ValueAnalyst
Closed
What's your basis for predicting that "it may fall in between the two estimates?"
Contrary to popular belief, Elon's timelines aren't always too optimistic. He had deemed July production start to be impossible, for instance.
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What's your basis for predicting that "it may fall in between the two estimates?"
Contrary to popular belief, Elon's timelines aren't always too optimistic. He had deemed July production start to be impossible, for instance.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
WOW!!! Where will all the tens of billions of market cap that come out of traditional automakers go, I wonderLive blog: German automaker stocks fall sharply on collusion accusations
"
The European Commission could be investigating collusion among Germany's top automakers following a report in Der Spiegel that BMW, Volkswagen, Audi and Porsche may have worked together to fix the prices and designs of diesel emissions treatment systems.
Shares in the automakers are falling to multi-month lows, following on from Friday's losses."
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Yes. He's adding nearly 50k a day. His daily add rate has accelerated consistently in the last few weeks. Expect 20M by year-end.
He needs to retweet Tesla's tweets though. He needs to transition the spotlight from him to the team.
Otherwise Elon have made the same mistake that Steve Jobs did before he passed and Apple lost its shine with him.
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ValueAnalyst
Closed
Every time someone tells me Apple will beat Tesla, I tell them I've been waiting for my new AirPods for two months
DurandalAI
Member
Exactly. I'm going to have to pull out my Disney geek on this one. Large passenger vehicles such as the monorail or the ferries do a good job of moving a large amount of people. Unfortunately, the larger number of people, the slower the load time, and the longer it actually takes. Instead, if you have a system that "eats" people, such as say the "People Mover" which essentially has the cars slow down to a loading speed at the loading/unloading point, then zoom along once they are loaded, it works great. Occasionally there are problems, or they have to slow down the loading substantially for loading of handicapped guests, but as a whole it processes a large amount of people. Other rides such as the haunted mansion are good examples as well, although those vehicles are all tied in one large chain as opposed to being independently transported like on the People Mover.
While it's good to have a devil's advocate to temper our expectations (neroden), we should make sure to not totally discount possible options because we personally can't work past the technical or logistical complexities. Otherwise, we'd still be throwing away rockets into the ocean instead of landing them!
DurandalAI
Member
Out of all the luxury features that I want, cooled seats are certainly in my top 10, if not top 5. In the summer, I put one of those plug-in 12v seat covers that blows air on your butt and back. The A/C works great in my Leaf, but it doesn't matter how great that A/C is, without cooled seat covers, I'm going to be uncomfortable in the summer.
Hopefully they can just have the perforation on the back of the seat and not on the bucket sides, allowing for a return of the air cooled seats.(Or developing easy to replace integrated covers.)
Neroden, i usually agree with you. I seriously suggest you think about the concept of the hyperloop as more of a space rail gun launcher facility. Vacuum tunnel, mag lev, pressurized pods, 8km/s total velocity launch to orbit proof of concept, hiding in plain site. here is a study of something similar Ram Accelerator Direct Space Launch System | Ram Accelerator that could be slitely modified, to launch cargo
Looks like The inconvenient sequel starring Al Gore is out this Friday. Wonder what else is happening.
Nothing more then a guess. I didn't even put more than a few seconds thought into it. It will be interesting to see what happens.
I do feel that Tesla is going to have to do most of the heavy lifting. I don't think the traditional auto manufacturers are going to be much help. Maybe the Chinese?
Krugerrand
Meow
Right? He gets some early timelines wrong, makes adjustments and gets better only to then hit an impossible timeline and still people want to live in the past.
Krugerrand
Meow
I don't know about that. It seems he's often given credit to others.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Can you name one Chinese auto manufacturer with plans to ramp up production as quickly as Tesla, or a supercharger network that is as widespread as Tesla's, or one that more than 10 Americans/Europeans have heard of, or one with any solar production capacity (let alone the production growth that Tesla's is targeting), or one with a 500k waiting list, or one with a design that customers love? I can go on until the dawn.
Listen, I'm not asking you to name a Chinese company with all of these. Just name one with any. Tell me so I can research it. I can't find any.
Krugerrand
Meow
I think other carmakers will have a lot of soul searching to do when Model 3 is out, especially to attract the younger generation
A couple of years ago I had to rent a VW TDI wagon thingy of some sort - drove like a tricycle being ridden by an adult (somebody will understand that analogy). Anyway, I noticed as soon as I got in that the clock had the wrong time. For the life of me I couldn't figure out what buttons/combination of buttons to push to access the clock and change the time. I actually had to Google a You Tube video to figure it out. Most ridiculous non-intuitive thing ever. I will so be looking forward to minimal knobs, dials and buttons in my Model 3.
dc_h
Active Member
I think BYD wants to move as fast. China as a whole is planning on 8%, which is about 2 million by 2020, so the cars are going to come from somewhere.
My money is on Tesla, but sooner or later someone else is going to step up. And that will be great for Tesla as well. That will be when the market says EV's are the future.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
For the record, the goal is 8% by 2018 and 12% by 2020, so closer to 3.5m in 2020, not the 2m that you indicated.
That goal will have to be revised down. It's simply impossible for anyone other than Tesla to significantly ramp up production given that no one else has a Gigafactory and Tesla cannot possibly supply the Chinese market with more than 600k-700k cars in 2020 depending on how quickly they can bring Gigafactories 3, 4, 5, and 6 online.
"sooner or later someone else is going to step up"
This is the mistake that everyone is making. It can't possibly be "sooner" without a Gigafactory (or five) and "later" will have to be defined within the parameters of the auto industry, which is a very slow moving one.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
You keep harping on this. But that is not how reasoning from first principles works. You'll understand this if you look into how Feynman worked. He didn't read the papers already written on whatever problem he thought about; he started fresh and understood things from the basics. First principles. Elon's taking the same approach. He'll be ignorant and slow at first, but as he works things out he'll gain a real understanding and go places you can't imagine. Be patient. Stop fulminating. Just be impressed as he works through realizations that took you years in just a few months or days or minutes.
The only useful purpose you can serve is to draw to our attention when Elon starts saying and doing things that are beyond current understanding and practice. That's when boring becomes really interesting.
I enjoy discussing this with you, but I have posted an unenlightened opinion without much thought behind it.
If you have already done the research (and having read many of your posts, I'm sure you have) could you breakdown the percentage of electric cars you think will be produced in 2025 by:
1. Tesla
2. Traditional incumbents.
3. Chinese and/or newcomers.
If I have done my calculations correctly, Testa could be at a production rate of 32 million vehicles per year in 2025, if they could maintain a staggering 100% growth rate in light vehicle production in addition to all of their other endeavors.
If you give me a little more detail in your rationale, I may be able to tell you what I think is unreasonable or reasonable. It is very possible you could sway me to your side.
The 8-12% NEV policy will result in only 2-3% (~500k-800k passenger vehicles) of China vehicle sales being xEVs. It's not a 1:1 requirement, PHEVs count for 2 credits and BEVs 3-5 based on pack size (current policy drafts weaken some aspects further). Read ICCT's October 2016 policy update on the topic, they do a great job translating the requirements and breaking them down.
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