Superb post @Reciprocity, thank you. After reading your reply to mmd the image of a 100 ton boulder dropping on hapless Wily Coyote came to mind. Calling out his post(s) as drivel was very civil of you.
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Superb post @Reciprocity, thank you. After reading your reply to mmd the image of a 100 ton boulder dropping on hapless Wily Coyote came to mind. Calling out his post(s) as drivel was very civil of you.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
How about a 0% chance of that happening? Elon says, he is 'ramping up' cell production for a handful of microgrid storage projects around Puerto Rico.If there was any plan of producing Model 3 in volume, shouldn't the GF be already 'ramped up'? But here we are after 10 months of beginning of mass production and 18 months of being operational, the GF is still 'ramping up' for a few hundred KWh a month.Looks like the GF needs to have another dozen opening parties to be finally ''ramped up'.
And now, with this statement, we are assured that the cells are going to Puerto Rico, not to M3.
Tesla just unveiled its first battery project in Puerto Rico that will restore power to a children's hospital
It is foolish and presumptuous to assume that the bottleneck to Model 3 production is cell production. But I'm sure you know that.
racer26
Active Member
Somehow record S/X deliveries and an on-original (March 2016)-schedule launch of Model 3 constitutes 'awful' according to Einhorn. Makes sense.
Remember in early August of this year when Einhorn warned about the "markets willingness" to fund the model 3 ramp a week before Tesla easily raised $1.8 Billion from the bond market with favorable terms that surprised a lot of people?
Some promising news on the AP development front, it looks like the first noticeable performance improvements under new AI director Andrej Karpathy have been released. I try to follow all the AP related threads on TMC and this update has gotten some good performance related feedback relative to previous months.
dennis
Model S Plaid
I just saw this on another thread. Any ideas on what it means? I doubt it has anything to do with Model 3.
Reciprocity
Active Member
What the most interesting to me about Einhorn's comments was that assuming this guy is a serious person and a serious investor. He must understand that Elon is prone to hyperbole as much as pretty much every human being on the planet knows Elon is prone to hyperbole. Its only been like 10 years where the landmarks set by Elon are put out there and almost never achieved on time, but almost always achieved in plenty of time to be 5 years early when compared to the rest of the market. Its like he says, Im going to land and relaunch rockets in 6 months and it takes a year.. who the funk cares that it took 6 months longer then he said it would. Einhorn is willing to bet his career on the fact that people are so childish to act like Elon promised this so he must deliver exactly what he promised? Elon is not Santa Claus. But he is as close to magical as we are going to find in this day and age. Again, I dont care how model 3s they ship this month, I care how many they produce in the final weeks of the year as that is the real mile stone. If Elon and Tesla miss it by 6 months, that means they only pulled the model 3 and GF1 mass production forward by a year instead of 1.5 or 2 years. Oh well.. maybe the stock goes down for the next 6 months, but its not going to drop to much because every time it does, Longs average down and shorts cover the massive losses they have suffered over the last 12 months. If im Einhorn and I am betting my reputation, I am looking at what Elon and Tesla HAS delivered over the last 5 years and what the cadence of amazing accomplishments have actually been accomplished. I then extrapolate that over the next 10 years and I make my bets based on that.
I go back to this idea that competition is going to crush Tesla, because its one of the more persistent bear arguments. It seems so logical that a massive company like VW or Diamler or Toyota will crush Tesla once they turn their attention to this tiny nuisance that is Tesla. But that thesis completely ignores all the issues that traditional autos have when moving from ICEv to BEV. First, they must invest real money into new platforms and tech. They must invest in batteries or secure a supply by committing to huge money deals that tie up capital, there is no two ways around that. And what about all of that Cash Burn and what about all the capital tied up in something thats not generating profits? The Bolt is a great example of a very good car that is not profitable. The Nissan leaf which might be profitable, who knows, but is also a great example of decent car that is wholey inadequate as a mass market alternative to ICEv's. And at the end of the day.. If Audi, BMW and MB make BEV versions of all the cars, they wont be taking market share from Tesla. Instead they will be cannibalizing their own profitable platforms for ones that are not profitable for them and wont be for them for 10 years. 94% of Tesla owners are going to buy another Tesla. 50% of Audi/BMW/MB are going to buy a Tesla unless those companies can come out with a truly compelling BEV.. and if they invest $10B doing so, the end result is non profitable cannibalization.
Yes but it’s insulting to those of us who only post real drivel.
Echo great post @Reciprocity, even though I don’t know the details of what you were responding to.
Esme Es Mejor
Member
It’s so crazy to me that shorts & analysts say this with a straight face. If it were true, the Big Three would have crushed Japanese imports in the 70s and 80s. Woolworth’s would have crushed K-Mart, then Walmart, and now Amazon. IBM would have crushed first Microsoft, then Apple. Encyclopedia Britannica would have crushed first Yahoo, then Google. Being an incumbent is a terrible burden during times of change.
Tesla can still fail, either through a failure to execute or an even better upstart, but an incumbent automaker is the least likely threat to Tesla.
I don’t know that answer. But surmise it’s to do with Delphi’s continued attempts to make a compelling car (by 2019 supposedly) -
They are also working with Mobile Eye and have made little progress in 3 years, continuing to spend $s on acquisitions. More groan
larmor
Active Member
Probably, as mentioned previously, due to low volume of cars and miles driven.
Hopefully the 'groan' is because he knows that Tesla is on track for a coast to coast self drive by the end of the year, and they will start rolling out self driving features in the next few months. If that were the case, it would tend to make all this deal making look like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.
Why do you think so?
To me tesla having success with FSD is not going to invalidate other efforts to get there. The alternative explanation of the groan could be that tesla is nowhere close either (egg on face by end of year scenario). But I can't figure it out
If Elon is really under huge stress, he wouldn't respond to that article with a "Groan".
mmd
Active Member
Saw this one yesterday. This original video from last year is a better one. Less non-sense, more useful experiments.
I haven't checked out hyperloop stuff earlier, but it is looking like just a joke Elon pulled on the world.
Or did a younger Elon just come up with that to impress his hostess at the Pando talk?Not surprising that hyperloop is still stuck in a loop where it was few years ago. Forget the cost. Does it even look doable?
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