Runarbt
Active Member
Does anyone but tesla use 18650 cells for cars? I was under the impression everyone else uses pouch cells?
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Does anyone but tesla use 18650 cells for cars? I was under the impression everyone else uses pouch cells?
Reciprocity
Active Member
Tesla Sees Unusually Large Options Volume (TSLA)
"insider Jeffrey B. Straubel sold 106,000 shares of the stock in a transaction that occurred on Monday, May 8th. The shares were sold at an average price of $307.44, for a total transaction of $32,588,640.00."
Insider sales are not often very meaningful, but they can be.
He must getting ready to buy a lot of Model 3's, I hope?
Maybe he just wants his very own supermodel? I know I would in his position.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Looks are overrated. And I'm pretty sure he's married.
Not that there's anything wrong with not being married, or divorced, and not that this matters to the company's valuation.
I have shocking news for you ! My 2014 Tesla Model S already has a microphone built in!
Yes, its inside the cabin, the one used for voice commands and bluetooth phone functionality.
If the human driver can hear the whistle of the train, so can that microphone.
Case closed, we can move on to the software enhancements needed.
DurandalAI
Member
What your coworker doesn't know is that I bet some of those "fake" reservations will end up being kept by the buyers once they've driven the car!!
DurandalAI
Member
A good example of this which we can already see is people who are living in what we would call shacks, using cell phones, bypassing the rollout of copper POTS phones that we went through over here. They go to the local charging business who has solar panels and batteries, they pay a small fee, charge their phone, then go about their business. For those with a bit more money, they have their own solar panel at home to charge their phone and maybe power a light or two. Power distribution is a lot more distributed than it is centralized because there's not really much of an option than to be "off-grid." These developing countries can bypass the fossil fuel mistakes that we had to endure.
Tesla Sees Unusually Large Options Volume (TSLA)
"insider Jeffrey B. Straubel sold 106,000 shares of the stock in a transaction that occurred on Monday, May 8th. The shares were sold at an average price of $307.44, for a total transaction of $32,588,640.00."
Insider sales are not often very meaningful, but they can be.
He must getting ready to buy a lot of Model 3's, I hope?
Didn't he invest in some companies around that time? Could be he needed the capital to do so.
Yup all those childish attitudes got them no where and at SpaceX too. Silly culture. Let's throw in most of the Silicon Valley tech companies too with in house ping pong tables. What bunch of kids.
Your view is just like the bone yards of had been companies now dead or to be dead companies.
Sorry they make mistakes and you don't. That's life for most of us. If they let my aunt drive or asshole road rage "adult" drive that have no business on the road you better bet reasonably safe system will be legal. Or shell we wait for the grown up version fail safe perfect record from GM/F/BMW/MB?
DurandalAI
Member
Reciprocity
Active Member
I think what you are saying is that Results Matter. There definitely could be some risks but I think those risks abate as Tesla grows and matures and as they add more quality talent, managers and get big enough where no one is irreplaceable, aside from maybe Elon and JB. It is quite sobering to go from a startup where you are the only guy who knows how to do something to hundreds of engineers who all know more then you do. Tesla is now what 30,000 employees? The culture is definitely something that comes from the top down and Elon seems to want people to work very hard but also have fun. Tech companies seem to be getting hit with a lot of Sexist type issues. Other then the one lady who was recently fired, I have not seen that from Tesla or SpaceX. Youthful exuberance and cockiness or over confidence is only an issue if managers can direct that energy to showing results. It certainly good be an issue, but if the managers are good and delivering results, then I have no issues. I am pretty blown away by the results over the couple of years that I have followed Tesla and a bit longer for SpaceX.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
This is a fact that is incredibly under-appreciated by the market. 12,000 of which is from SCTY acquisition btw.
SeekingAlpha would never publish my article on this in the publicly available article section, because it's not "detailed fundamental analysis" (whatever that means), but I would highly encourage everyone to compare what Tesla has achieved with less than 20,000 employees to those of other manufacturers vs. revenue and extrapolate that keeping in mind alien dreadnought tech. The BYD comparison is eye-opening.
Well said. I am mystified by when people ask "when will the model S and X switch to 2170 cells?". I expect the answer is never. Panasonic would have never gone along with the GF concept if they were going to lose their market for their existing factories, unless (and this is unlikely) they wanted to switch anyway to 2170. I think the model S and X are not broken, so they will not be fixed. Or, the panasonic cells could be shunted to a powerpack product and consumed endlessly that way. I expect that the relationship between Tesla and Panasonic is "we will buy your output forever". After all, Tesla's driving mission is that there is an overarching supply shortage of batteries-- batteries are the solution to the transport and grid storage problems they are trying to solve. No way would they cut loose such a huge supply.
And if they did? If by some strange chance Panasonic was OK with Tesla going away, Panasonic sells their cells to another car company or stationary storage supplier? I sincerely hope not, since that is too close to teaching another company how to be Tesla. Way too much of Tesla's moat is built into the fact that they have the worlds best battery maker as a close partner.
Keep them as close as possible! Buy everything Panasonic makes.
T3slaTulips
Member
Are you assuming that Panasonic (Japan) is unable to retool their lines to start producing 21-70 cells? If 21-70 cells aren't superior to 18650s then I don't know why Tesla would make them. And I don't understand why you think they (Panasonic) have to continue the same high volume of the inferior cell.
My assumption is that S/X transition when the time is right for both companies.
This note from Tilson's email to investors was just put out, passing it along.
All that said, I think that we are on the cusp of having to go closer to market neutral by putting on some hedges, even if not selling (some of) these kinds of stocks outright. The question is which ones. Some of these companies are now very profitable, very cash-flow positive, businesses that — while not cheap or even market-average — aren’t trading in bubble territory. Some of these companies could do reasonably well, and if you have huge gains, may not be worth selling in order to prevent a 25%-40% decline. Better to hedge these things with some other instrument.
It’s pretty obvious to me that the biggest bubble in the market is Tesla. Why? Because it’s the company with positively the weakest fundamentals. It’s almost comically bad. Margins, competition, sales trajectory, capital requirements — any one of these individually would be reason to short it. This company would be bankrupt within approximately a year or two at the most, if it couldn’t access the capital markets anymore. Any meaningful decline in government subsidies could in turn trigger this, even aside from all the other market and technology-based variables.
It’s even more obvious when you talk to the bulls in the stock — from institutional investors to smaller players. Very few have read the quarterly SEC filings or are even proficient in financial statement analysis. Almost none have done comparative work on the other automakers, which may be Tesla’s biggest advantage with its investor base (“Look at all these robots! An assembly line! Unique!”).
However, we all know Tesla is up because of something else. This is a sexy product — a car — not some dorky behind-the-scenes cloud product. Buying the stock may even become a political statement for some. Last December, it became a Trump stock, and so the stock went up. Then, it became an anti-Trump stock, and — you guessed it — the stock went up because of that too. It’s all totally irrational, but nevertheless real. It could go parabolic before it goes to zero, which it will barring a miracle.
It’s been an insanely good 1-2 years — in some cases more — in these stocks. My mind is now focused on figuring out a way to lock in these gains, perhaps without selling the stocks outright. Maybe the answer is to simply short Tesla and ride out what could still be a painful 9-18 months? That’s the big question.
In the end, the history books will probably read: “Despite having seen the movie before, and having a rational argument to the contrary, he waited too long. Could have cashed in and retired, but chose the curtain and rolled the bullish dice one time too many. Rest in peace.”
All that said, I think that we are on the cusp of having to go closer to market neutral by putting on some hedges, even if not selling (some of) these kinds of stocks outright. The question is which ones. Some of these companies are now very profitable, very cash-flow positive, businesses that — while not cheap or even market-average — aren’t trading in bubble territory. Some of these companies could do reasonably well, and if you have huge gains, may not be worth selling in order to prevent a 25%-40% decline. Better to hedge these things with some other instrument.
It’s pretty obvious to me that the biggest bubble in the market is Tesla. Why? Because it’s the company with positively the weakest fundamentals. It’s almost comically bad. Margins, competition, sales trajectory, capital requirements — any one of these individually would be reason to short it. This company would be bankrupt within approximately a year or two at the most, if it couldn’t access the capital markets anymore. Any meaningful decline in government subsidies could in turn trigger this, even aside from all the other market and technology-based variables.
It’s even more obvious when you talk to the bulls in the stock — from institutional investors to smaller players. Very few have read the quarterly SEC filings or are even proficient in financial statement analysis. Almost none have done comparative work on the other automakers, which may be Tesla’s biggest advantage with its investor base (“Look at all these robots! An assembly line! Unique!”).
However, we all know Tesla is up because of something else. This is a sexy product — a car — not some dorky behind-the-scenes cloud product. Buying the stock may even become a political statement for some. Last December, it became a Trump stock, and so the stock went up. Then, it became an anti-Trump stock, and — you guessed it — the stock went up because of that too. It’s all totally irrational, but nevertheless real. It could go parabolic before it goes to zero, which it will barring a miracle.
It’s been an insanely good 1-2 years — in some cases more — in these stocks. My mind is now focused on figuring out a way to lock in these gains, perhaps without selling the stocks outright. Maybe the answer is to simply short Tesla and ride out what could still be a painful 9-18 months? That’s the big question.
In the end, the history books will probably read: “Despite having seen the movie before, and having a rational argument to the contrary, he waited too long. Could have cashed in and retired, but chose the curtain and rolled the bullish dice one time too many. Rest in peace.”
Of course! And that time is likely to be fairly soon, as Gigafactory capacity ramps up and/or Panasonic tools up to produce those cells elsewhere. I suspect 'fairly soon' will be sometime in early 2018.
We know that Panasonic in Japan made 2170 NMC cells for the PowerPack 2. But clearly, most of the Osaka factories are still tooled for 18650's.
But the reason to continue to use the 18650's may be capex. The biggest gain in the Model 3 cells are likely from a chemistry change, not a form factor change. They can incorporate whatever chemistry change into the 18650's. To change the S/X battery pack production to 2170's means capex for both Panasonic in Japan and the S/X battery integration production in Fremont. Tesla and/or Panasonic may choose to hold off on that capex.
I'm pretty glad the market correction happen now, so we'll get a clear sky this summer for TSLA to really take off.
Reciprocity
Active Member
I guess the transcript from the call with investors related to the last capital raise could have been a hoax. The one where Elon said that they expected the 2170 in the S/X by the end of the year. It could have been faked or misinterpreted. But what mystifies me is that people think that Tesla would not care about $500,000,000 in gross margin for 2018 and every year after. I agree that Tesla could buy cells from Panasonic for a very long time, but they should be 2170 by the end of this year or mid 2018 at the latest. If Panasonic was so in love with 18650 then why would they partner with Tesla on 2170? Why does Panasonic expect Tesla to support the dying format. Tesla could have went out on their own with 2170, they didnt. They chose to partner with Panasonic and others at the GFs, isnt that enough for Panasonic or should they continue to get propped up by Tesla?
1.8 Billion cells is about 300,000 S/X:
Tesla Motors Extends (TSLA) Deal With Panasonic Corp To Supply Battery Cells Through 2017
Article from Inside EV related to the investor call:
Report: Tesla To Transition To 2170 Cell In Model S & X By End Of Year
You can be my friend, but If I can make 500,000,000 more dollars per year and still be besties at the GFs, im going to do it. This is also in Panasonic's best interests because they are fu**ed if Tesla goes under. This is business folks.
If you dont see them doing in 2018, do you ever see them doing it or are they just going to overpay by $500M-$600M per year for ever?
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