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Interesting piece

Tesla’s new ‘Advanced Automation’ group will drop all other clients to focus on Model 3 production

"
Now we learn via local news outlet Südwestrundfunk (German) that Tesla is ending all relationships between ‘Tesla Advanced Automation Germany’ and its outside clients. The head of the company’s workers’ council even said that they are canceling existing orders.

The reason given for the sudden change is to focus on the production of the Model 3 – something Grohmann Engineering has been involved in even before its acquisition by Tesla.
"

I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a "short thesis" this week about turmoil and a worker's crisis that's going on, which will undoubtedly affect Model 3 production and will bankrupt Tesla.

Soon after, $TSLA will report Q1 earnings blow out and we'll be on our way to $400 :)
 
Interesting piece

Tesla’s new ‘Advanced Automation’ group will drop all other clients to focus on Model 3 production

"
Now we learn via local news outlet Südwestrundfunk (German) that Tesla is ending all relationships between ‘Tesla Advanced Automation Germany’ and its outside clients. The head of the company’s workers’ council even said that they are canceling existing orders.

The reason given for the sudden change is to focus on the production of the Model 3 – something Grohmann Engineering has been involved in even before its acquisition by Tesla.
"

Here is the translated article:

Google Translate

The contracts with other clients haven't been cancelled, they're just in talks to end them. I take this as meaning that Tesla will complete the current work but cancel ongoing contracts. This is what they said from the start. The existing union is saying that this is causing concern about job security and that everyone deserves more money. Of course a union trying to attract new members is going to say these things.
 
Interesting piece

Tesla’s new ‘Advanced Automation’ group will drop all other clients to focus on Model 3 production

"
Now we learn via local news outlet Südwestrundfunk (German) that Tesla is ending all relationships between ‘Tesla Advanced Automation Germany’ and its outside clients. The head of the company’s workers’ council even said that they are canceling existing orders.

The reason given for the sudden change is to focus on the production of the Model 3 – something Grohmann Engineering has been involved in even before its acquisition by Tesla.
"

Seemed inevitable, although sooner than I would have expected.
 
Did you account for the presence of PPAs? Some of the revenue may be deferred. :-/

Probably a lot of the issue is, as you have already noted, that they were spending on salaries, utility costs, etc. for a large battery business but have only really produced a few sales so far. One of those annoying artifacts of failure to properly distinguish between fixed and variable costs which bedevils every accounting system.

Those PPAs are going to look much better on the books this year than in the past with the GAAP changes. Solar City is going to become a huge asset rather than a percieved liability.
 
I am a bit miffed about all this discussion around potential profitability in this quarter. Didn't Elon or Jason say that Q1 & Q2 will not be profitable because of the expenses associated with the 3 ramp up. I'd like to see a positive quarter as much as the next uber bull on these forums, but this is a bit too much to be expecting going into this Q.
 
I am a bit miffed about all this discussion around potential profitability in this quarter. Didn't Elon or Jason say that Q1 & Q2 will not be profitable because of the expenses associated with the 3 ramp up. I'd like to see a positive quarter as much as the next uber bull on these forums, but this is a bit too much to be expecting going into this Q.
Yes agree. If they wanted to mint money, they would stop now with just MS and MX. But companies don't grow that way and so any and all revenues are likely directed to growth with M3 as well as TE and solar roof (where are you solar roof?)...
 
Going to post this here, despite my trepidation - My little investment group pushing my ass where I don't like to take it--:(

Caveat Emptor
The following is under my own investment context which by definition cannot match anyone else's-- so throw it away or integrate to your own, but it's not meant in any way to assign applicability to anyone else-

My investment philosophy , in short groks with the company goals over decades- so nothing with this reflects ANYTHING short term- but forms against the long tuning frequency, spanning 3-10 years hence.

I use layers with Core layer as hold for years,
and 2 'trade-layers' -TSLA cycles and -Macro cycles.
(2 additional layers are outside the market- i.e. income producing real-estate etc.)

The long Core dilemma, seeding the change-
Tesla is intering a hugely expansive phase (as we all know) -
But my macro layer is dissonant, showing a largely increasing risk (again this is over next several years).
[Note: I use harmonic layers to guide my decisions...]

My solution to this cross-layer contango has been to liquidate a portion of external market layer to more than double my Core TSLA layer (this as you can imagine requires months of implementation- so again there's nothing short-term here)

Core stock layer is now 2.5 times previous- this was done at points of TSLA from $160-$260 raising my basis from well under $100 (I had large positions starting $30) to current sub $150
The trade layers now are very thin and will be limited to cash and few opportunistic LEAPS. (Core is 90%+ of stock holdings)

IMO not a good time to be under-invested in TSLA (hence very large Core add from outside market layers); and concurrently not a good macro risk time to be leverage heavily. All holdings are structured to ride through a 5 year outlook of higher macro risk.
[I've posted in the macro thread some thoughts in that regard for those interested. #887]

Note again: This has been my own life solution to this. To each his own-
 
The auditors would have no way of knowing the value of the software to your company. The transaction within Eron would be documented with a contract and cash movement. That is all they would be looking for.

It is more curious that your former company would participate in this deal. You old company would book and depreciate unused software.
You didn't finish reading my post did you? I said we booked the net revenue of $2M. We didn't depreciate anything.
 
Gaack. Have you any idea what happened at your end? I'm thinking your side was in danger of implicating itself in showing you purchased $9mm of items you didn't buy....
During the internet bubble we had several "mutual purchase" transactions and we always booked only the net revenue. The other questionable practice during that period was making a "strategic investment " in a startup that was purchasing our software. Legal, but in reality we were supplying them with capital they were using to buy our product.

A bigger picture issue and one reason the bubble burst so dramatically is that almost all of the companies were feeding from the same trough. Our customers were new companies funded initially by venture capital and then the public markets or telcos using debt financing to build internet backbones. When the funding dried up in 2000-2001 everybody's buyers disappeared.
 
I think 4th quarter TE figures include the 80 MWh installation for SCE at Mira Loma . It was not commissioned by SCE until mid-January but it appears Tesla met the revenue recognition criteria, and the period between late December and mid-January was for SCE's start-up testing. The SH letter stated: "98 MWh of energy storage deployed in Q4."
How do you reconcile this with these two points:
1. Mira Loma used Powerpack 2, that use new 2170 cells from Gigafactory.
Tesla quietly brings online its massive – biggest in the world – 80 MWh Powerpack station with Southern California Edison
We are talking here about a massive project with 400 of Tesla’s new Powerpack 2, which are literally equal to more than 2 of Tesla’s first generation Powerpack
2. Cell production didn't start in GF until Jan 4th.
Battery Cell Production Begins at the Gigafactory
Production of 2170 cells for qualification started in December and today, production begins on cells that will be used in Tesla’s Powerwall 2 and Powerpack 2 energy products.
 
How do you reconcile this with these two points:
1. Mira Loma used Powerpack 2, that use new 2170 cells from Gigafactory.
Tesla quietly brings online its massive – biggest in the world – 80 MWh Powerpack station with Southern California Edison

2. Cell production didn't start in GF until Jan 4th.
Battery Cell Production Begins at the Gigafactory
Who says that last year Powerpack 2 needed 2170 cells made at the Gigafactory? Certainly not the Electrek article you highlighted.
You seem to be conflating 'packed at Gigafactory' with 'made at Gigafactory'
 


The data being provided by Model3Tracker.info which gave us early clues that Model 3 reservation holders would rather wait for AWD also allows us to see the final pricing for the car based on mock configurations. The pricing options in the tool are best estimates based on historic Model S and X pricing, rolled together with the few facts we know about Model 3 from Elon’s Tweets.


I dont think this has been mentioned here but a very interesting bit of data gathered from Tesla3tracker.info as to buyers intent and amounts they have budgeted. I would guess that this data set is skewed a bit to the more fanatical but it definitely points to a higher average selling price then what Elon eluded to:

Here's what Tesla Model 3 buyers are willing to spend by country

Probably not statistically relevant and it is clearly the more informed buyers that are using this site, but still some nice info on where peoples heads are at.
Part of the difference is because Elon knows that the pricing of the major options is going to be less than "historic Model S and X pricing".
 
  • Informative
Reactions: neroden
It will be interesting to watch how much difference this makes. My bet is zero, for at least four to ten years, requires long term planning:
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016...s-supercharge-renewable-energy-study-suggests

Analysts have long argued that nations aiming to use wind and solar power to curb emissions from fossil fuel burning would first have to invest heavily in new technologies to store electricity produced by these intermittent sources—after all, the sun isn’t always shining and the wind isn’t always blowing. But a study out today suggests that the United States could, at least in theory, use new high-voltage power lines to move renewable power across the nation, and essentially eliminate the need to add new storage capacity.

This improved national grid, based on existing technologies, could enable utilities to cut power-sector carbon dioxide emissions 80% from 1990 levels by 2030 without boosting power prices, researchers report today in Nature Climate Change.
<snip>
<snip>
The bigger hurdle to realizing the study’s vision of a national grid, however, may be persuading policymakers, utilities investors, and landowners that it’s a good idea, says Susan Tierney, a former U.S. assistant secretary of energy under President Clinton who’s currently an energy consultant at the Analysis Group in Boston. “The problem is not rooted in technology, but rather in the way that the U.S. power system is organized legally, politically, economically, and culturally,” she says. Utilities and politicians are sometimes loath to depend on distant power producers, for example, and communities often fight the construction of large power lines.

Koomey notes that the researchers aren’t necessarily advocating a totally storage-free, national system or trying to bash storage technology. “They’re just saying, ‘Let’s just explore a system without storage and see if it’s possible.'” The answer, he says, is that it’s more possible than many people might think.
 
How do you reconcile this with these two points:
1. Mira Loma used Powerpack 2, that use new 2170 cells from Gigafactory.

@mmd We don't have to since one of those isn't accurate. It seemed to me that it was common knowledge that they started making the Powerpack 2s with 2170s that were imported from foreign Panasonic factories, not from the Gigafactory, before the Gigafactory started producing cells. (However, they were put into the packs at the Gigafactory.)
 
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