some interesting notes on price action.
1 the price range over the last month has compressed down to < 10% of the share price. this i think is the lowest level since last october and indicates price has found some stability in this 242-262 range.
2 tesla made a new 1 month trading low the day goldman downgraded to sell, feb. 27. today march 27 tesla is making a new 1 month high. if you go back and review all the new one month lows since late 2013, you will see that tesla always made several more fresh 1 month lows before recovering to a 1 month high. so this little action of making a 1 month low and then quickly recovering to a 1 month high, it's not something that's been seen in at least 3 years. this indicates to me a different type of strength to this trend than the trends of the past few years.
3 i've read commentary from other users about the monthly chart setup (maybe
@jesselivenomore ). i attached that monthly chart, which looks like an extended bull flag in the making. the narrow (in a log sense) range of the last 3 years implies that a breakout above the range could be quite powerful.
correction, monthly chart was posted by
@austinEV -
link - mine is practically plagiarizing him
4 the price action is lined up with the fundamental developments of the tesla energy and roof launch and the model 3 ramp.
5 compared to my last involvement with this stock in 2013, this time around awareness seems much higher. i remember elon's twitter account having i think 100k followers back in late 2012/early 2013. this time around he's at 7.5 million. it's almost two orders of magnitude difference.
6 i don't think there's another company running over $5 billion in annual revenue that is on pace to double (or triple) it's revenue run rate over the coming 18-24 months.
7 if they can ever turn a profit for a few quarters, there will be a near certain s&p 500 addition in the future as tesla is one of the largest american companies not in the s&p 500. to see how much that can affect a stock, look at what happened to ulta, which had a much smaller weight than tesla would have. at that point, just about every person with a 401k will be investing in tesla.
4-7 above are the fundamental factors that would drive a dramatic breakout of this 3 year range. the hardest thing for me and what i try to remind myself every day is that the time scale is playing out in months, not days or weeks. so the trade has to be managed carefully to make sure it doesn't wear out one's ability to hang on to an outsized position.