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Costco mark up is 15% on all things sold that's their business strategy from day one. I thought this is a pretty common knowledge.
mmd
Active Member
Is there only one cell production line at Gigafactory 1? How will it achieve the said "Economies of scale" with just 1 line?
For comparison, Panasonic had 4 lines at some factories in Osaka, and at least 2 lines just for Tesla's cells. Interesting, no more capacity increase news since 2013. Two lines at Suminoe seems capable to produce 600 million cells a year.
Panasonic to increase its battery capacity
Back in March 2010, when the Suminoe plant started mass production, initial capacity was 10 million cells a month. I'm guessing, that's the initial rate of "mass production" in GF also, unless someone has better estimate or any word from the horse's mouth
Panasonic's New Lithium-Ion Battery Plant to Start Mass Production Next Month | Headquarters News | Panasonic Newsroom Global
For comparison, Panasonic had 4 lines at some factories in Osaka, and at least 2 lines just for Tesla's cells. Interesting, no more capacity increase news since 2013. Two lines at Suminoe seems capable to produce 600 million cells a year.
Panasonic to increase its battery capacity
Back in March 2010, when the Suminoe plant started mass production, initial capacity was 10 million cells a month. I'm guessing, that's the initial rate of "mass production" in GF also, unless someone has better estimate or any word from the horse's mouth
Panasonic's New Lithium-Ion Battery Plant to Start Mass Production Next Month | Headquarters News | Panasonic Newsroom Global
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Let's not forget much of the old world! While I love Autopilot and have high hopes for EAP and FSD, these are realistically designed for the larger roads of the new world. When you get into some of the old old cities and towns (Europe/Asia) true craziness will ensue. Still remember driving in Cadiz, Spain. Half the time I couldn't tell if I was on a sidewalk or a road...
dennis
Model S Plaid
It wasn't luck. Netflix CEO Reed Hastings saw how his company had disrupted Blockbuster et al and realized his postal based DVD model could be disrupted by new streaming entrants. So he decided to disrupt his own company. You may remember they didn't do it perfectly and the revenue and stock price suffered for a period of time but then recovered and eventually went ballistic.
Could this be some type of SCTY/TSLA merger analogy in the future?
dennis
Model S Plaid
Well Toyota committed to Panasonic for their late-to-market EV effort. Recently they moved the project to report directly to Mr. Toyoda so they are clearly putting a high priority on it. What are the chances that Mr. Toyoda, who shook hands with Mr. Musk for their investment, the NUMMI plant sale and the RAV4 deal, is outsourcing development of their long range BEV drive train to former partner Tesla? Mr. Toyoda knows they are behind and what better way is there to accelerate their efforts than to leverage the expertise of the company with the most experience in using Panasonic cells in BEV applications.
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I've easily contributed 10 miles of single lane bridge traversing but then There are a sugarload of those stupid things where I live. Maybe I should stage a Tesla drive through the Poconos to gather more single lane bridge data.
Regarding gas stations... Seems to me they'll make a hell of a lot more money with providing free charging.
First of all, they need a LOT of fast chargers. Typically here in Europe, on the motorways you get services with 10 pumps, the cars fill-up, pay then mostly drive off. Some then go to the parking, maybe 100 spots, average, then take a leak, grab some coffee, eat, whatever. But many don't do that, they just leave once they've re-filled.
Instead now you'll have all these cars typically having to hang around for 30 minutes to charge. For this you need charging in EVERY parking space, you need to remove as much the possibility that people have to wait. If they have to wait they won't come back in the future.
Then all these people will certainly go to pee, but then they'll likely buy some coffee, often eat, all this as a much higher %age than with ICE drivers. This is my personal experience while Supercharging.
Note though, that at the Superchargers next to Burger King or McDonalds, we don't spend anything, we just use the toilets (basically we don't eat sh*t like that). Likewise for the more up-market locations in Europe - for instance the Van Der Valk hotels in Holland, Belgium and Germany, we usually don't eat or drink, it's a bit too fancy for us with our three kids and two dogs - although we really appreciate the rest-rooms they have, very nice. What's a good compromise is the services in Germany with traditional food offerings, here we do often eat, take coffee, buy some stuff in the shops.
No doubt others will prefer the McDonalds or more up-market hotel chains, and they will spend money there, more often than ICErs.
First of all, they need a LOT of fast chargers. Typically here in Europe, on the motorways you get services with 10 pumps, the cars fill-up, pay then mostly drive off. Some then go to the parking, maybe 100 spots, average, then take a leak, grab some coffee, eat, whatever. But many don't do that, they just leave once they've re-filled.
Instead now you'll have all these cars typically having to hang around for 30 minutes to charge. For this you need charging in EVERY parking space, you need to remove as much the possibility that people have to wait. If they have to wait they won't come back in the future.
Then all these people will certainly go to pee, but then they'll likely buy some coffee, often eat, all this as a much higher %age than with ICE drivers. This is my personal experience while Supercharging.
Note though, that at the Superchargers next to Burger King or McDonalds, we don't spend anything, we just use the toilets (basically we don't eat sh*t like that). Likewise for the more up-market locations in Europe - for instance the Van Der Valk hotels in Holland, Belgium and Germany, we usually don't eat or drink, it's a bit too fancy for us with our three kids and two dogs - although we really appreciate the rest-rooms they have, very nice. What's a good compromise is the services in Germany with traditional food offerings, here we do often eat, take coffee, buy some stuff in the shops.
No doubt others will prefer the McDonalds or more up-market hotel chains, and they will spend money there, more often than ICErs.
I meant the luck was that many of the values and advantages from the postal model mapped well to the streaming model.
My guess is, that it originated from a quote of J.B. Straubel talking about 30% reduction in price per KWh expected from gigafactory and format changes,soon after going public with the gigafactory.
I think in the meantime Elon raised this to 40-50% better price/KWh.
STARR X
Member
I know my wife would love to have her Starbucks delivered to her.
STARR X
Member
My understanding is that phase one has at least two, maybe four cathode lines, with an equal number of anode lines (and an unknown number of winding and cell assembly lines, probably greater than one). Phase two should have twice that of phase one. So, sometime this year you should have 2-4 lines operational and sometime in 2018 you should have 6-12 lines operational. These are obviously very much improved lines designed for unprecedented volume, and they can't be directly compared to lines at other factories.Is there only one cell production line at Gigafactory 1? How will it achieve the said "Economies of scale" with just 1 line?
For comparison, Panasonic had 4 lines at some factories in Osaka, and at least 2 lines just for Tesla's cells. Interesting, no more capacity increase news since 2013. Two lines at Suminoe seems capable to produce 600 million cells a year.
Panasonic to increase its battery capacity
Back in March 2010, when the Suminoe plant started mass production, initial capacity was 10 million cells a month. I'm guessing, that's the initial rate of "mass production" in GF also, unless someone has better estimate or any word from the horse's mouth
Panasonic's New Lithium-Ion Battery Plant to Start Mass Production Next Month | Headquarters News | Panasonic Newsroom Global
I expect phase one to ramp up to around 65 million cells per month sometime in 2017 and phase two to ramp up to 130 million cells per month starting in 2017 and ending in 2018. A total of around 195 million cells per month at the end of 2018. Initial volume is anyones guess.
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Gerardf
Active Member
Hmm, might be a post for the 'Market Action" thread. (at least I hope that is what this news will result in
)
I don't think you can just count "number of lines", since not all lines will be created equal.Is there only one cell production line at Gigafactory 1? How will it achieve the said "Economies of scale" with just 1 line?
For comparison, Panasonic had 4 lines at some factories in Osaka, and at least 2 lines just for Tesla's cells. Interesting, no more capacity increase news since 2013. Two lines at Suminoe seems capable to produce 600 million cells a year.
Panasonic to increase its battery capacity
Back in March 2010, when the Suminoe plant started mass production, initial capacity was 10 million cells a month. I'm guessing, that's the initial rate of "mass production" in GF also, unless someone has better estimate or any word from the horse's mouth
Panasonic's New Lithium-Ion Battery Plant to Start Mass Production Next Month | Headquarters News | Panasonic Newsroom Global
Gerardf
Active Member
Was just typing up something similar, but almost 50% higher numbers.. (guess I used lower energy / cell and added TE cells
Anyway, just to put this in perspective. Assuming your numbers.. and even assuming 24/7 operation (will not happen)..
- 65M cells / month = 2,16M cells / day = 90k cells per hour = 25 cells per second !!
- 195M cells / month = 6,5M cells / day = 271k cells per hour = 75 cells per second !! (run rate end of 2018)
WOW ! Bullet speed indeed !!!
Remember all these cells have to be produced, but also get the initial charge and be aged and tested.
This needs lots of energy and storage space.
Just try to imagine.. Flabbergasted I think the word is.And than doubling that again as targeted in 2020.
Buddyroe
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