2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[sundaymorning]

Yep, 73 is his highest score ever (for an $850K+ car that now goes for $1.7M used(!)) so obviously he didn't get the memo on grade inflation.

He is also as nitpicky about the Model 3 as anyone I have seen on TMC (does anyone really care that much about the steering wheel?) but his few complaints are more than outweighed by his enthusiasm for all of the pluses, which resulted in a very high overall rating.

That’s the nature of the business. You need to critique and be critical, otherwise you’re not doing your job. So find that one imperfect spot, a screw, a piece of hair, a piece of dirt/stain, a fingerprint, a non existent cup holder and magnify it 100x, then blow it up, OCD over it, let viewers/readers get a 30 minute earful of how important, how life changing that one cup holder could be to the driver. How irritated you are, never mind the level 2 autonomous feature, this is a cup holder we’re talking about. The cup holder isnt just a cup holder for Pete’s sake, it’s a life saver, a place where your medication could be stored, hence it’s really a mini medicine cabinet. It’s a place where you can drop your change, hence it’s a piggy bank... who needs Wells Fargo when you have a portable cup holder? Hence, it’s an ATM..

Keep yappin’, keep talking and pretend like youre irate over this one feature. Now you’re beginning to master the art of being a great “critique”. But wait, there’s more, if you’re Consumer Reports, then you wait until the stock is down, or at near ATH, then you let loose, you’ve changed your mind, the score is actually too high, let’s critique it some more. This is the best selling luxury sedan in the US of A we’re talking about, it attracts more click bait than the entirety of seeking alpha combine, just by mentioning Tesla....this is your chance to really spit some of your critiquing knowledge. Since the car doesn’t have an engine, let’s pick on the door handles! Yes, these things are so bad, OMG, it’s not an easy fix when it breaks down, I mean an overheated radiator might be more expensive to fix, but we’re talking about a door handle here.. handles are meant to last forever. Why would a handle break down? I mean I can understand if the transmission failed and cost $5k to replace but handles are well, suppose to last forever. Come on Tesla, you’re killing me here, this is a luxury sedan we’re talking about. It’s not luxury when you have to open your own door, oh wait, the doors on the X open by themselves? What I meant to say was, it’s not luxury if you don’t have someone opening doors for you, as in having a butler opening your car doors.... and since the X doors opens on its own, you can’t “look luxurious” getting in and out of the vehicle, therefore, it’s not a luxury Crossover....

Next weeks edition, we will critique Tesla’s lack of buttons..

 

[mmd]

A mere $8b ? Where did the other $2b go

Why, it mostly went to short sellers' pockets.
~27.5M short shares * $60 dip = ~$1.6B
But that's peanuts to the $11.7B lost by TSLA longs.

Nothing to worry. Tesla sell side says, just buy the dip. We don't want to miss the rally, do we?
I am keeping my hope alive, to reload my position again when it reaches $350+.
UPDATE: Tesla shares close below $300, their lowest in six months

Tesla "has the talent to fix its manufacturing issues," analysts at Baird said in a note Thursday. The analyst team, led by Ben Kallo, is known for making the stock its top pick for 2017 (Here’s why Tesla is Baird’s top stock-market pick for 2017).

The company should hit its targets of producing several thousand Model 3s a week by year's end and get to about 5,000 a week by the end of next year's first quarter, they said.

"We view this as a core growth stock, and would use weakness as a buying opportunity," added the Baird analysts, who have a rating of "outperform," or buy, on the stock, as well as a price target of $411, implying a rally of about 36% from current prices and among the highest on the Street, according to estimates compiled by FactSet.

 

[sweter]

That’s the nature of the business. You need to critique and be critical, otherwise you’re not doing your job. So find that one imperfect spot, a screw, a piece of hair, a piece of dirt/stain, a fingerprint, a non existent cup holder and magnify it 100x, then blow it up, OCD over it, let viewers/readers get a 30 minute earful of how important, how life changing that one cup holder could be to the driver. How irritated you are, never mind the level 2 autonomous feature, this is a cup holder we’re talking about. The cup holder isnt just a cup holder for Pete’s sake, it’s a life saver, a place where your medication could be stored, hence it’s really a mini medicine cabinet. It’s a place where you can drop your change, hence it’s a piggy bank... who needs Wells Fargo when you have a portable cup holder? Hence, it’s an ATM..

Keep yappin’, keep talking and pretend like youre irate over this one feature. Now you’re beginning to master the art of being a great “critique”. But wait, there’s more, if you’re Consumer Reports, then you wait until the stock is down, or at near ATH, then you let loose, you’ve changed your mind, the score is actually too high, let’s critique it some more. This is the best selling luxury sedan in the US of A we’re talking about, it attracts more click bait than the entirety of seeking alpha combine, just by mentioning Tesla....this is your chance to really spit some of your critiquing knowledge. Since the car doesn’t have an engine, let’s pick on the door handles! Yes, these things are so bad, OMG, it’s not an easy fix when it breaks down, I mean an overheated radiator might be more expensive to fix, but we’re talking about a door handle here.. handles are meant to last forever. Why would a handle break down? I mean I can understand if the transmission failed and cost $5k to replace but handles are well, suppose to last forever. Come on Tesla, you’re killing me here, this is a luxury sedan we’re talking about. It’s not luxury when you have to open your own door, oh wait, the doors on the X open by themselves? What I meant to say was, it’s not luxury if you don’t have someone opening doors for you, as in having a butler opening your car doors.... and since the X doors opens on its own, you can’t “look luxurious” getting in and out of the vehicle, therefore, it’s not a luxury Crossover....

Next weeks edition, we will critique Tesla’s lack of buttons..

Dude, did you even watch the video?

 

[Runarbt]

UPDATE: Tesla shares close below $300, their lowest in six months

Whats the point with a link to last weeks close? We are stable above this, and on the way up again. ;-)

Might we call this the mmd bottom then? Similar to the spiegel bottom at $180?

 

[jackdillio]

Whats the point with a link to last weeks close? We are stable above this, and on the way up again. ;-)

Might we call this the mmd bottom then? Similar to the spiegel bottom at $180?

tsla has stabilized at 300. it has no nowhere to go but the up direction. easy money
i have already doubled down yesterday and will be adding more soon or later. investors dont care about the bottlenecks, they see through it knowing tesla will fix it. once tesla reaches 350, 400 will be a drop in a bucket. ez $$

 

[myusername]

Whats the point with a link to last weeks close? We are stable above this, and on the way up again. ;-)

Might we call this the mmd bottom then? Similar to the spiegel bottom at $180?

I think we might need to call this the @Runarbt top... you spoke too soon... $8 drop in pre-market just now to $294... downgrade?... of course it recovers to $296.000000 .

might I elaborate with a chart?

ok... this is a 5 year daily w/ a double top pattern... neckline at $303... notice where we close yesterday?... that would be considered a recovery back to it... if this pattern pans out... then a test of the $285 tops will happen soon with a target of $240... unless the bottom is actually $180.

 

[Reciprocity]

Why, it mostly went to short sellers' pockets.
~27.5M short shares * $60 dip = ~$1.6B
But that's peanuts to the $11.7B lost by TSLA longs.

Nothing to worry. Tesla sell side says, just buy the dip. We don't want to miss the rally, do we?
I am keeping my hope alive, to reload my position again when it reaches $350+.
UPDATE: Tesla shares close below $300, their lowest in six months

Did you mean to say that Tesla longs are only up $25B over the last year vs shorts with $4B in mark to market losses over the last year? Asking for a friend, I'll take your answer off line because everyone has you on ignore. Probably because you're math is as flawed as your logic.

Edit: oh I get it now, you don't know the difference between a long position.. buy and hold.. And a short position.. how cute.

 

[elasalle]

Tesla Shares Set to Rebound Short Term After Miserable Stretch

 

[jackdillio]

i agreed with you 1000%. stock will automatically goes up by just saying the word "tesla".. it is america's favorite brand (or soon to be) i am expecting tesla to close up strongly today. ez cash

 

[JRP3]

I thought this was interesting, though not significant. Tesla knew about Dyson's EV plans a few years ago.
Tesla Learned About Dyson’s Secret Car Plans Two Years Early

 

[Krugerrand]

If he actually meant what he said I guessed the suggestion is that the Chinese factory would structurally resemble Tilburg. I was surprised mostly because I imagined this would be much more ambitious. Maybe we'll see more announcements of other facilities in China.

It probably is much more ambitious they just aren’t saying because you know why. Don’t act surprised if/when it appears Tesla/Elon become conservative; that’s what people are screaming for all over the Internet. Can’t have it both ways for either side unless of course one is a hater all day long.

 

[Bet TSLA]

i agreed with you 1000%. stock will automatically goes up by just saying the word "tesla".. it is america's favorite brand (or soon to be) i am expecting tesla to close up strongly today. ez cash

Please take the mindless cheerleading elsewhere.

 

[elasalle]

Might seem like cheerleading to you, just trying to negate the FUD

 

[doctoxics]

Trying to understand what Elon said about battery module production in the conference call. Hard to hear because he had a cold. So, here goes what I think he said or might have meant.

The problem now with the Model 3 ramp is battery module production at Gigafactory 1. There are 4 zones to module production. Zones 3 and 4 are in good shape; Zones 1 and 2 are not, especially Zone 2. They had to redo the software for Zone 2. Took 4 weeks. Software is no longer the limiting factor. Electrical/mechanical is now the limiting factor. They have to rebuild Zone 2 (and Zone 1). This involves removing and rebuilding the mechanical elements of Zone 2 (and redoing the electrical). Will take time.

Currently, there are 3 Lines of module production with the inadequate Zones 1 and 2. A new fourth Line has been designed and will be as fast as Lines 1-3 combined. Seems Elon was confident that the sum of the four Lines would provide the 10,000 cars/week rate. He and JB are on the Lines addressing the rebuilding of Zones 1 and 2. When the Lines have been rebuilt, Tesla will ramp Model 3 production to the next limiting factor. Since there are now to be 4 Lines, the next phase of the ramp may be in steps as each Line becomes operable. We may already have one of the original lines operating since Elon said the ramp is currently ongoing and higher VINs are appearing.

 

[Intl Professor]

Food, er, Catalyst for Thought

Given Hawking/Musk/Others concern about AI, what is DAP for AI?

Scientists May Have Found Missing Link Chemical That Led To Life On Earth

 

[mspohr]

Good long article on Tesla (but high FUD content).

"In that way, he has led the industry to the start of a new era. And now his company, hindered by debilitating manufacturing bottlenecks and its extravagant promises of self-driving, is poised to find out whether, in laying the groundwork for an electric and autonomous future, he took one risk too many."

Tesla’s Dangerous Sprint Into the Future

 

[jbcarioca]

Might seem like cheerleading to you, just trying to negate the FUD

Truthfully, at least here one negates FUD with facts. We react badly to simplistic positive comments just as we do to simplistic negative ones.
Anyway I hope we do.

 

[Gerardf]

New World Of Oil (Edition 2017) was just published.
OPEC : World Oil Outlook

Has WOO has the OPEC outlook for developments until 2040.

Not really looked into it yet (it is 360 pages) but awareness of BEV has grown :
- Many more hits on keyword BEV (25 hits)
- Tesla is mentioned (Model-S and Model-3)

Still very conservative IMHO, but even OPEC now sees there is no escape :

" Focusing on the penetration of EVs in the passenger car segment, an alternative sensitivity has been developed: the Sensitivity Case. In this sensitivity, a more optimistic view is taken on the penetration of EVs. Globally, it is assumed that annual EV sales reach 80 million by 2040 (Figure 7.4). This would mean that three out of every five cars sold in 2040 would be electric. In regions such as OECD Europe, OECD America, China and India, it is assumed that two out of every three passenger cars sold would be electric by 2040.
Under this sensitivity, there would be 516 million EVs on the road at the end of the forecast period. While it is interesting to analyze how oil demand would be impacted in this sensitivity, it is highly unlikely that EVs will penetrate the passenger car segment with this strength in less than 24 years. The level of investment, in terms of both the replacement of car fleet and the expansion of required infrastructure, as well as the required government support, would be rather prohibiting. Nevertheless, several countries have publicly stated their intention to achieve an even higher share of EVs in new sales than assumed in the Sensitivity Case. This is especially the case of Europe, with the UK, France, the Netherlands and Austria, among others, targeting 100% of new sales from EVs in various time horizons."

It is always interesting to compare with earlier WOO reports (They can be found in the archive here : OPEC : World Oil Outlook Archive )

 

[hobbes]

European deliveries for Oct are looking good, first month of each quarter in 2017:
1453/946/1096/1461+ (Luxembourg still missing).

 

[RobStark]

Europeans Slowly Fall Victim to Pickup Truck Fever