2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[FredTMC]

I post this without being able to verify:

1. 
   
   32 replies43 retweets183 likes
   

Model 3 Owners Club‏ @Model3Owners
Almost a hundred Model 3s are undergoing durability and crash testing in central Ohio. Explains all the recent sightings there

LINK: Model 3 Owners Club on Twitter

Thanks for posting!!

Now we just need some proof.
Anyone know this OPat Model3OwnersClub?

Let me put it another way...

if this is true then Adam Jonas pessimism is likely unwarranted

 

[green48]

Ford just announced they're cutting 10% of their global workforce...Is this the beginning of the end for Ford? Ford set to cut about 20,000 jobs - report

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Ford just announced they're cutting 10% of their global workforce...Is this the beginning of the end for Ford? Ford set to cut about 20,000 jobs - report

Yes, it is. See my post three posts before yours. They even mention "near-term" lower margins. That near-term will change to forever real quick...

What's really ironic is that they decided to cut 10% of their workforce before cutting their fat dividend, which goes to show their priorities, which is the very reason why these companies are in the funk that they are!

 

[aubreymcfato]

It's me or it's been weeks that Tesla.com doesn't show the Electric Miles counter anymore?
https://www.tesla.com/electric-road-trip

 

[mmd]

I post this without being able to verify:

1. 
   
   32 replies43 retweets183 likes
   

Model 3 Owners Club‏ @Model3Owners
Almost a hundred Model 3s are undergoing durability and crash testing in central Ohio. Explains all the recent sightings there

LINK: Model 3 Owners Club on Twitter

Is this the same guy who spread the rumor that Model 3 will have 2 seconds 0-60?

 

[renim]

Yes, it is. See my post three posts before yours. They even mention "near-term" lower margins. That near-term will change to forever real quick...

What's really ironic is that they decided to cut 10% of their workforce before cutting their fat dividend, which goes to show their priorities, which is the very reason why these companies are in the funk that they are!

they should at least announce both at the same time, workforce and dividend cuts

 

[Ovulation]

Yes, it is. See my post three posts before yours. They even mention "near-term" lower margins. That near-term will change to forever real quick...

What's really ironic is that they decided to cut 10% of their workforce before cutting their fat dividend, which goes to show their priorities, which is the very reason why these companies are in the funk that they are!

That's why unicorn hunters like companies who are run by the founder or a strong CEO with quite a lot of shares, these guys have the standing to try more crazy stuff (fire phone) with a longer horizon and don't have to obey to the stupidity and short sidedness of us shareholders.

 

[neroden]

Lyndon Rive is leaving:
Former SolarCity CEO Lyndon Rive will leave Tesla
Does anyone care?

I think we all kind of thought he was being gently forced out for almost driving the company bankrupt with banking operations.

 

[neroden]

You were wrong about:
a) When the warrants related to the 2018 notes could be exercised

You have no proof of that. The terms still haven't been disclosed.

b) That Nevada assets were excluded from ABL collateral

Yeah, I missed that one.

c) That PENA's rights under the GF lease effectively preclude loans using Nevada assets as security;

You're STILL wrong about this.

and
d) That Tesla needed a capital infusion well before "late 2018" and how it would be structured.

You're still wrong about this. Tesla still didn't need a capital infusion. (If you disagree, you have to actually prove that they would have run out of cash.) Of course, with the stock at new heights, he decided to get one, and I did state that he might do an opportunistic issuance.

I was absolutely NOT expecting the Dec-Mar runup. Not even at all. I thought the stock was going to stay relatively low for that quarter.

I was wrong about my bet. I was wrong about whether bonds were issuable, because apparently the financial institutions want stock.

This is the stupidest thing I have ever read in this forum, and that's saying something. It's quite clear from this piece of moronic idiocy that you can't read a financial statement.

THIS was in response to your claim that Tesla would show a loss for all of 2018. I still don't see how in the hell they can do that unless there's some sort of disaster, and I don't believe you've repeated that claim. (I suppose they could blow everything on R&D but they seem to have pretty good cost controls there.) If they are showing a loss for all of 2018, I don't think the market will keep financing them, and I think Musk knows it.

 

[Reciprocity]

Do you comprehend the distinction between auto liability coverage and product liability coverage?

Hint: the former protects the car owner; the latter protects the car manufacturer. Car manufacturers have no liability for the negligence of the car owner.

Can you explain the difference between first party and third party insurance protection?

Slow your roll. I was referring to Tesla providing liability insurance as an insurer, which they have openly discussed. They did this in reference to their cars being safer and not see discounts from the current insurers.

Your statement was that Tesla doesn't use product liability insurance, they self insure. I said things might change with autonomous cars because they may have new responsibilities as the operator in relation to autonomous software. They damn well would be smart to get insurance unless they are ultra confident the autonomous cars won't be causing injuries or deaths. If they are confident they can do what they do today and self insure and deal with lawsuits as they come up. There will also be regulatory issues that may require autonomous car companies to own responsibility and maintain insurance.

 

[neroden]

Note Co, Ni, and Cu are all next to each other on that chart. Does that give you any hint about how "easy" it will be to separate them when they have been melted together in an amalgam?

They do it literally every single time they refine them from ore, because the ores are all mixed nickel/cobalt/copper ores. Does that give you a clue as to how developed the processes actually are? I mean, seriously, you could burn it and treat it as high-concentration oxide ore. Not the best way to operate, obviously.

You're embarrassing yourself bloviating about Al and Fe.

Well, they're the components which *aren't* in the ores, you know, which could cause theoretical difficulty with just converting the whole thing to sulfides or arsenides or oxides and treating it as extremely-high-concentration ore.

to this day, only lead acid can be recycled profitably...

All this says is that digging up copper/cobalt/nickel ore is currently cheap. Probably far cheaper than collecting the batteries (and certainly than doing so and building a new refinery designed to work on this higher-concentration material). That's all such claims usually say. If there is a threat of shortages, this dynamic will change very quickly.

 

[neroden]

No. It means someone within Tesla (Todd Marin?) has decided it's worth an existential risk to save the product liability premiums.

Hopefully not a decision by Tesla's legal counsel, who is really not competent.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

they should at least announce both at the same time, workforce and dividend cuts

I suspect the dividend cut will soon follow, as Ford already has a very high debt-to-asset ratio. Cutting 20,000 people saves them maybe $1B per year, which is nowhere near the investments they need to make NOW.

If they eliminate the dividend now, and commit to a gigafactory for 2020 production, they may have a fighting chance, but their stock would drop 20-30% in the short-term.

 

[ggr]

Tesla Model 3: a new silver release candidate spotted – making it at least 5 prototypes

That British Racing Green roadster is great!

 

[PaulRocket]

Nice article on Gigafactory 2 in Buffalo:
David Robinson: As Tesla's focus shifts, so do plans for Buffalo solar factory - The Buffalo News

 

[Reciprocity]

They do it literally every single time they refine them from ore, because the ores are all mixed nickel/cobalt/copper ores. Does that give you a clue as to how developed the processes actually are? I mean, seriously, you could burn it and treat it as high-concentration oxide ore. Not the best way to operate, obviously.


Well, they're the components which *aren't* in the ores, you know, which could cause theoretical difficulty with just converting the whole thing to sulfides or arsenides or oxides and treating it as extremely-high-concentration ore.



All this says is that digging up copper/cobalt/nickel ore is currently cheap. Probably far cheaper than collecting the batteries (and certainly than doing so and building a new refinery designed to work on this higher-concentration material). That's all such claims usually say. If there is a threat of shortages, this dynamic will change very quickly.

Could it be that the recycling plan is to reuse everything but the actual cells? Also, the cells would probably go into storage products before finally being recycled. I would imagine they would need some repackaging, but how much of the original pack is reusable in the energy storage solution?

Have you seen the machine that strips and I phone down and salvages every screw? Maybe they will just reuse every part they can and not break down the cells. At least they don't have to think about that for 20 years as those batteries can have a second life in utility storage.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

This graph shows the shale gas supply growth as well as the second derivative: the rate of growth.

It is important to note the declining rate of growth, despite all the promises of shale. I expect a similar trend in shale oil supply in the coming years.

This is bullish for oil prices, and therefore, for TSLA. The world simply needs Tesla.

 

[22522]

This graph shows the shale gas supply growth as well as the second derivative: the rate of growth.

It is important to note the declining rate of growth, despite all the promises of shale. I expect a similar trend in shale oil supply in the coming years.

This is bullish for oil prices, and therefore, for TSLA. The world simply needs Tesla.



View attachment 227138

Is that just a price response?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Is that just a price response?

No - prices and rig counts actually have been rising since early 2016, and horizontal rig count (which is what matters) has almost fully recovered.

It's unfavorable geology leading to high depletion rates, which then requires a lot of capital to keep production rate up, as well as other limitations.

Very similar, but slightly different cases, in oil and natural gas markets.

 

[DurandalAI]

Regarding Tesla battery recycling, this is from 2011, so it is admittedly dated:
Tesla's Closed Loop Battery Recycling Program

I couldn't find it with a quick Google Fu, but I do recall during one of the calls or presentations that their plans on battery recycling would be more advantageous than more generic recycling as they could reform the amalgam instead of refining it into their constituent components, since they would be using a consistent battery chemistry. I don't know if this still holds true or not. If the mechanical processes of battery disassembly can be automated and made economical, then the refinement of the constituent elements won't be any more cost prohibitive than mining and then refining. The most cost prohibitive portion of recycling is the labor and mechanical actions to prep the materials.

In any event, I would suspect that Tesla is more likely to "reuse" before they "recycle."