No one at Tesla has thrown caution into the prospect of any delays in July release. At some point - as we get closer - reality will set in. Don't let anyone shake the faith so close to D day.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
Again, Time will tell. I hope his source is correct.
Our positions will all be better off if he is.
Edit: I was on a recent factory tour and it 'appeared' there was still a lot to do for the model 3 line
Again, Time will tell. I hope his source is correct.
Our positions will all be better off if he is.
Edit: I was on a recent factory tour and it 'appeared' there was still a lot to do for the model 3 line
I have to say that I am skeptical as far as this report is concerned as well. While based on what I saw during the recent factory tour I expect that Model 3 production equipment installation will be complete some time in July, but debugging the robots will take time. If we assume industry average time, it will take close to 6 month to get equipment running at nominal speed - which is in line with Tesla's projection of getting to 5K Model 3 per week by the end of the year. If they manage to beat this average debugging time, they might get to 5K/week a little earlier.
The main reason I am skeptical about this report is that actually nobody can know *at this point in time* whether Tesla delivers dozens, hundreds or thousands of cars in July.
Reciprocity
Active Member
They could deliver a couple thousand in July and not have it mean the line is fully operational. They could be building many at least partially by hand while they work out the kinks, it's not like employees won't be there during around.
I don't know how much summations can help but I know the guy that came from Audi is there specifically to help take the car from design to production and had some documented success doing that with some fairly complex luxury cars. How much simpler is it too manufacture an electric car assuming the packs and drive train are completely separate? Tesla has sparred no expense on this part of the process and it must go better then S and definitely better then the X.
I think that you are underestimating logistical challenge of building thousands of cars "by hand" **while** the installation of the equipment had just been completed and the debugging is going on full speed. IMO it is possible to build dozens of cars by hand in July, thousands is a very long shot: they can't do it in the area of M3 production line(s) while robots are being debugged, and setting up completely separate area is expensive, and I think they simply do not have space to do that (not for thousands of cars...)
Once again, installation of equipment will probably be complete in July, and then priority no.1 would be debugging it. IMO they will not be able to produce nor setting the goal of producing thousands of cars in July.
Last edited:
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I believe that the there is no way that they won't be ready today have any automated assembly posts ready from the start of M3 launch production.
Didn't they say they the M3 packs modules are the same as the TE modules?
ValueAnalyst
Closed
This is in-line with my 25,000 Model 3 delivery forecast for 3Q17 and 50,000 for 4Q17.
If anything, I expect Elon & Team to prove me conservative, once again, as they have done repeatedly and at an increasing frequency in the past.
All signs point to quicker-than-expected (even by TMC bulls) Model 3 ramp-up.
Last edited:
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Tesla skipped Beta Testing, means there were closer to production than most people think
Also, there are supposed to be in total 4 production lines for M3. These 4 production lines are for end of year goal of 5000/week.(i.e 1250/week per production line)
All we need for thousands ( > 1K) of Cars at end of July, is one semi-functional production line and that could still be met.
Personally, I think there is gonna be an event where like 500+ employees will take delivery of M3 by end of July.
What is the source for "4 production lines", and why do you think that they are all for parallel operation, rather than sequential? Note that these lines could be for sequential areas of production, I.e. Body production line, final assembly line, etc.
Good question, this was based on either a TMC posting or an online article I read like 2-3 mths back. If I find it in next 15-20 mins I will edit this post and provide you the link.
I am assuming that this is parallel, just like from one line for S they added one more for X. Yes there will both sequential and parallel operations.
Also to get 1K car, i.e 250cars/week - it is 5% rate of final 5K/week rate for the month of July.
You all know where I was recently with a bunch of fellow TMC'ers. I visited again a few days later. I do not believe they will have volume production in place in July. I do not know how many vehicles they can assemble with prototype parts. I am hopeful for volume production to begin soon.
As another datapoint, remember this report on Gigafactory pack integration:
Tesla Invest $216 Million Into Model 3 Battery Line At Gigafactory
Even if the details and calculations aren't quite right, it is clear that the manual assembly of battery packs is only going to get them so far in the production ramp. The automated production lines have to be installed and running correctly to have real volume ramp.
It may be that Tesla can finish up a bunch of vehicles in July, but I do not believe they will have volume production processes ramped in July. I do believe they will try as soon as they can and whatever doesn't work, they'll do by hand if they can. They will make something work. But volume production is more likely cranking through in Sept or October, and even then only if everything is in place and the parts suppliers don't screw up.
Again, a big win is any volume production process running smoothly in 2017. It makes for a blockbuster 2018. Each month before December where the volume production process comes online is a big win.
Last edited:
dc_h
Active Member
They are different with Powerpack designed for more complete daily cycles and long term stability and auto cell\pack chemistry and design for performance. Both appear to be more durable, retaining charge, longer than the competition, but the functional requirement for the PowerPack is for a full daily cycle, while most drivers would not use 80-100% of the pack load every day.
How accurate are Trevor Ps predictions / inside scoops so far? I believe he has made a few.
Last edited:
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
I can't imagine tesla allowing battery packs to be 'critical path' to volume production of Model3. That would be an "epic fail".
I'd love to see 1000 cars produced in July, but I think it's more likely some external supplier screws up and can't get tesla the part or the part is defective
Supplier issues over exotic parts was the issue for MX: Windshields, FWDs seals and mechanisms, mono-post rear seats
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
3Victoria
Active Member
He claims his source has been reliable. But if the line is not complete and tested then predicting when this will happen is problematic. However, they have experience setting up numerous lines (Fremont and GF) so must be getting better at it.
Also, one of the more prominent contributors here, indicated something similar a while back. I will have to hunt down that post.
- Status
Similar threads
- Sticky
