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On the Jonas downgrade today -- he had an even more significant downgrade shortly before the Model S launch, after earlier issuing a massive upgrade that sent the stock soaring.
Two data points do not make a pattern, but interesting how that played out. Here is a quick summary I put together for @Bgarret's thread on Jonas' pessimistic production forecast: Model III - Your Case: On Time or On Jonas Time?
And since this thread is a check-in on Tesla's plan versus Adam Jonas' forecast, let's see where was our friend Mr. Jonas was. Well, in March 2011 he issued a research note calling Tesla "America's Fourth Automaker" with a huge (at the time) price target of $70 and the stock price skyrocketed.Tesla Soars On Morgan Stanley Upgrade; Sees 200% Upside Thank you Mr. Jonas.
But then, in December 2011, six months before S deliveries began, Jonas slapped Tesla with a major downgrade, dropping his price target from $70 to $44. The stock tanked. Part of the downgrade was based on worries that the EV market would turn out to be smaller than expected. But part of it was due to concerns that the Model S ramp would be slower than expected. Tesla: Morgan Stanley Turns Bearish On Slower EV Adoption
But Jonas' negative outlook on production (admittedly not as pessimistic as in his current report) turned out to be incorrect and in September 2012, once Model S production was up and running, AJ upgraded again based on Tesla beating market expectations on production. So on Model S, AJ's prediction turned out to be conservative, but wrong. Which is fine -- I think as an analyst being conservative probably means you get to keep your job longer.
So Jonas is still manic depressive on Tesla, but maybe he is getting less so over the years. In any case, I think there is a decent chance that this downgrade works out the same way his downgrade before the Model S launch did.
Is it me or does Jonas just seem out to lunch on most of his comments lately??? I seem to have a better idea of what's going on with the company and their plans for the next year than he does but he has access to Tesla to ask questions and tour the factory.
Reciprocity
Active Member
I thought this would be obvious but you dont have to have renewable energy on your roof to use renewable energy.
Heads-up
watch for this to cross correlate to Tesla in articles
Elon Musk's SpaceX mistreated its workers and now it must pay
watch for this to cross correlate to Tesla in articles
Elon Musk's SpaceX mistreated its workers and now it must pay
andrewt3000
Member
0 percent on the auto factory. It's sorta strange. Probably just an issue of prioritization.
Google Maps
Reciprocity
Active Member
Reciprocity
Active Member
Also,apparently none at either GF1 nor GF2 nor a large majority of service centers and superchargers. Lathrop might have some because there are PowerPacks there. Tilburg??? Doesn't look like any at the old Rivera Tool & Die building in Grand Rapids. First look inside new Tesla plant in West Michigan
It does look like the new San Antonio Service Center will be at a location where panels were previously installed. "This is new to Tesla but the building is 8-10 years old. It used to be a Ducati motocycle dealership, has been semi-vacant for a few years. The solar panels have been there for a while, probably from the start."
4K Look At Tesla's San Antonio Store
Using PowerPacks internally at locations with "spikey" loads is good cost control since they mitigate otherwise expensive demand charges.
DurandalAI
Member
$4k/month for interns... Admittedly low compared to normal pay for similar jobs there, but barely below the US median income. A couple of years ago I probably would have been happy with such pay, especially working for SpaceX.
ruralectric
Member
It is well documented that the GF roof was designed specifically with the intent of accommodating solar panels and this includes minimizing rooftop installation of Hvac and other infrastructure to maximize the useful space for solar (too lazy to look up the references). I can imigine that this rooftop real estate will make the perfect testbed as they iterate on their solar panel designs, as well provide power for the factory. It's no surprise to me that we don't see panels up there now given that the Buffalo factory hasn't even started producing panels yet. Except for testing purposes I'm not sure why anyone would expect they would populate that enormous roof with anything but their most cost effective panels that are yet to be built.
andrewt3000
Member
ruralectric
Member
I see now that the poster I referenced was referring to the Fremont plant and not the GF. Sorry. Still, I think that where possible, once the Buffalo plant is up and running we will start to see panels on just about everything Tesla.
Patience Grasshopper!
zzziii
Member
larmor
Active Member
That's ok. It looks like GS is going to make money by accident also...
Good points, plus as someone commented recently, it may not be prudent to deploy solar in an environment of constant construction work stirring up dust and stuff.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Thanks for posting.
Yes, I agree. TSLA stock price depends on a timely model 3 ramp after starting in July
I'm confident Tesla will have the Robotic Body-in-white weld line working soon producing M3 BIWs.
I'm also fairly confident the Final assembly line will be in place for July production
I'm most concerned which suppliers will have part supply issues. It WILL happen. Elon said there would be supplier issues. Nature of bringing up a new car
As to which part(s) will have supply issues, remains to be seen
IMO, it will not be "Tesla made" parts with delays. Tesla is capable of producing BIW cars and painting them.
For MX, it was the Windshield, Falcon Wing Door mechanisms, and Rear Seats
These were all "exotic" parts and difficult to manufacture correctly.
For Model3, the whole car is pretty basic. Nothing exotic except for maybe the large glass roof. Hopefully, tesla mgmt has been closely tracking all suppliers and obtaining initial test articles and production parts for validation.
My impression is that one reason for the fixed glass roof on M3 is that Tesla has the tech to make advanced glass structures (confer the solar tiles), and another that it will be both cheaper and easier to install as well as simplifying robotic interior assembly through the big aperture.
Agree to the rest. Except at least one parts supplier has already been fired -- which must hurt, losing such a big customer -- pour encourager les autres, as it were. So I'm still hopeful.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
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