Visits to TMC lately are freaking me out, man..
Inducing an extra drag just to thread
Kevin O'Learing at me
Inducing an extra drag just to thread
Kevin O'Learing at me
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Some interesting nudge nudge, wink, wink indications coming from TMC poster FlyF4 over on the 2017 VIN model X order and delivery thread.
Seems like he/she is based in Reno, and has accurately been predicting recent slow downs/deliveries due to car changes currently underway.
Might even be battery changes.
Seems like he/she is based in Reno, and has accurately been predicting recent slow downs/deliveries due to car changes currently underway.
Might even be battery changes.
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dhrivnak
Active Member
Consider SIPs (Structural Insulating Panels). They are quite strong and very well insulating. We used them in our house and would use them again in a heartbeat. Www.hrivnak.com
Check out the last couple of posts on the 2017 Model X vin ordering and deliveries thread. Look like changes are currently underway. But for cars already ordered.
Wild speculation for new batteries.
wow that is a great thought. With ample solar energy, you could desalinate ocean water and green the Sahara. You would probably want extra C02 in the air first too make sure... it.all.makes.sense...
You could always just subscribe to TMC and banish him.
Mike Smith
Active Member
India is going to replace all of its cars with electric ones by 2030
This means not only massive demand for EV's, but for batteries and solar as well to provide all the electricity.
This means not only massive demand for EV's, but for batteries and solar as well to provide all the electricity.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
The Energy Minister has set a plan to make all new cars sold in India electric my 2030.
It is not a law. And it is not replacing the ICE fleet by 2030. The consensus is it takes 20 years to turn over the fleet. So it will be 2050 before all cars in India are electric if this plan becomes law and stays the law til 2050.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Giving Musk the benefit of the doubt here, I believe he is saying that he needs two tunnels of radius 12ft, not just one. Only one tunnel would not accommodate two-way traffic.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
As Tesla now has access to non-dilutive debt, I expect Tesla to capture 5% (4-5m cars/year) of the market in the next three years (by 2020/21).
Tesla's growth is underestimated even by most TSLA bulls.
Elon seems to always push the limits of pushing, so that may turn out to be the case VA, and I will be happy if it is so. Still, for now, I consider a good outcome as 3 million in output by ~2025, maybe as high as 5 million.
mmd
Active Member
Coal demand will also go up even more than forecast. Clean gas/hybrid cars are better for developing countries using so much coal.
Coal Down, Renewables Up, India on the Rise in 2035 Energy Outlook
I think the next six months will clearly highlight (to the general investing public) the different directions that GM & Ford are going vs. Tesla and reinforce that Tesla should not be valued on similar multiples.
Within the next 3 months Tesla will be launching the Model 3 which is going to show just how big the competitive gap is between the two companies. Sometime in the next 6 months Tesla will announce GF 3 & 4, roll out more details on the Semi, maybe start to tease the Model Y, launch the solar roof, continue to smoke Corvettes in drag races and who knows what else. Maybe we will even see a reasonable revenue line from Tesla Energy.
In stark contrast, the Volt has been in the wild for around 5 months, "won" the awards, is generally well liked and somehow GM has not announced another EV in development. Maybe we will get a hybrid CT6 with Supercruise. That's right, of the entire GM lineup there will be 1 EV and 1 hybrid with something akin to Autopilot.
Ford, somehow, is providing even less leadership
Within the next 3 months Tesla will be launching the Model 3 which is going to show just how big the competitive gap is between the two companies. Sometime in the next 6 months Tesla will announce GF 3 & 4, roll out more details on the Semi, maybe start to tease the Model Y, launch the solar roof, continue to smoke Corvettes in drag races and who knows what else. Maybe we will even see a reasonable revenue line from Tesla Energy.
In stark contrast, the Volt has been in the wild for around 5 months, "won" the awards, is generally well liked and somehow GM has not announced another EV in development. Maybe we will get a hybrid CT6 with Supercruise. That's right, of the entire GM lineup there will be 1 EV and 1 hybrid with something akin to Autopilot.
Ford, somehow, is providing even less leadership
everman
Member
So some summation speculations of mine that have been pinging in this thread recently:
1) Gigafactories announced this year: China, Europe, India and the potential fourth in the USA or Canada. These locations will be all-in-one battery to finished vehicle facilities.
2) Future satellite network will definitely be the future reusability customer, with Tesla buying a stake of bandwidth, allowing the transferring of cash from Tesla to SpaceX
3) Refreshed interiors Model S and X will be announced to coincide with the Model 3 reveal, to include whatever fancy new (non-HUD) advancements they've come up with, spurring demand for MS and MX, and re-differentiating the product from M3
4) While disrupting the transport business is capital intensive, and could only result in 5-10% of market share being transferred to Tesla in the next 3-5 years, this reduction in revenue will be enough to begin an irreversible slide into bankruptcy for most if not all existing auto makers, as their margins (and liability structures) are simply not set up to absorb that loss of revenue. (Exhibit A: 2009) Any unfulfilled demand will simply be met with more and more people waiting for M3/MY availability, starving out existing options. The blackberries and Nokias will sit in the lots, as consumer sentiment simply shifts away from that product.
5) Tesla semi debuts as fully autonomous capable fleet machine
6) All major multi-dozen supercharger stations installed in 2017 are 450+ KWh capable with robotic charging capability
As a result of these developments (and a few I can't think of right now), $TSLA finishes 2018 between $500-$700, finishes 2020 between $1,000-$1,350. I retire 2021.
1) Gigafactories announced this year: China, Europe, India and the potential fourth in the USA or Canada. These locations will be all-in-one battery to finished vehicle facilities.
2) Future satellite network will definitely be the future reusability customer, with Tesla buying a stake of bandwidth, allowing the transferring of cash from Tesla to SpaceX
3) Refreshed interiors Model S and X will be announced to coincide with the Model 3 reveal, to include whatever fancy new (non-HUD) advancements they've come up with, spurring demand for MS and MX, and re-differentiating the product from M3
4) While disrupting the transport business is capital intensive, and could only result in 5-10% of market share being transferred to Tesla in the next 3-5 years, this reduction in revenue will be enough to begin an irreversible slide into bankruptcy for most if not all existing auto makers, as their margins (and liability structures) are simply not set up to absorb that loss of revenue. (Exhibit A: 2009) Any unfulfilled demand will simply be met with more and more people waiting for M3/MY availability, starving out existing options. The blackberries and Nokias will sit in the lots, as consumer sentiment simply shifts away from that product.
5) Tesla semi debuts as fully autonomous capable fleet machine
6) All major multi-dozen supercharger stations installed in 2017 are 450+ KWh capable with robotic charging capability
As a result of these developments (and a few I can't think of right now), $TSLA finishes 2018 between $500-$700, finishes 2020 between $1,000-$1,350. I retire 2021.
Elon might be able to do it.
[Doing everything I can to influence Elon on this, but, I agree, no I cannot do this.]
Todays move was not unique to TSLA. Lots of other big names in tech like AMZN, NFLX, and AAPL were also up about 2%. However, this does make it harder to have a large move after earnings imo. I feel like, in addition to Model 3 being on time, there will be some other important announcement in the investor letter. Maybe all S/X's this quarter have the new 2170 cells? That would be a huge catalyst b/c it means Gigafactory is up and running much earlier than expected. This has to happen at some point before Model 3 b/c they'd want to make sure the new cells and packs are validated before starting mass production.
That being said, this forum is getting a little too bullish for my liking and maybe that's also a sign
That being said, this forum is getting a little too bullish for my liking and maybe that's also a sign
larmor
Active Member
Have to agree with the last statement in that the near term next week to several months remain cautious about projected growth, as tesla has a track record of slow release to ensure better quality. Furthermore, any profits that were recently generated presumably have been poured into M3 and GF ramping. They are also developing a Semi-- counts as a cost.Todays move was not unique to TSLA. Lots of other big names in tech like AMZN, NFLX, and AAPL were also up about 2%. However, this does make it harder to have a large move after earnings imo. I feel like, in addition to Model 3 being on time, there will be some other important announcement in the investor letter. Maybe all S/X's this quarter have the new 2170 cells? That would be a huge catalyst b/c it means Gigafactory is up and running much earlier than expected. This has to happen at some point before Model 3 b/c they'd want to make sure the new cells and packs are validated before starting mass production.
That being said, this forum is getting a little too bullish for my liking and maybe that's also a sign
Reinvesting into the business is a great sign in of itself, but past market reaction to tesla quarterly reporting shows the market to react to the balance sheet and not the projected or intended growth.
@Paracelsus before you go too wild building your house, visit the SolarDecathlon (held every 2 years) that have 800sqft very high tech houses, one you could heat an 800sqft house in Minnesota area with a 1,600watt hair dryer, or visit a superinsulated house, built with SIPS perhaps where interior air flows totally controlled as there may be a few on Solar Home tour held every fall, or even a "Passivhaus" standard house
back on topic
i am not being argumentative, but if you look on Electrek at photos of largest Solar PV arrarys, look at India.
There is your fuel for EV's.
If you shut down/slow down many refineries or refuse to sell gasoline other than exorbitant rates, the fleet will turn over faster when it has "no gas to burn"
i suspect it will happen much more rapidly than you expect
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Then you must expect severe delays on the additional gigafactory constructions? All four of them?
So if the stock went to $1,000 this year or next, you'd sell TSLA since that's about the discounted present value of 3-5 million cars in 2025?
This demonstrates how people deep inside are not rational, but emotional. Rationalization of their emotions is just a filter to present to the public, to paint a more believable picture. 3 millions in 4 years sound awfully a lot therefore any math that has such a result must somehow be wrong and not trustworthy.
Same with DaveT's competition that will surely develop somehow. Just don't ask where they will get the batteries from. Where are all the needed 'GF' of theirs being built...
Manage the emotions, when they do not meet the math, they are wrong.
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