2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[dennis]

Elon has repeatedly said the demo LA to NY ride, during which no controls will be touched (i.e. Level 5), will take place in 4Q17. Let's assume for the purposes of our discussion that this is true. We have also been told repeatedly that FSD is the top priority, except for Model 3 which is almost here. I interpret the confidence in his words to mean that a large portion of the "edge cases" will have been solved by 4Q17. I don't think anyone here expects Tesla is just mastering the route from LA to NY just for this demo ride, right?

This tells me that, in at most six months, which is not so far away that forecasts would need to include high uncertainty/variability, the processing power, the sensors, the software etc. required for FSD will be at a point to take on the risk to demonstrate to the world that FSD is here.

I think it is significant that at the annual meeting for the first time Elon did not mention a timeframe when talking about the coast-to-coast autonomous drive. Maybe he is finally aware of the difficulty in reaching level 4/5 autonomy. From the transcript:

our goal remains being able to drive autonomously from a parking lot in California to a parking lot in New York without touching a control at any point along the way.

 

[Drax7]

Atonomous level 5 driving will be delayed for a long long time.
Mobileye is the leader and most likely will be the first to achieve an AI approximation.
Check Annon Shashua's lectures on u tube for some understanding.

 

[dakh]

Consider what happens if the septic leach field is under the lawn and the car drives across it and damages it instead of driving where it's supposed to. (Real issue, BTW, I have visited places where they had to warn drivers about this).

The thing is I can come up with stuff like this *all day long*. There's *so many of them*. Think of the ones I'm *not* coming up with. The corner cases for level 5 are *endless*.

With a much more controlled specification saying "We are making cars which can drive themselves under *these conditions*, but you have to drive if you're driving outside those conditions", you have something which can happen fairly quickly. This is why I like very specific tech like "automatic parallel parking" (no auto-parking in angle parking!) or "automatic perpendicular parking in marked spaces" (no auto-parking on grass fields or unmarked lots!)

Remember once there's enough of these "almost self driving cars" out there, there will be incentive for the driveway owner to install some kind of guidance system so visitors don't have to wake up too early and take over. I fully expect the systems/standards will emerge for AI aids at construction sites, manually controlled intersections etc.

 

[tander]

The differences between Level 3/4/5 are mostly dependent what the driver needs to do, and more relates to regulation I guess.

But "no controls touched" tells me Elon is confident the system can handle Level 4/5 when regulators allow it.

My understanding is they can pretty much do 4-5 now, especially as the system learns over the coming months, but they still will be limited by a) is it safer than a good driver b) have laws been updated for it c) are insurance companies ready for it?

Oh, Bertel got it wrong! Thank you very much, SwTslaGrl.

Though the Caixin source does not clarify regarding the ability of outside-China manufacturers to add New Energy Vehicle capacity in China. The "JV with a local" restriction may still be in place, which Tesla is probably still unwilling to do. Anyone have more detail?

Does this eliminate the possibility of not having a partner, I thought they were loosening up the rules not enchancing them. If this means that going in independently definitely off the table, I would assume joint deal is very close to or already inked, that Tencent investment might be a hint of thing to come.

 

[MP3Mike]

I think it is significant that at the annual meeting for the first time Elon did not mention a timeframe when talking about the coast-to-coast autonomous drive. Maybe he is finally aware of the difficulty in reaching level 4/5 autonomy.

But what was the question?

 

[zzziii]

 

[Starno]

People are getting interested this week....

 

[MXWing]

In theory, if 25% of short sellers covered independent of all other variables, does anyone know the magnitude of effect on share price?

 

[kenliles]

Tesla has opened the floodgates of Autopilot data gathering

'
At this point, Tesla has likely well over 50,000 vehicles on the roads gathering this data and depending on the production ramp up of the Model 3, it could potentially double that by the end of the year.
'
Every one sold to an actual customer at an actual profit

But of course
GM has a couple hundred;
and Waymo's got 500 in Phoenix (with hats)
Sold to nobody, at a loss on every one...
In Tesla's AP rear view cameras,
Objects Are Definitely Smaller Than They Appear

 

[dc_h]

Elon met with the Vice Premier of China who coincidentally has an automotive background of some sort. Was that meeting just to tell Elon they were not interested in having them build EVs in China? Oh Elon, I had you fly half way around the world to let you know that you can stay home! Elon is keeping the powder dry on future GFs because I think he wants to save it for when they arent announcing things like the first deliveries of Model 3s and the Tesla Semi/Supercharger v3 (theory I like the most) reveal.

Maybe the second reveal will be the new gigafactories?

 

[Rarity]

@kenliles -- I am enthusiastic about the data gathering (it is well worth the added HW2 hardware and cellular data expense), but given that it is opt-in, wouldn't that vehicle count be much less than 50,000?

 

[mrdoubleb]

Tesla has opened the floodgates of Autopilot data gathering

'
At this point, Tesla has likely well over 50,000 vehicles on the roads gathering this data and depending on the production ramp up of the Model 3, it could potentially double that by the end of the year.
'
Every one sold to an actual customer at an actual profit

But of course
GM has a couple hundred;
and Waymo's got 500 in Phoenix (with hats)
Sold to nobody, at a loss on every one...
In Tesla's AP rear view cameras,
Objects Are Definitely Smaller Than They Appear

Yeah... the screenshot in the article showed the owner's car sent ~2GB of data to Tesla. 2GB x 50000 cars... maybe we should be investing in companies that make hard drives. Or just open a 24/7 HDD store next to Tesla HQ.

 

[tander]

In theory, if 25% of short sellers covered independent of all other variables, does anyone know the magnitude of effect on share price?

All at the same time?

 

[kenliles]

@kenliles -- I am enthusiastic about the data gathering (it is well worth the added HW2 hardware and cellular data expense), but given that it is opt-in, wouldn't that vehicle count be much less than 50,000?

Yeah granted that's an estimate,
although opt in, when releasing AP 2, Tesla sent specific letters requesting owners to opt in (see below). I think it's a reasonable estimate most did, but it would be hard to argue it's not somewhere in the 10s of thousands and soon 100s of thousands

 

[MXWing]

All at the same time?

Let's say there were no additional buyers or sellers while the 25% covered. Trying to understand what SP might look like from upward movement of bid/ask based on this one event independent of other factors.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Let's say there were no additional buyers or sellers while the 25% covered. Trying to understand what SP might look like from upward movement of bid/ask based on this one event independent of other factors.

Essentially the question becomes how would the price move if the market is illiquid, and the only buyers are the shorts covering. So someone has to sell a share so the shorts can cover. If the shorts are desperate to cover then whoever sells will command a premium. If they're not, it should be a stalemate. So long as the shorts can cover their interest payments.

 

[MXWing]

Essentially the question becomes how would the price move if the market is illiquid, and the only buyers are the shorts covering. So someone has to sell a share so the shorts can cover. If the shorts are desperate to cover then whoever sells will command a premium. If they're not, it should be a stalemate. So long as the shorts can cover their interest payments.

Perhaps the experiment can not be as isolated as I was hoping it could be. Just trying to figure out if the short float was reduced by 25% in the near term, would SP be 450, 500, 550, etc.

I was hoping it would be an answerable question.

 

[TradingInvest]

@kenliles -- I am enthusiastic about the data gathering (it is well worth the added HW2 hardware and cellular data expense), but given that it is opt-in, wouldn't that vehicle count be much less than 50,000?

Most Tesla owners support the Tesla mission. And there are 8,000 new Tesla owners every month.

 

[Jayjs20]

Let's say there were no additional buyers or sellers while the 25% covered. Trying to understand what SP might look like from upward movement of bid/ask based on this one event independent of other factors.

This doesn't seem like a reasonable question. If no one was selling and lots of people were buying, the answer is an SP of infinity.

An increase in SP incentives people to sell. If people are restricted from selling, then you can't buy.

 

[RobStark]

Honda Aims for a Fully Self-Driving Vehicle by 2025