moon landing in 2018 - The Telegraph
European rocket scientists pledge to make first private Moon landing in 2018

'A group of rocket engineers called PTScientists (Part-time Scientists), has built a landing module and two rovers, which are expected to launch in 2018 on board Elon Musk’s SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket.'
[]
'The rovers have been built by Audi and include stereo cameras to capture images in 3D'

[]
“With this this step we are laying the groundwork for all future moon missions to come,” said Hannes Ametsreiter, Chief Executive of Vodafone Germany.
“When Elon Musk sends his first private passengers to Orbit the Moon in 2018 or ESA opens the doors of its moon village our Vodafone network will already be there.”

 

[SebastianR]

The fundamental error in the author's thinking is that he assumes that electric cars form a separate market magically isolated from the ICE market. He makes the point that Model S was in a market of its own with no competition, while Model 3 will finally have a competition in the Bolt. Of course, the reality is completely different, Model S has stolen many ICE sales from Audi / Mercedes / BMW and so will the Model 3.

The funny thing is, this is sooooo much more true in the Energy market. Go on, head on over to oilprice.com and see how these folks think, act, comment, write - they believe they are an island. Nothing gets to them. And the idea of renewables taking over is largely ignored. But the fight of wind vs. solar is taken very seriously...

 

[dc_h]

Funny view from Cramer on the Mobileye acquisition. How does he value Mobileye at 15 billion, as a smart investment, probably worth 100 billion in a few years, but sees Tesla as a cult?

Here's why Intel-Mobileye is the 'perfect acquisition', according to Jim Cramer