dirtyofries
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Notice the author? It's our buddy E.W. Niedermeyer.
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I doubt we would disagree on actual sales in any country because we both obviously see the data. Without doubt there is a substantial market for Model S and X in:
I don't think that way I borrow money at a lower rate and make money at a higher rate my borrowing cost is approximately 4% at one Brokerage and close to 7% at another Brokerage but overall in the last 4 months I've made anywhere from 45 to 50% return on borrowed money so all in all it's worth the stress
And if I'm right then I'll make 200 to 300% returns on borrowed money over the next several months to years so paying 4 to 7 or even 8% interest to make those returns makes sense to me
Now I'm not recommending or advocating debt. Most people don't like debt and I totally understand and agree
However I personally differentiate between good and bad debt and my personal stance is to amplify my returns with borrowed money. While I don't have peace of mind like someone with zero debt, I'm far better off financially with my personal approach
i think m3 guidance is going to be fine, based all we've seen to date.
there's one thing you left out: what if... what if they could guide to positive gaap earnings for q2 as well? that will change the game completely imo.
my modeling indicates that with the levers they have in autopilot revenue recognition and timing of zev credit sales, and with the tailwind of solarcity's nci's, they could report gaap profitability this quarter and guide to even higher profits the next quarter... in the midst of the model 3 capex ramp. that would get the shorts undies' all in a big ole bunch!
plus guiding to 2 quarters of straight profits - which we've never seen - will force the possibility of 4 quarters of consecutive profitability. and then the big dogs that follow the s&p 500 will start coming out to play.
I already have more options than I care to carry so it makes sense for me to borrow money on margin for my shares out rightif you're paying 7% on margined shares it's costing you $21/yr to carry those shares.
you could buy a deep in the money 200-220 jan 18 call that would have $5 in time premium and save a lot of carry i would venture.
Brian- I wonder if they could construct a composite policy, that uses a national independent underwriter of the liability portion of the coverage... The national underwriter could then channel the coverage to the appropriate state regs where the car is registered
I already have more options than I care to carry so it makes sense for me to borrow money on margin for my shares out right
I have not exactly calculated but as of now I believe approximately 8 to 9% of my total portfolio is in long-term Tesla calls and I do not think it is prudent for me to increase my exposure to call options anymore
As tesla stock price appreciates rapidly the relative percentage off my portfolio and call options also increases disproportionately not that I mind it one bit but still it makes it much more riskier
According to Height Capital, the new deadline for investors to watch is April 28. April 28 represents the deadline for the government to pass a new funding bill, and Height analyst Andrew Parmentier believes President Donald Trump and Congressional Republicans will make sure to have a plan in place by that time.
“We suspect Republican leaders know Democrats are trying to goad them into a forced fumble to demonstrate the height of incompetence: failure to carry out the most basic of governmental functions — keeping the lights on — even with one-party control of the Executive and Legislative Branches,” Parmentier explained.
He believes Trump’s aversion to being viewed as a failure means the likelihood of an actual shutdown on April 28 is only around 15 percent.
Have you read the research note by Adam Jonas? The valuation of $300 was in the mindset of not achieving 500,000k by 2023. Imagine if they hit that number in 2019 what would that mean? Way more than $300...
a long dated deep in the money option (1) costs less than a share, (2) costs less to carry than a share at your margin rate, and (3) gives you the same upside as that share, with (4) less risk.
and you would rather borrow money to own shares? that sounds economically irrational.
Wrong. You are just burying your assumptions in complexity you don't understand and calling it risk reduction. But hey remember 2009? And those were professionals.
Regarding my prior thoughts, Congress just went on vacation for two weeks, and there is still no coherent and complete evidence of a plan for a budget, or sufficient support to raise the debt ceiling.
The date everyone should be paying attention to is April 28th.
After Passing Debt Ceiling Deadline, What Are The Odds Of A Government Shutdown?
Anyone honestly think it's a coincidence Trump decided to try and thrust his "muscles" against North Korea today in a move that could have unpredictable consequences?
Very worried about what is going to happen when Iran, Syria, Russia, and/or one of Russia's "satellite countries" decides to make good on their promise to retaliate.
I don't think Trump has any aversion to being viewed as a failure. His approval rating is already at an unprecedented low. If the "Government can't keep the lights on" for an extended time, Trump will do the same thing he does when discussing Syria, and the debt - blame it on Obama, and not comment any further.
I wonder how the CIS (Commonwealth of Independant States) will affect how things play out.
Everything from cobalt ...
If they are not profitable, but substantially closer than the market expects, and SCTY contributes profits for Q1, with expectations of SCTY contributing profits for every quarter through the M3 ramp don't you think thatt would trigger an SP bump?Solarcity will contribute profits every quarter for this year (and probably growing profits), I think. But overall Tesla will have a loss... until Model 3 reaches a decent run rate in probably Q4... maybe Q3. Who knows. I think it's too much to expect profitability while Model 3 is just getting off the ground. But I'd love to be surprised. And I haven't dived into Q4 Tesla financials enough to really know what I'm talking about.
Just replace enough of your shares with J19 $280's or $300's (currently about $46.00 each) to get control of the same number of shares as borrowing 50k. Zero worries about short term dips.Sorry that I wasn't clear, I meant margin. At the moment, I'm paying $100/month for 24k margin and it's been good to me for the last few months. I can up that to 30k now, and then again to 50k a few months from now.
The dilemma is, if I up my shares and it dips, that would suck for all the reasons mentioned. On the other hand, if I don't think it's great to increase my margin, then it shouldn't be a good idea to keep my current margin levels, because there's nothing special about my current margin levels at all.
Exactly!If you show me a tsla example with stock + margin stock vs cash + deep in the money options that shows margin is a better idea i will be happy to revisit my understanding of this topic.
2009 they were writing leveraged options. we are talking about buying options using cash not loans. blowup risk is zero.
However, if he has the next GFs lined up, he may be thinking exactly what you are inferring and once again pulling everything forward.
Charlie Anderson Q4-2016 about 62 minutes said:You talked about Gigafactories, 3, 4 and possibly 5. It sounds like you're pretty covered with Gigafactory 1 in terms of the 1 million vehicles, but I wonder if you could just speak to the strategy and thinking and timing there. And then also Panasonic would be your partner on those as well. Thanks
Ken, don't you believe that "quite exciting" for 2 or 3 Gigafactories means something other than a cap raise. IMO the way that would be quite exciting, is by going right to the edge.Elon Musk Q4-2016 about 63 minutes said:I think we'll reserve some dry powder for announcements later this year. This is surely more than enough news for today. But I think those announcements will be really quite exciting later this year.
but i like being economically irrational!a long dated deep in the money option (1) costs less than a share, (2) costs less to carry than a share at your margin rate, and (3) gives you the same upside as that share, with (4) less risk.
and you would rather borrow money to own shares? that sounds economically irrational.
Yep, sure do Mitch.Ken, don't you believe that "quite exciting" for 2 or 3 Gigafactories means something other than a cap raise. That would be quite exciting, as in being on the edge.
i must admit you guys are way too sophisticated for me. i am a rather simple minded investor who just does not understand the complexities of high finance. if i see a stock go up i buy it. if a stock goes down i sell it. and since my personal means are quite limited i end up using a bit of leverage. i do have a lot to learn and i appreciate you guys taking the time from your busy schedules to teach. Thanks!there's no complexity, it's a simple inequality. cost of carry for margin shares is > cost of carry (time premium) of deep in the money option.
If you show me a tsla example with stock + margin stock vs cash + deep in the money options that shows margin is a better idea i will be happy to revisit my understanding of this topic.
2009 they were writing leveraged options. we are talking about buying options using cash not loans. blowup risk is zero.
That's boilerplate; you don't need a guarantee or a liability to pay off a subsidiary's debt.Tesla appears to need all of its credit facility to fund its own expansion plans. Also:
"10.14 SolarCity. Notwithstanding anything to the contrary contained herein, (a) the Company and its Subsidiaries shall not guarantee or otherwise become directly liable for any Indebtedness of SolarCity and (b) the Company and its Subsidiaries shall not permit SolarCity to guarantee or otherwise become directly liable for the Indebtedness of the Company or its Subsidiaries."
EX-10.1
This question wasn't addressed to me since I absolutely don't do that, but I would never borrow more to invest into TSLA.To anyone with more than 100% into TSLA, at what point would you borrower more to invest into TSLA? I just realized that I have that option open to me.