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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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If the delivery numbers come today, at what time should we expect them?

The US is off today, so I wouldn't hold my breath... If they do announce today, I would expect their staff needs tally and confirm the latest updates from the global sales staff, so I wouldn't expect it sooner than 3-4 hours from now, given it's 5am on the West Coast right now.

It's a safer bet this will come before market open tomorrow, though.

Just an FYI. Last year, Q4 deliveries were announced at 12:00 EST on Saturday, 1/3. More recently, Q3 came out on Sunday, 10/2 around 2:30 EST. Q2 on Sunday, 7/3 around 2:30 EST. Q1 on Monday, 4/4 around 4:00 EST.
 
These 2 week "delays" (supercharger included & price increase) point to another change to the production line.

Why else would you delay price increases when demand is excessive?

My 'read' on this is that they are filling production spots worldwide through the SCharging change date of delivery by April 15.
Mid April we see some dramatic change that might Cause angst: bigger battery/faster charging pack/HUD or Osbourning: The 3 reveal
 
My 'read' on this is that they are filling proscription spots worldwide through the SCharging change date or delivery by April 15.
Mid April we see some dramatic change that might Cause angst: bigger battery/faster charging pack/HUD or Osbournibg: The 3 reveal

Indeed; I also think HUD because a bigger battery option (non-performance 100) should not impact production line (edit: I mean considering the lines already produce the P100)

Or the whole production line switches over to the 2170 batteries.
 
Off topic and into near space:
SpaceX ‏@SpaceX 20 minför 20 minuter sedan


Targeting return to flight from Vandenberg with the @IridiumComm NEXT launch on January 8. Update:
Great news, though not unexpected.

SpaceX had essentially telegraphed previously that the production of SOX between the liner and carbon overwrap on the COPVs due to a change in loadout procedures was the cause. This lets us know what they're going to do about it (revert to the old procedure until they can develop a better COPV that doesn't suffer from this problem), and more importantly confirms that we're RTFing this week as many suspected with the stackup and fueling of the IridiumNEXT birds last week.

Echostar23 is also currently sitting with an NET of Jan 15 from LC-39A, KSC. RTF, and then fire up a new pad in FL one week later, the fastest F9 launch turnaround, and then CRS-10 is also currently slated for 'late January'. Shaping up to be an exciting January for Elon.
 
My 'read' on this is that they are filling production spots worldwide through the SCharging change date of delivery by April 15.
Mid April we see some dramatic change that might Cause angst: bigger battery/faster charging pack/HUD or Osbourning: The 3 reveal.
They won't do that!


Even as skeptics predicted doom for the company, Musk emailed employees exhorting them to “produce every car possible” so that the company could “throw pie in the face of Tesla critics.” Eventually, he did that during the company’s third-quarter results, when Tesla turned in a small profit of $22 million after ballooning from $294 million in 2014 to $888 million in 2015.

While Tesla did announce record sales during the third quarter, it is unlikely that those numbers contributed to its profitability. Instead, analysts contend that the company’s sale of zero emission vehicle (or ZEV) credits, instituted by the California Air Resources Board (CARB), was the main reason. Based on filings, they calculated that the company sold $139 million worth of ZEV credits in the market and this inflated its earnings. For example, Jim Collins at The Street calculated an addition of 88 cents to Tesla's non-GAAP earnings due to the credits sale.

Tesla also performed an accounting sleight-of-hand to inch towards profitability. It began counting sale revenues inclusive of its resale price guarantees. (See also: Why Tesla Needs To Report Profits Today.) Musk is confident that the company will be able to repeat its profitability during the fourth quarter. But analysts are doubtful.



Read more: Will Tesla Make a Profit in 2017? (TSLA) | Investopedia Will Tesla Make a Profit in 2017?

If Elon actually said that he is confident (?) I think it's safe to assume that the Q4 numbers are at least close to positive, so I predict that they will be good.
 
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I wonder why nobody has cracked the obvious joke about "Elon time" yet: Tesla is late even for the increase of their UK prices ;-)
Ok, I show myself out...

On a more serious note: I don't see a problem with the delay of the price increase / ending free supercharging for life thingy: It is a brilliant demand lever that doesn't cost anything to pull and does not osborne any other product. Better yet: it also doesn't make anybody who just bought a car angry. The only downside I see is, that people could start to expect this kind of extension of deadlines in future cases and be upset if "end of December actually means end of December".
 
I wonder why nobody has cracked the obvious joke about "Elon time" yet: Tesla is late even for the increase of their UK prices ;-)
Ok, I show myself out...

On a more serious note: I don't see a problem with the delay of the price increase / ending free supercharging for life thingy: It is a brilliant demand lever that doesn't cost anything to pull and does not osborne any other product. Better yet: it also doesn't make anybody who just bought a car angry. The only downside I see is, that people could start to expect this kind of extension of deadlines in future cases and be upset if "end of December actually means end of December".

Well; I mean, delaying the change in UK pricing *does* potentially have an impact on the bottom line - TSLA is exposed to changes in the USD/GBP exchange rate.

But generally I agree.

I suspect its purely an act of goodwill. They announced this deadline, which drove 'off-the-hook' demand that Tesla was not able to keep up with by the end of December, and so they've extended the deadline so that customers who intended to beat the deadline but could not for reasons of Tesla being too busy to service them in a timely manner aren't alienated. Its a good thing.
 
I agree that 'Goodwill' is a consequence of the extension but I doubt it is the reason.

Orders for TM products are done online so unless their servers collapsed with overwhelming demand people should have been able to place their orders before December 31st if they were doing so to get 'unlimited supercharging'.

The extension to the Brits on the price increase, while costing TM a few bucks, could easily be seen as filling up production spaces of RHD vehicles that would fill up spots on a transport ship and save a few bucks on transportation costs.

Just one man's thoughts/theory
 
I agree that 'Goodwill' is a consequence of the extension but I doubt it is the reason.

Orders for TM products are done online so unless their servers collapsed with overwhelming demand people should have been able to place their orders before December 31st if they were doing so to get 'unlimited supercharging'.

The extension to the Brits on the price increase, while costing TM a few bucks, could easily be seen as filling up production spaces of RHD vehicles that would fill up spots on a transport ship and save a few bucks on transportation costs.

Just one man's thoughts/theory
You're not wrong about online orders.

The thing is, most people won't drop $70-150k on a car without seeing it in person and test driving one first.

If the Tesla stores couldn't keep up with demand for test drives, its very possible that there is people who want to buy but aren't willing to do so until they get a test drive.
 
A couple of thoughts:

1) I think its bullish that Tesla isn't releasing Q4 orders on a quiet day like today - if they release tomorrow on day when its "back to business" for everybody including the financial players, CNBC paparazzi, etc- what a way to start the year.. If the numbers weren't strong - they may try to "smuggle" them in today without much fan fare.

2) I think Tesla may be trying to pull some strong demand levers in the beg part of the first quarter to really boost order que - why? For the obvious reasons but also to potentially help strengthen the ability to increase their ABL or go to capital markets if they need to - having a large order base of MS and MX can only help....
 
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