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Another nice illustration of the difference is by the "distance of explosions from my crotch graph" by The Oatmeal (What it's like to own a Tesla Model S - A cartoonist's review of his magical space car - The Oatmeal):
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Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Congrats Elon, well executed.
Looking forward to an encore with Model 3.
Looking forward to an encore with Model 3.
Welcome back. Many have missed you and your 'eight ball'
3Victoria
Active Member
The broader market is just starting to wake up to Tesla's potential. A few months after Apple introduced the iPhone in 2007, people marveled that its share price surpassed IBM and Intel, but most had no inkling what was in store despite the groundbreaking technology that was staring them in the face. It still took several years before the Apple SP really started to multiply (the Great Recession didn't help).
IMO what we are seeing now is just the beginning. For my initial shares bought in 2012 at $31.xx, today we hit 10X for the first time. In a few years, it would not surprise me at all to see another 10-20X for these shares plus the shares bought in 2016.
Tesla already has all the pieces in place to make that happen. It is literally staring the market in the face in the same way that the iPhone did. It will take time for the market to soak it all in -- but it is nice to see a little bit of it finally happening this year.
IMO what we are seeing now is just the beginning. For my initial shares bought in 2012 at $31.xx, today we hit 10X for the first time. In a few years, it would not surprise me at all to see another 10-20X for these shares plus the shares bought in 2016.
Tesla already has all the pieces in place to make that happen. It is literally staring the market in the face in the same way that the iPhone did. It will take time for the market to soak it all in -- but it is nice to see a little bit of it finally happening this year.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Thanks, but sadly not back. My balls are deployed in two other projects. Taking up most of my time in the past year. Just thought what's happening now deserves a mention as there's a definite change in perception. Like that april when everyone realize that Model S mass manufacturing is real and the order book did not decrease after 5000 deliveries.
Ok. This is becoming like old home week with 'lov' and CAlien posting.
If Sleephead and CapOpressor start posting I may actually have to go 'all in'
If Sleephead and CapOpressor start posting I may actually have to go 'all in'
mmd
Active Member
So what is the Piper Jaffray analyst missing that he is also seeing increased losses, but some forum posters are seeing GAAP profits? Is Tesla starting some creative accounting? Like, dissolve the SCTY unit to reduce Opex?
I wonder, how that's going to be useful for long term success.
Piper Jaffray Upgrades Tesla Motors (TSLA) to Overweight, Slashes EPS Estimates, Asks Clients To Employ Creative Valuation Methods
I wonder, how that's going to be useful for long term success.
Piper Jaffray Upgrades Tesla Motors (TSLA) to Overweight, Slashes EPS Estimates, Asks Clients To Employ Creative Valuation Methods
jhm
Well-Known Member
Closing market cap (per Nasdaq)
Tesla $50.984B
GM $50.956B
Next up
Honda $51.65B
BMW $56.73B (per Yahoo)
Tesla $50.984B
GM $50.956B
Next up
Honda $51.65B
BMW $56.73B (per Yahoo)
jhm
Well-Known Member
Congrats!
I'm looking forward to my ten-bagger at $530. Although I did give those shares away, but it is still a moral victory.
thank you for correcting my error @DaveT and @brian45011. and my sincere apologies for dragging you through combining financials.
i have to say i'm very surprised by the reply you got, mostly because the interest expense line would be only 4.4m for all of q4, after it ran at 26-69m the rest of the year. maybe something else is pushing interest expense down? that would be another question to ask ir - why was solarcity interest expense only 4.4m in q4?
with the benefit of your discovery, i have to say i am extremely impressed with the opex reduction. according to my model the q4 opex was around 75m less than the average of the prior 3 quarters. that's a lot of cost cutting while still maintaining strong revenues.
after normalizing out one time silevo gains and restructuring charges, then adding back in $50m of interest expense that i think might be there in future quarters, i still end up with a quarterly profit of $180m, and with the income from operations having improved by about $100m/qtr vs. q1-q3.
as i mentioned to @brian45011, i think this is even better simply because increases in operating income are quite a bit less murky than swinging entirely on the ncis. and if that interest expense ends up not being $50 million/quarter - which it hasn't been for 2 quarters - well then you're talking about a $230m in q4.
the bottom line is i stand by my original idea: solar city was bought for less than 5x forward gaap eps, it's going to give tesla a big kick towards gaap and non-gaap profitability, and i expect record gaap/non-gaap earnings and revenues at the next report.
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A huge thanks to @luvb2b , and to @neroden, @DaveT @surfside, for their great work on SCTY!
The exciting thing is that eventually their production will become public knowledge (a car every 30 seconds medium term), and if @luvb2b is correct about the cash flow (or even close) hang on for a wild ride towards the stratosphere
thank you for the kind words.
but, just to be clear, i have not modeled cash flows for tesla. i've only worked on gaap and non-gaap earnings.
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In $ x 1,000
Category..........YTD @ 12/31...YTD @9/30.....4Q16
Recourse Debt...42,162...........29,890...........12,272
Non-Recourse....74,527...........52,614...........21,913
Other Int/Amort...39,965.......... 29,258...........10,707
Other Expense....13,660.......... 54,143..........(40,493)
Total.................................................................. 4,399
Interest expense – recourse debt, increased by $14.0 million, or 50%, for the year ended December 31, 2016 as compared to the year ended December 31, 2015. This increase was primarily due to 19% increase in the average carrying balances of interest bearing recourse debt for the year ended December 31, 2016, as compared to the year ended December 31, 2015, as well as the increase in interest rates for the year ended December 31, 2016, as compared to the year ended December 31, 2015.
Interest expense – non-recourse debt increased by $44.6 million, or 149%, for the year ended December 31, 2016 as compared to the year ended December 31, 2015. This increase was primarily due to the 98% increase in the average carrying balances of interest bearing nonrecourse debt for the year ended December 31, 2016, as compared to the year ended December 31, 2015, as well as the increase in interest rates for the year ended December 31, 2016, as compared to the year ended December 31, 2015.
Other interest expense and amortization of debt discounts and fees, net, increased by $6.1 million, or 18%, for the year ended December 31, 2016 as compared to the year ended December 31, 2015. This increase was primarily due to the higher average balances of debt discounts and issuance costs related to our debt for the year ended December 31, 2016, as compared to the year ended December 31, 2015.
Other expense, net, decreased by $12.1 million, or 47%, for the year ended December 31, 2016 as compared to the year ended December 31, 2015. This decrease was mainly due to the $3.0 million loss from the changes in the fair value of our interest rate swaps in 2016 as compared to the $11.6 million loss from the changes in the fair value of our interest rate swaps in 2015. We account for our interest rate swaps as non-hedging derivatives. Additionally, we incurred $2.4 million loss from settlement of a matter and the $5.3 million increase in accretion on the contingent consideration related to the Silevo acquisition in 2015.
For 1Q16: "Other expense, net, increased by $35.0 million, or 1,664%, for the three months ended March 31, 2016, as compared to the three months ended March 31, 2015. This increase was mainly due to the $32.0 million change in fair value of fixed-for-floating interest rate swaps entered into, as required by our lenders, to reduce the potential impact of changes in interest rates on certain variable rate debt. We account for interest rate swaps as non-hedging derivatives."
For 2Q16: "Other expense, net, increased by $16.3 million, or 589%, for the three months ended June 30, 2016, as compared to the three months ended June 30, 2015. This increase was mainly due to the $19.1 million change in fair value of fixed-for-floating interest rate swaps entered into, as required by our lenders, to reduce the potential impact of changes in interest rates on certain variable rate debt. We account for interest rate swaps as non-hedging derivatives"
The first three categories of interest expense are relatively stable quarter to quarter, growing modestly as the debt increases. It's the swaps in "Other Expense" that causes the variability. Essentially, 4Q16 reversed most of what was shown for the first two quarters of the year.
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Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
While I strongly opposed the merger with SCTY and my stance on it was quite clear, it is against my interest to bash the deal.
I will only say that Elon should use this euphoric time to unwind some of the *sugar* floating in it so that certified accountants are not afraid to touch it.
At least remove the part where each entity can owner each other, which is where I believe all the *sugar* are buried. Imagine if the profit generating solar panel owns the derivative of the contract for electricity generation of your neighbor's roof. That's what floated to my mind when I looked into it.
My projection is for recession to hit in 3 years. When recession hit, it's *sugar* like this that will come to front and center.
BUt if tesla the car company manages to grow so much bigger than SCTY's asset, of course all these worries will just be moot.
And just like that, I need to get back to meeting my Wedbesday deadline.
GBleck
Member
Watching the video a second time I noticed the timing of his battery will light my junk on fire interjection may have been deliberately timed. He started yelling over the others as they where about to go down the path of discussing the non car part of tesla's business. Totally derailed the conversation before it could mention battery storage or solar.
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