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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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I cried watching the launch and re-entry. Thought I was crazy until I saw my wife was crying! An absolutely historic moment!

I should have bought more stock. Prepare for launch.

(And we repealed the stupid HB2 today!)
I get teary eyed even watching reruns of the previous launches and landings. I think I get caught up in the excitement of the Space X employees hollering and screaming in delight. They all look so damn young as well!
 
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Don't forget Hawthorne. :)
And Redmond WA (Greater Seattle)
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The fun part about this time is that it's a wonderful moment to just wonder.

What if Tesla created an app store?

Yes, I fully expect and predicted a long time ago that after or at Model 3 introduction we will see a Tesla app store, with apps running in a walled garden. The production volumes will certainly justify it! Also, fully-autonomous driving will free-up the driver to use the apps. I'd also like to see Amazon Alexa VUI (Voice User Interface) technology integrated into the Model 3 at some point. Frankly, I'd love to use it in my Model X today, since it wouldn't distract me from the road. People could order stuff from Bezos while driving around, so AMZN will make money from this very desirable demographic, too.

The are many other things Tesla could do if they wanted to monetize Model 3 owners, besides Tesla Network. One is to sell auto insurance with discounts off premium based upon various factors like % of time using fully autonomous driving, where and home much driven, etc., which only Tesla knows. This way, I wouldn't have had to pay anything for car insurance on my X when it spent 2 months 11/30-early Feb in the body shop waiting for parts to fix a collision with road debris that fell off a pick-up truck! :( They did give me a Model S loaner, however, so I didn't have to breathe fumes again at gas stations.
 
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Reddit user "electricmusk" who was first to report notes from the non-public investor call posted some new information.
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-some suppliers (there are hundreds - this set is less than 5) are experiencing 50% price reductions on similar parts from S to 3

-the smallest battery might be below 50kwh still hitting 215 mile range [in my opinion, this would be massive for margins, positive for TSLA holders, but I am skeptical]

-a different supplier indicated their model 3 parts have been shipping 10 units/week, and will ramp to 100 units/week in April, 1000 units/week in June, and 5000/week in Sept

-Model 3 may be farther along than people give them credit and Model Y is more like early 2020 - I was under impression it was early 2019 - will be very curious regarding the "next week" comment Elon Musk to reportedly share more info about the Tesla Model Y ‘next week’

anecdotally, I spoke with the manager of a car dealership who told me "the world will never go electric" a year ago, and this week just said "you're right, the world is going electric"

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Notes • r/teslamotors
 

NETRALNEWS.COM - Elon Musk’s futuristic ventures and risk-taking often draw mixed receptions in the U.S. In China, tech-industry leaders and investors hail him as a genius and visionary worth cheering on.

They buy Tesla cars and stock, and see investing in his projects as an honor. In the cult of personality that surrounds Mr. Musk in China, tech leaders are proud to be members.

So it comes as no surprise to them that China’s most valuable company by market capitalization, the social-networking and games juggernaut Tencent Holdings, invested $1.8 billion in Mr. Musk’s electric-car maker, Tesla.

“He’s not an ordinary genius: There are less than 10 people alive who can do what he does and think what he thinks. He is most likely the next Thomas Edison or Jeff Bezos in this generation,” says Joe Chen, chief executive of social-networking and financial-technology company Renren.

Zeng Liqing, a Tencent co-founder and angel investor, says he has built a large position in Tesla stock in the past few years. He spent over $150,000 for a deep-blue Tesla Model S with almost every accessory on offer.

He invested in Hyperloop One—a venture that uses a technology conceptualized by Mr. Musk: a levitating pod inside a tube to zip people and cargo between cities at near-sonic speeds.

When The Wall Street Journal broke the news this week about Mr. Musk launching Neuralink, a startup that aims to connect brains with computers, Mr. Zeng kicked himself. He has had a similar idea for years but only talked about it. With Mr. Musk getting a jump, “now I need to find a channel to invest in this project,” says Mr. Zeng, who retired from Tencent in 2007.

The adulation seems paradoxical for an industry whose success up to this point has come largely from imitation—building the Google of China, the YouTube of China and the Facebook of China. Firewalls, regulations and other barriers kept foreigners from penetrating the Chinese market.

Tencent’s first popular product, instant messenger QQ, was a copycat of Israel’s ICQ. QQ was initially named QICQ. In many cases, these Chinese imitators made notable improvements on the originals.

But market forces are laying bare their innovation deficit and make Mr. Musk’s boldness compelling. Growth in online users is slowing, and smartphone penetration is already high. Many tech businesses have to work harder to survive.

True innovation, not just incremental tweaks in efficiency, is needed for those who want to leave a mark on the world. Pony Ma, Tencent’s co-founder and CEO, said at a press conference in March that the No. 1 thing that keeps him up at night is being left behind technologically.

Tencent’s investment in Tesla is passive, so it doesn’t come with a board seat. Neither company is saying anything about helping each other in technology. (Asked to comment for this column, Tencent didn’t respond and Tesla declined.) Tencent is already invested in several new-energy vehicle ventures.

By taking a stake in Tesla, Tencent is signaling to the global tech community its eagerness to invest in cutting-edge technologies, people close to the company say. “The signal is, ‘Come to us if you’ve got an innovative idea,’ ” a person close to Tencent says.

Besides, that person says, “Pony is known to have a soft spot for geeks.”

Chinese have been obsessed with foreign tech leaders for decades. Bill Gates was treated like a rock star when he visited China in the 1990s and still draws crowds at conferences.

Such admiration is rooted in the Chinese education system’s utilitarian approach to knowledge. Scientists and engineers are considered more useful to society than writers and artists. Scientists and engineers who can make money? They’re the greatest.

Lei Jun, co-founder and chief executive of smartphone maker Xiaomi, idolized Apple co-founder Steve Jobs and adopted his signature black turtlenecks and bluejeans at product launches.

After meeting with Mr. Musk in Silicon Valley in 2014, Mr. Lei gushed on social media: “Compared with Elon Musk, we’re doing what everybody else can do. He’s doing what nobody can think of.” Mr. Lei was one of the earliest Tesla owners in China.
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Reddit user "electricmusk" who was first to report notes from the non-public investor call posted some new information.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-some suppliers (there are hundreds - this set is less than 5) are experiencing 50% price reductions on similar parts from S to 3

-the smallest battery might be below 50kwh still hitting 215 mile range [in my opinion, this would be massive for margins, positive for TSLA holders, but I am skeptical]

I don't believe that Tesla is going to sell M3's with packs that are less than 60 kWh. Elon's goal is to make compelling EV's, not to squeeze every dollar of margin out of each car.

And the maximum amount of money that would save them if they sold cars with 50 kWh packs would be $1,250. Which is not IMO massive margins.

-a different supplier indicated their model 3 parts have been shipping 10 units/week, and will ramp to 100 units/week in April, 1000 units/week in June, and 5000/week in Sept

-Model 3 may be farther along than people give them credit
and Model Y is more like early 2020 - I was under impression it was early 2019 - will be very curious regarding the "next week" comment Elon Musk to reportedly share more info about the Tesla Model Y ‘next week’

anecdotally, I spoke with the manager of a car dealership who told me "the world will never go electric" a year ago, and this week just said "you're right, the world is going electric"

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Notes • r/teslamotors


The early timing speculation matches what ny very reliable source said. The question I had was September options or January 2018 LEAPS? Since the price difference is minimal I going with J18's.
 
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I expect.
Remain.

I was aware of that quote. If you think that's a particularly strong counterargument so be it, but negotiating the fifth gigafactory is less interesting than the first, etc. and his interests will diverge. I hope there's at least a few people here that see your need to dismissively deny the possibility with weak evidence as insecure fanboyism.

Moving this to the "General Discussion" thread.
Master Plan Part Deux calls not just for completion of Model 3, but Tesla Semi, Model Y, Tesla Pickup, Tesla Minibus, Tesla Network, Solar Roofs and TE storage products, all to achieve the mission of transforming the world's energy and transportation system from carbon-based to primarily solar, sustainable energy. From Master Plan Part Deux:

The point of all this was, and remains, accelerating the advent of sustainable energy, so that we can imagine far into the future and life is still good. That's what "sustainable" means. It's not some silly, hippy thing -- it matters for everyone. Master Plan, Part Deux
In addition to developing all of these new products, Elon has made it clear that "what really matters to accelerate a sustainable future is being able to scale up production volume as quickly as possible. That is why Tesla engineering has transitioned to focus heavily on designing the machine that makes the machine -- turning the factory itself into a product."

So it is not enough to introduce the transportation, solar and storage products -- it is necessary to develop the production technology and production capacity to make them at a very fast pace to rapidly transform the world from carbon to clean energy. The focus on production technology -- the machine that builds the machine -- has been a critical focus of Elon, especially in the past year.

Implementing MP Part 2 -- Tesla Semi, Pickup, Minibus, Model Y, Tesla Network, Solar Roof and TE storage products, plus developing the multiple GFs and the "machine that builds the machine" to produce them -- is enough to keep Elon's interest for a long time to come.

So in the context of Elon's overall mission of saving the planet through Tesla and MP 2, and creating a backup plan (SpaceX/Mars) just in case, his statement that he expects to "remain with Tesla essentially forever" makes perfect sense. 4 New Must-Read Quotes From Tesla, Inc. CEO Elon Musk -- The Motley Fool It is the notion that he would back away from Tesla after the Model 3 is up and running that is nonsensical.
 
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Yeah, looked at that, thought there was a story to go with it. Nope. Nothing more. Just a one liner.

It was actually discussed a little more on his YouTube Q&A yesterday. I recall that he either believes or heard that Tesla plans to make test drives available to reservation holders and have display models in the stores before opening orders on the car to the public.

Link: Model 3 Owners Club Live Stream March 30 2017 1PM EST
 
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It was actually discussed a little more on his YouTube Q&A yesterday. I recall that he either believes or heard that Tesla plans to make test drives available to reservation holders and have display models in the stores before opening orders on the car to the public.

Link: Model 3 Owners Club Live Stream March 30 2017 1PM EST
I appreciate his enthusiasm. I temper that with realization that some of the information shared there is assumption. Still, it's interesting to see what he thinks.
 
I appreciate his enthusiasm. I temper that with realization that some of the information shared there is assumption. Still, it's interesting to see what he thinks.

While I agree that some of the information is speculation, his sources provided information months ago that stated lower optioned Model 3 would be produced first. He seems to have some pretty reliable sources.
 
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NETRALNEWS.COM - Elon Musk’s futuristic ventures and risk-taking often draw mixed receptions in the U.S. In China, tech-industry leaders and investors hail him as a genius and visionary worth cheering on.

Chinese have been obsessed with foreign tech leaders for decades. Bill Gates was treated like a rock star when he visited China in the 1990s and still draws crowds at conferences.

Such admiration is rooted in the Chinese education system’s utilitarian approach to knowledge. Scientists and engineers are considered more useful to society than writers and artists. Scientists and engineers who can make money? They’re the greatest.
Oh, sure - that's all well and good. But how are they at football, NASCAR and dirt-bike racing?
 
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