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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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Doing business in China :oops: Any guess's as to how many cars have been damaged in China over the last couple of years?
Tesla Model Xs fall off Chinese transport truck that broke apart during loading

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nuther Trump committee for EM
The (son-in-law)Kushner SWAT team - new Innovation Office

Trump taps Kushner to lead a SWAT team to fix government with business ideas

Interesting Highlights (but all of it a recommended read)
"
The White House Office of American Innovation, to be led by Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law and senior adviser.............
"

While the press will likely have a field day with everything that surrounds this, I must admit I see this has having the potential to be a very positive move. Not only does Kushner embrace technology, but both he and his executive officer (Ivanka) embrace the need to aggressively combat Climate Change (recall the recent spat between Ivanka and Bannon over this - which greatly displeased the POTUS..........and having a daughter I am pretty certain whose side he might be on if push came to shove). So this offers the potential for the Administration to take steps to move on Climate Change using technology without needing the support of their own party or even the Democrats that continue to support fracking, etc.

The irony in all this is that although this Administration continues to disappoint in its environmental and technical messages, surprises like this keep happening that continue to propel opportunities for Tesla Motors, Tesla Energy, and SpaceX - all of which are environmentally positive. I have literally come to the conclusion that it might be a sound way to invest by simply looking for the exact opposite opportunities/themes of the message in any Administration in recent times and ignore all the rest of the the noise as just more static.
 
While the press will likely have a field day with everything that surrounds this, I must admit I see this has having the potential to be a very positive move. Not only does Kushner embrace technology, but both he and his executive officer (Ivanka) embrace the need to aggressively combat Climate Change (recall the recent spat between Ivanka and Bannon over this - which greatly displeased the POTUS..........and having a daughter I am pretty certain whose side he might be on if push came to shove). So this offers the potential for the Administration to take steps to move on Climate Change using technology without needing the support of their own party or even the Democrats that continue to support fracking, etc.

The irony in all this is that although this Administration continues to disappoint in its environmental and technical messages, surprises like this keep happening that continue to propel opportunities for Tesla Motors, Tesla Energy, and SpaceX - all of which are environmentally positive. I have literally come to the conclusion that it might be a sound way to invest by simply looking for the exact opposite opportunities/themes of the message in any Administration in recent times and ignore all the rest of the the noise as just more static.

I agree with your sentiments.

I'm a bit concerned about Mr. Kushner's time, given he's been assigned the tasks of:

Fixing the Middle East
Fixing the Federal Gov't
Fixing Business?

All while testifying to Senate committees.
 
While the press will likely have a field day with everything that surrounds this, I must admit I see this has having the potential to be a very positive move. Not only does Kushner embrace technology, but both he and his executive officer (Ivanka) embrace the need to aggressively combat Climate Change (recall the recent spat between Ivanka and Bannon over this - which greatly displeased the POTUS..........and having a daughter I am pretty certain whose side he might be on if push came to shove). So this offers the potential for the Administration to take steps to move on Climate Change using technology without needing the support of their own party or even the Democrats that continue to support fracking, etc.
yeah- agree. Although I dislike the continued nepotism and related- I saw this as a positive. And actually think it's a good idea although not likely to be effective given the surrounding circumstances - I still like it conceptually--
 
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  • Informative
Reactions: Jonathan Hewitt
some interesting notes on price action.

1 the price range over the last month has compressed down to < 10% of the share price. this i think is the lowest level since last october and indicates price has found some stability in this 242-262 range.

2 tesla made a new 1 month trading low the day goldman downgraded to sell, feb. 27. today march 27 tesla is making a new 1 month high. if you go back and review all the new one month lows since late 2013, you will see that tesla always made several more fresh 1 month lows before recovering to a 1 month high. so this little action of making a 1 month low and then quickly recovering to a 1 month high, it's not something that's been seen in at least 3 years. this indicates to me a different type of strength to this trend than the trends of the past few years.

3 i've read commentary from other users about the monthly chart setup (maybe @jesselivenomore ). i attached that monthly chart, which looks like an extended bull flag in the making. the narrow (in a log sense) range of the last 3 years implies that a breakout above the range could be quite powerful.
correction, monthly chart was posted by @austinEV - link - mine is practically plagiarizing him

4 the price action is lined up with the fundamental developments of the tesla energy and roof launch and the model 3 ramp.

5 compared to my last involvement with this stock in 2013, this time around awareness seems much higher. i remember elon's twitter account having i think 100k followers back in late 2012/early 2013. this time around he's at 7.5 million. it's almost two orders of magnitude difference.

6 i don't think there's another company running over $5 billion in annual revenue that is on pace to double (or triple) it's revenue run rate over the coming 18-24 months.

7 if they can ever turn a profit for a few quarters, there will be a near certain s&p 500 addition in the future as tesla is one of the largest american companies not in the s&p 500. to see how much that can affect a stock, look at what happened to ulta, which had a much smaller weight than tesla would have. at that point, just about every person with a 401k will be investing in tesla.

4-7 above are the fundamental factors that would drive a dramatic breakout of this 3 year range. the hardest thing for me and what i try to remind myself every day is that the time scale is playing out in months, not days or weeks. so the trade has to be managed carefully to make sure it doesn't wear out one's ability to hang on to an outsized position.
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I agree with your sentiments.

I'm a bit concerned about Mr. Kushner's time, given he's been assigned the tasks of:

Fixing the Middle East
Fixing the Federal Gov't
Fixing Business?

All while testifying to Senate committees.

Let us hope he has enough humility to delegate when possible to non-career politicians that share a similar vision as he and Ivanka share regarding our hopes for the environment, and the technologies that support that effort. It would take little more than that to overcome the challenges of a schedule that is too full, but there always seems to be a rather short supply of humility in DC
 
End of quarter window dressing should be underway during the remainder of this week. That’s the tendency of money managers to prune away losing stocks and load up on winning stocks before a quarter ends. The snapshot of their portfolios at a quarter’s end then makes them appear to have been smart all quarter long. It may seem silly, but it often prevents their investors from questioning their choices.

TSLA is up 25% so far in the first quarter. It would likely be a beneficiary of window dressing.
 
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