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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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While problems in Panasonic's battery production are in some ways more serious as they affect Powerpack/Powerwall production as well, they appear to be entirely due to incompetent hires and a flaky grid power supply... both of which should be solvable if Musk makes them his #1 priority.

What indications do you have to conclude that there is a "a flaky grid power supply" in northern Nevada? If the power supply is indeed unstable, could it have anything to do with using electrical resistance heating rather than natural gas for the drying ovens?
 
What indications do you have to conclude that there is a "a flaky grid power supply" in northern Nevada? If the power supply is indeed unstable, could it have anything to do with using electrical resistance heating rather than natural gas for the drying ovens?

Highly doubtful. Electrical resistance heating has a power factor of effectively 1.0. More wattage, sure, but that's easily planned for ahead of time.

Wasn't there something about using heat pumps at GF1 to recover & reuse process heat?
 
Did we get one of those hollow red candles that TT was talking about a couple of weeks ago? Google has open at 319.75 & close at 320.87...

I believe so, but more importantly it's basically a doji that could end up an abandoned baby if nothing awful happens over the weekend (or GS downgrade of $5 on Monday)

bullish_abandoned_baby.gif


Bullish Abandoned Baby
 
What indications do you have to conclude that there is a "a flaky grid power supply" in northern Nevada? If the power supply is indeed unstable, could it have anything to do with using electrical resistance heating rather than natural gas for the drying ovens?
Granted, nothing tangible at all. In fact, nothing beyond that rumor from the random racist guy. But it might fit the narrative. We don't know yet, as Tesla-Bjorn says.
 
Didn't that guy claim the Japanese guys were the problem? I'm slightly more inclined to believe this new report, since I'd be surprised if Panasonic sent incompetent people halfway around the world for a project like GF1...

The guy on electrek is claiming Panasonic's american hires are holding them back, he says the japanese technical people are top notch but don't speak much english so it hard to train unskilled reno workers. He claims to be a low level technical manager for Panasonic, so he only has access to part of the picture there.
 
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Not sure, but a lot of things are happening as of 10/31/2017. Model S and X $1000 referral credit also ends. Maybe some Model S / X news will come out with the earnings call?

EM specifically answered on twitter ( a while back) that non employees would be able to configure end of Oct. Given that they are literally ziltch M3's in Oct so far, and also since S/X inventory is depleted ... do we have a S/X refresh coming along with M3 public release .. in next few days ???

Note: watching portions of
(First In-Depth) .. looking good so far.
No mention of back seat size issues etc as well.

Anyone watch the whole video, comments appreciated
 
Comments showing up on an Electrek post from someone who claims to be employed by Panasonic at the Gigafactory indicate problems with Panasonic's production at the Gigafactory, specifically with lack of competent American hires (he says the Japanese guys are great but many of the Americans they're trying to train are actually breaking things) and unreliable power supply.

These problems are serious, but IMO addressable in a reasonable timeframe if Musk steps in personally. He may have to make Panasonic raise pay in order to get people to move to the godforsaken nowhere where the Gigafactory is, or even build barracks due to a lack of housing in the area. He will probably have to install Powerpacks at the Gigafactory ASAP to stabilize the power supply.

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Oh -- also, I take Musk's personal relocation to the Gigafactory to indicate that any known Fremont problems are currently under control. While problems in Panasonic's battery production are in some ways more serious as they affect Powerpack/Powerwall production as well, they appear to be entirely due to incompetent hires and a flaky grid power supply... both of which should be solvable if Musk makes them his #1 priority.
What Electrek article are these comments in? I would like to read them.

Edit- I found it. This is the same guy from the Australian web site, a few weeks ago.
 
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Reading through all of this guy's recent comments is worthwhile. It doesn't sound good. If this is a scam, it is pretty elaborate.


endeep

Kind of hard to tell how big of a issue Panasonic is really having from his comments though. He said things were going alright when it was just 3-4 lines because they could rob parts from the additional lines but now that they are at 10 operational lines they are running out of parts. But it still implies significant output even if they can't run at max capacity.
 
Reading through all of this guy's recent comments is worthwhile. It doesn't sound good. If this is a scam, it is pretty elaborate.


endeep

I wouldn't put it past those who want Tesla to fail to spend a few hours putting something like this together. That said, it seems a lot more credible than what they usually put out there.

*edit. This individual also seems to go back and forth praising Panasonic and hating Panasonic.
 
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It seems like whatever the nature of the media blackout Tesla had imposed through NDA/FriendDA is lifting? That seems like a good sign. I am very optimistic that this week will be be seen in retrospect to be a major turning point in Model 3 production. I am super excited, despite my current pain related to the options I am holding that are killing me.
Trev & Ken had mentioned that they will not release the video until the first public deliveries (i.e. non-employees). While he hasn't responded to many of us asking if this is the case, I guess we are still pretty close to public deliveries.
 
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Kind of hard to tell how big of a issue Panasonic is really having from his comments though. He said things were going alright when it was just 3-4 lines because they could rob parts from the additional lines but now that they are at 10 operational lines they are running out of parts. But it still implies significant output even if they can't run at max capacity.
I agree. On one hand he makes it sound like battery production is the main holdup with the model 3. But then he implies that they are producing some batteries. It seems like we should be seeing more deliveries if they are producing at even a modest fraction of capacity? I don't know what to think? My hope is that this guy is blinded by his personal frustration to the real, but slow, progress that they are making.

The idea that a great Japanese company would have major difficulties setting up shop in Nevada, due in large part to language and cultural issues, rings true to me.
 
I agree. On one hand he makes it sound like battery production is the main holdup with the model 3. But then he implies that they are producing some batteries. It seems like we should be seeing more deliveries if they are producing at even a modest fraction of capacity? I don't know what to think? My hope is that this guy is blinded by his personal frustration to the real, but slow, progress that they are making.

The idea that a great Japanese company would have major difficulties setting up shop in Nevada, due in large part to language and cultural issues, rings true to me.

It's entirely possible this is only one of the bottlenecks, and not the one that has seemingly stopped all production.

My prime suspect remains the seats.
 
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The idea that a great Japanese company would have major difficulties setting up shop in Nevada, due in large part to language and cultural issues, rings true to me.

There are lots of people, not just mid level production engineers at Panasonic, that think they are fluent in a foreign language and put that in their resume. Then when they move abroad and try to communicate with native speakers they realize they are not fluent.
 
[Q
Comments showing up on an Electrek post from someone who claims to be employed by Panasonic at the Gigafactory indicate problems with Panasonic's production at the Gigafactory, specifically with lack of competent American hires (he says the Japanese guys are great but many of the Americans they're trying to train are actually breaking things) and unreliable power supply.

These problems are serious, but IMO addressable in a reasonable timeframe if Musk steps in personally. He may have to make Panasonic raise pay in order to get people to move to the godforsaken nowhere where the Gigafactory is, or even build barracks due to a lack of housing in the area. He will probably have to install Powerpacks at the Gigafactory ASAP to stabilize the power supply.

----
Oh -- also, I take Musk's personal relocation to the Gigafactory to indicate that any known Fremont problems are currently under control. While problems in Panasonic's battery production are in some ways more serious as they affect Powerpack/Powerwall production as well, they appear to be entirely due to incompetent hires and a flaky grid power supply... both of which should be solvable if Musk makes them his #1 priority.

I found the comments about lack of space the most interesting. I found the gigafactory design lacking in space for all the unexpected stuff that happens.

Panasonic hopefully insisted on the space they need. They will figure out the people problems. They can always bring in more Japanese employees if needed.
 
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