2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[SwTslaGrl]

At least the competition release press-releases Germany's BMW plans electric sedan as direct competitor to Tesla's Model 3: Handelsblatt

 

[Waiting4M3]

I suspect only if the need is urgent and they cannot wait. If one of my vehicles were to crap out before my Model 3 is delivered, I would possibly consider a lease of a Leaf. I doubt that it will be 200 mile range until 2020 anyhow.

Leasing a Leaf will put you on the hook for ~$10K, why pay that much and get stuck in a lease for 3 years? Your can probably fix your existing car to run another year for a lot less.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

If anyone had any doubts, this forum is very closely followed by FUDsters.

See the exchange below.

 

[Waiting4M3]

At least the competition release press-releases Germany's BMW plans electric sedan as direct competitor to Tesla's Model 3: Handelsblatt

The M3 will eat into the 3-series sales, but there will be loyal BMW buyers who will hold out. But if this supposed Tesla-killer ever comes as planned, and is better than the M3, BMW better add some plan to handle the cannibalizing effect it will have on the ICE 3-series

 

[GoTslaGo]

It seems to me that these are the priorities for siting a Gigafactory, in no particular order:

* solar irradiance
* wind potential
* hydro availability
* cheap flat large parcel of land
* government incentives
* low labor rates
* easy enough to obtain educated workforce, at least educated enough to handle precise technical manufacturing
* close enough to major sources of raw materials, or least cheap enough for shipping
* close enough to major market, or at least cheap shipping to major market
* within free trade zone of a major market
* political and economic stability

It seems to me that there should be plenty of locations in southern Europe that work well for this.

Similarly, Australia should be a major contender for a site. They hit most of the points. I think politics, labor costs, and the fact that they are a bit distant from major markets work against them. India is also a major potential candidate, with free trade zone/access to major market being the toughest issue.

Sounds kind of like Spain (except for some bits and pieces here).

 

[vgrinshpun]

The M3 will eat into the 3-series sales, but there will be loyal BMW buyers who will hold out. But if this supposed Tesla-killer ever comes as planned, and is better than the M3, BMW better add some plan to handle the cannibalizing effect it will have on the ICE 3-series

M3 *already* ate into the 3 and 4 Series sales - coincident with opening of M3 reservations in March of 2016, YoY 3-4 Series US sales in 2016 were down by 25%

This is probably the reason for the announcement. With some delay, they finally read the writing on the wall.

EDIT:
2014 3-4 Series sales: 142,232
2015 3-4 Series sales: 140,609
2016 3-4 Series sales: 106,221

OUCH!

BMW 3-Series Sales Figures - GOOD CAR BAD CAR
BMW 4-Series Sales Figures - GOOD CAR BAD CAR

EDIT #2: Wanted to post this in response to @mmd nonsense on comparison of BMW vs. Tesla growth numbers, but was leery of Forum deciding that it is just sour grapes because I did not make it on his ignore list. Which, as everybody who responded to my **public service announcement** of course know is totally false - the group therapy session was a resounding success.

EDIT #3: My apologies! Mixed up @mmd with @myusername ... AGAIN! Anybody else has this problem? Because you know... Oh, nevermind...

 

[McRat]

and the advantage is getting bigger as Elon launches more satellites for networking. GM and I'm sure others can negotiate deals with cell carriers to add data connectivity to their cars, but will have to do this per region/country, Tesla's network will work everywhere

My GMs have 4G LTE and a human concierge if I need anything. Which ones have you been driving?

BTW - Satellite internet is better than dial-up, but worse than DSL or 4G. And it has up-time issues.

 

[Drumheller]

My GMs have 4G LTE and a human concierge if I need anything. Which ones have you been driving?

BTW - Satellite internet is better than dial-up, but worse than DSL or 4G. And it has up-time issues.

I came from a GM car to my Model S. In fact, with the exception of my Tesla and Miata, I've only owned GM products. I don't intend to buy another GM and it is only because of one reason: service. My service experiences with GM were mediocre to horrible. My service experiences with Tesla have been about as far opposite as possible.

Even if the Bolt looked good and had a charging network to rival Tesla, I would still want to stay with Tesla because of the Service experiences. That has become make or break for me and GM is abysmal.

 

[ggies07]

At least the competition release press-releases Germany's BMW plans electric sedan as direct competitor to Tesla's Model 3: Handelsblatt

Hope it comes with a gigafactory!

 

[McRat]

I came from a GM car to my Model S. In fact, with the exception of my Tesla and Miata, I've only owned GM products. I don't intend to buy another GM and it is only because of one reason: service. My service experiences with GM were mediocre to horrible. My service experiences with Tesla have been about as far opposite as possible.

Even if the Bolt looked good and had a charging network to rival Tesla, I would still want to stay with Tesla because of the Service experiences. That has become make or break for me and GM is abysmal.

Lots of GMs and no service problems here. I'm down to 6 GM cars and trucks right now.
Fast, close, honest, and wash the car before I pick it up.
But I will admit, I don't need service that often.

 

[Waiting4M3]

M3 *already* ate into the 3 and 4 Series sales - coincident with opening of M3 reservations in March of 2016, YoY 3-4 Series US sales in 2016 were down by 25%

This is probably the reason for the announcement. With some delay, they finally read the writing on n the wall.

Plotting the US 3 and 4-series monthly sale YoY growth, based on data from here:

Their sales has been going down for a long time before the M3 unveil, maybe it's Audi beating them...

 

[Waiting4M3]

My GMs have 4G LTE and a human concierge if I need anything. Which ones have you been driving?

BTW - Satellite internet is better than dial-up, but worse than DSL or 4G. And it has up-time issues.

which country does your GM's 4G LTE work in? how does it work globally?

 

[brian45011]

Looks like Australia is ready to be a contender to a Tesla GF:

"Tesla’s is recognised for their electric cars and energy storage and their Gigafactory has created close to 10,000 jobs at the Nevada-based factory."

"According to a [Nevada] June audit report, the company has doled out more than $1.1 billion in capital investment in the factory since 2014, and has hired more than 380 employees and 550 construction workers."

In other news:

"Australia’s first battery storage “gigafactory” is likely to be built in Darwin, with a new consortium planing to establish a large-scale lithium-ion manufacturing plant by the end of 2018. Energy Renaissance, a company backed by engineering group UGL (now owned by CIMIC) says the first phase of the $100 million plant will create four distinct production lines, and will target niche utility and industrial scale markets in Australia and Asia. Energy Renaissance is partnering with US battery storage company 24M, and is said to have the enthusiastic support, if not the financial backing, of the new Labor government" Battery storage “gigafactory” planned for Darwin for 2018

CIMIC seems to be home grown, but was 72% owned by Hochtief. CIMIC Group Limited - CIMIC Group

Hochtief AG provides construction and construction related services worldwide. The Company finances, designs, builds, constructs and operates a wide variety of facilities through its five divisions, Airport, Development, Construction Services Americas, Construction Services Asia Pacific, and Construction Services Europe. HOT:Xetra Stock Quote - HOCHTIEF AG

24M is an MIT spawned disruptor promoting "semi-solid" Li-ion cells. About Us | 24M

Looks like OZ could soon have more battery GFs than China.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Plotting the US 3 and 4-series monthly sale YoY growth, based on data from here:

View attachment 233128

Their sales has been going down for a long time before the M3 unveil, maybe it's Audi beating them...

Something is wrong with this chart - just look at the yearly sales in your link. Sales went down from about 140k during the 2008 crisis, and started to recover by 2013, reaching the 140k plateau in 2014 and 2015, and then went down, as I mentioned, by 25% in 2016

 

[vgrinshpun]

"Tesla’s is recognised for their electric cars and energy storage and their Gigafactory has created close to 10,000 jobs at the Nevada-based factory."

"According to a [Nevada] June audit report, the company has doled out more than $1.1 billion in capital investment in the factory since 2014, and has hired more than 380 employees and 550 construction workers."

In other news:

"Australia’s first battery storage “gigafactory” is likely to be built in Darwin, with a new consortium planing to establish a large-scale lithium-ion manufacturing plant by the end of 2018. Energy Renaissance, a company backed by engineering group UGL (now owned by CIMIC) says the first phase of the $100 million plant will create four distinct production lines, and will target niche utility and industrial scale markets in Australia and Asia." Battery storage “gigafactory” planned for Darwin for 2018

CIMIC seems to be home grown, but was 72% owned by Hochtief. CIMIC Group Limited - CIMIC Group

Hochtief AG provides construction and construction related services worldwide. The Company finances, designs, builds, constructs and operates a wide variety of facilities through its five divisions, Airport, Development, Construction Services Americas, Construction Services Asia Pacific, and Construction Services Europe. HOT:Xetra Stock Quote - HOCHTIEF AG

Looks like OZ could soon have more battery GFs than China.

The authors of the article apparently had terrible time with math in high school - at about 1/65th of the cost of real GF, this one looks like a deca- millifactory...

 

[MXWing]

At least the competition release press-releases Germany's BMW plans electric sedan as direct competitor to Tesla's Model 3: Handelsblatt

Wont lose money on every car sold unlike the Model 3!

(SARCASM - please do not excommunicate me from Longville)

 

[DurandalAI]

My GMs have 4G LTE and a human concierge if I need anything. Which ones have you been driving?

BTW - Satellite internet is better than dial-up, but worse than DSL or 4G. And it has up-time issues.

The speeds should be in the gigabit range and the latency a mere 25ms. The reliability should be greater as well, since they will be at a lower orbit than traditional geosynchronous orbit satellites that provide that dirt slow service we're used to out here in the boonies.

With latency as low as 25ms, SpaceX to launch broadband satellites in 2019

 

[brian45011]

The authors of the article apparently had terrible time with math in high school - at about 1/65th of the cost of real GF, this one looks like a deca- millifactory...

Was Ms Palaszczuk unaware of:

Boston Energy consortium advances plans for Queensland battery gigafactory ?

 

[vgrinshpun]

Was Ms Palaszczuk unaware of:

Boston Energy consortium advances plans for Queensland battery gigafactory ?

Unless you are aware that she was not, I suspect she was. Which, if true, does not bode well for Boston Energy consortium *plans*...

 

[Bgarret]

We’re Tracking Every Project Elon Musk Has Dreamed Up.

Elon Musk goal tracker on Bloomberg.

37 goals tracked
11 completed
2 late.

Interesting and quite fair.