2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[ValueAnalyst]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it sounds a lot like GM is stuck at Level 2: Putting Cadillac's self-driving Super Cruise technology to the test

GM, likely the car manufacturer that's closest (for lack of a better word) to Tesla on this subject is putting Level 2 to only one model by fall 2018.

If Tesla can really follow this with Level 4/5 demo by the end of 2018, it will really set the stage for technology chasm between Tesla and others.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it sounds a lot like GM is stuck at Level 2: Putting Cadillac's self-driving Super Cruise technology to the test

GM, likely the car manufacturer that's closest (for lack of a better word) to Tesla on this subject is putting Level 2 to only one model by fall 2018.

If Tesla can really follow this with Level 4/5 demo by the end of 2018, it will really set the stage for technology chasm between Tesla and others.

I believe Mercedes' Drive Pilot is the closest system to the autopilot. Tesla has come far, but they haven't left the competitors behind just yet. Tesla needs to start pushing out updates that utilize all the cameras.

 

[D-egg-O]

I agree with @Yggdrasill . The only legacy OEM close to Tesla in any way shape or form is Daimler. The only thing they are missing is a solar panel/roof product (announcement).

 

[ValueAnalyst]

BYD , for one. He who underestimates the Chinese should read a little Kipling.

Correct me if I'm mistaken, but isn't BYD's planned 2018 capacity less than 15 GWh vs. Tesla's 35 GWh? And 35 GWh for 2020 vs. Tesla's 150 GWh?

I also expect Tesla's subsequent 3-4 Gigafactories to start coming online by 2020 and finished by 2021, so 500+ GWh for Tesla by 2021.

If any Chinese player can come close to Tesla, it'll be CATL, but as far as I now they're shooting for 50 GWh by 2020. So maybe all combined, Chinese battery manufacturers can come close to one-third to one-half of Tesla's capacity by 2020/21?

See this: Another U-turn « Week In China Seems BYD is confused about its strategy, which is typical of Tesla's competitors.

Other issues I see with BYD:

1. Haven't seen any progress on autonomous driving
2. Design ("have you seen their car?")
3. Moving away from vertical integration by spinning off its battery manufacturing unit
4. Too focused on buses, which I see as being replaced by ridesharing
5. Supercharger network?

 

[AlMc]

Jonas on CNBC with bumping GM to overweight as they are getting into collecting AD data.

 

[Snapdragon III]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it sounds a lot like GM is stuck at Level 2: Putting Cadillac's self-driving Super Cruise technology to the test

GM, likely the car manufacturer that's closest (for lack of a better word) to Tesla on this subject is putting Level 2 to only one model by fall 2018.

If Tesla can really follow this with Level 4/5 demo by the end of 2018, it will really set the stage for technology chasm between Tesla and others.

I hope you are right, but is is always hard to tell how far along these companies really are. The one area where I feel like Tesla is way out ahead, that I have not heard anyone else implementing is that there is a reasonable explanation that their autopilot system will continue to improve over the years, even for a car purchased today. I assume that if you buy a new Cadillac with super cruse next year, there is no chance that it is going to bump up to level 3 a year later. This is a huge, and under appreciated advantage for Tesla.

 

[DurandalAI]

My understanding is that the 2018 Leaf will have Pro Pilot, which should equal AP1 functionality.
Latest teaser for 2018 Nissan Leaf shows ProPilot Assist self-driving capability
I think it will be least expensive competitor to Tesla at least in terms of AP1 and maybe EAP. Of course, whether or not it can be upgraded to Level 4 is to be seen.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I hope you are right, but is is always hard to tell how far along these companies really are. The one area where I feel like Tesla is way out ahead, that I have not heard anyone else implementing is that there is a reasonable explanation that their autopilot system will continue to improve over the years, even for a car purchased today. I assume that if you buy a new Cadillac with super cruse next year, there is no chance that it is going to bump up to level 3 a year later. This is a huge, and under appreciated advantage for Tesla.

That's a great point. Also Tesla's billions of miles of FSD data increasing at the highest rate vs. competition.

If what Elon said (paraphrasing: "improvements to Autopilot will accelerate in the coming weeks/months"), then it shouldn't be too long before Tesla's lead on this widens.

I know, however, that FSD is a subject on which I'm very optmisitic vs most bulls here. So take what I say with a grain of salt on this.

 

[MXWing]

Tesla Drops A Bomb On Shareholders And Owners. - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

I was excited about adding another Tesla to the garage at blow out discounts but found no discounts were to be had without good underlying reasons.

Tired of all these Seeking Alpha hit pieces.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Final piece of Tesla's $1.25 tax incentive deal falling into place

According to a June audit report, the company has doled out more than $1.1 billion in capital investment in the factory since 2014, and has hired more than 380 employees and 550 construction workers.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Tesla Drops A Bomb On Shareholders And Owners. - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

I was excited about adding another Tesla to the garage at blow out discounts but found no discounts were to be had without good underlying reasons.

Tired of all these Seeking Alpha hit pieces.
View attachment 233114

I'm banned from responding to Montana Skeptic (although somehow he's allowed to comment on my articles), so thanks for carrying the torch.

 

[MXWing]

I'm banned from responding to Montana Skeptic (although somehow he's allowed to comment on my articles), so thanks for carrying the torch.

9 out of 10 SA comments by me end up being deleted anyway. Tried my best to have a few stick.

I'm no ValueAnalyst (meant as a compliment) but I can easily spot

Lies, damned lies, statistics and TSLA bears

 

[ValueAnalyst]

My understanding is that the 2018 Leaf will have Pro Pilot, which should equal AP1 functionality.
Latest teaser for 2018 Nissan Leaf shows ProPilot Assist self-driving capability
I think it will be least expensive competitor to Tesla at least in terms of AP1 and maybe EAP. Of course, whether or not it can be upgraded to Level 4 is to be seen.

This is another example of Level 1/2 drive-assist system included in a 2018 model. Unclear if it can even change lanes!

Why would anyone buy a 200-mile range 2018 Leaf for $37,500 with Level 1/2 autonomy, if they can buy a Model 3 with Enhanced Autopilot?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

The Problem With Tesla's Competition - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

My latest publicly available article. Fresh off the press for your reading pleasure.

Comments welcome. Assist in responding to FUD very welcome.

 

[MXWing]

The Problem With Tesla's Competition - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

My latest publicly available article. Fresh off the press for your reading pleasure.

Comments welcome. Assist in responding to FUD very welcome.

You are not capturing the differences in charging capabilities between the manufacturers.

In theory, the Bolt and the Model 3 have approximately the same range.

Without detailed planning, the Bolt is good for 100 miles and then you turn around and go home.

The Model 3 gets from CA to NY without any advanced planning. Just say navigate to Statue of Liberty from the Golden Gate bridge and you will be taken there with stops at the needed chargers.

 

[DurandalAI]

This is another example of Level 1/2 drive-assist system included in a 2018 model. Unclear if it can even change lanes!

Why would anyone buy a 200-mile range 2018 Leaf for $37,500 with Level 1/2 autonomy, if they can buy a Model 3 with Enhanced Autopilot?

I suspect only if the need is urgent and they cannot wait. If one of my vehicles were to crap out before my Model 3 is delivered, I would possibly consider a lease of a Leaf. I doubt that it will be 200 mile range until 2020 anyhow.

 

[Snapdragon III]

The Problem With Tesla's Competition - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

My latest publicly available article. Fresh off the press for your reading pleasure.

Comments welcome. Assist in responding to FUD very welcome.

I am confused with this disclaimer on your article. "I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours." I thought you were long Tesla? Interesting article.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I am confused with this disclaimer on your article. "I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours." I thought you were long Tesla? Interesting article.

The disclaimer should have been changed; I told this to the editors. The system did not allow me to select that option before submission (i.e. glitch). I am very long TSLA.

 

[landis]

Comments welcome.

This is just a nit but I think you meant mom taught not mom thought.

It will be interesting to see if competition will step up the pace prior to 2025 once M3 rollout is in full force.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I hope you are right, but is is always hard to tell how far along these companies really are. The one area where I feel like Tesla is way out ahead, that I have not heard anyone else implementing is that there is a reasonable explanation that their autopilot system will continue to improve over the years, even for a car purchased today. I assume that if you buy a new Cadillac with super cruse next year, there is no chance that it is going to bump up to level 3 a year later. This is a huge, and under appreciated advantage for Tesla.

and the advantage is getting bigger as Elon launches more satellites for networking. GM and I'm sure others can negotiate deals with cell carriers to add data connectivity to their cars, but will have to do this per region/country, Tesla's network will work everywhere