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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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1) Alien Dreadnaught is a nonexistent solution to a nonexistent problem. Fodder for the naive.
2) Mobileye invented autopilot, Musk took credit for a while.
3) I have no idea how FWD apply to what I said. Deciding to put resources towards modifying a gull wing door design is a marketing decision.

1) Well you dont just fart out an Alien Dreadnought, you have to incrementally build out the capability. As stated by Elon, Tesla is working v0.5. My point was, that no one else is even trying for more and faster automation.
2) Really, what other vehicle does Modileye have autopilot features enabled for?
3) Just an example of things that no one else would even try. The point is that Tesla will not quit. Ever.
 
1 - Pricing depends much more on the volume of each individual part rather than the aggregate volume with a particular supplier.
2 - There are many parts to the production of the Model 3 - batteries and motors in Reno, individual components in Lathrop, Fremont and elsewhere, and body-in-white, paint shop and final assembly in Fremont. Elon pointed out on the most recent CC that a number of areas are already capable of 10K/week. They will determine where the bottlenecks are to get to 10K as they ramp up to 5K.
3 - The Model 3 weighs less than 100 lbs. more than a 320i
1- Yes I still generally agree that any savings you are going to get are going to be in that area. The only real negative right now is that although they might have projected for 500k/yr volumes, they aren't there yet, and won't be getting 500k/yr volume pricing until they are at 500k/yr volume.
2 - Yes, but. It really doesn't do much to have certain stations on an assembly line so much more capable than others. It is very difficult to take an assembly line, split it off in several areas, and then join back together. In particular, they talked about 1000/day rates. This is particularly unhelpful. If you can do 7000/week on some stations, and your goal is 10000/week total, do you duplicate that station and have extra capacity (14k/week), or do you design a different station that is only 3k/week, requiring different design,etc? It just doesn't do much good to have "almost". You either have what you need or you don't.
3 - not for comparable range.
 
1) Alien Dreadnaught is a nonexistent solution to a nonexistent problem. Fodder for the naive.

Have you seen the video of robots installing two front seats at once? What about installing the instrument panel? These are AD advancements.

Instead of hourly wages and variable speed/ quality. Tesla has fixed cost, 24/7 (-maintenance) operation and full repeatability. In addition, the robots can be sped up to the limit of the structure/ motor power reliably. You can't dial people up and get a 20% speed increase.

The problems they are solving are:
Cost per vehicle to assemble (efficiency)
Maximizing vehicle output on a single line (efficiency)
Reducing warranty/ quality issue due to full monitoring/control (cost savings)
Eliminating variability

If an OEM does not consider these problems, then they are not trying to grow past the limit of their current technology.
 
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It is not good to presuppose motive. In fact I don't get to deduct my CA state taxes because I am subject to the alternative minimum tax which only allows for charitable and mortgage interest deductions (sound familiar?). But my taxes will go up under the proposed plan because the alt min rate of 28% is going away and some of my income would be subject to the 35% rate.

As far as conflating separate issues, I was attempting to point out that rather than individuals in the low tax rate states subsidizing those in the high tax rate states the opposite is true based on where the Federal government chooses to spend the tax dollars it collects.
If the currently posited Senate plan goes through my US taxes will rise by more than 200%. Long story, but, US citizens with dual residency in US and foreign country get royally screwed in the draft Senate plan. I'll wait until when/if something actually is enacted before panicking. FATCA is bad enough, but dual citizens have no problem.
Bluntly, the State by State and other jurisdictional discrepancies have quite a few variables and no solution will favour people without political clout.

translation: in the Senate the lower the population of your State and more of party in control the better deal you'll get, other things remaining equal. Alaska/Wyoming, et al win!
in the House, more complex. The higher your State population and more skewed to party in control the better you are. Texas rules!
Entitlements have been the big swing factor with Federal Installations a close second. The current situation should hold Texas, Alaska and Wyoming in a happy state. Oops, West Virginia- so long as the current US President is and Wilbur Ross doesn't get indicted.
 
It is not good to presuppose motive. In fact I don't get to deduct my CA state taxes because I am subject to the alternative minimum tax which only allows for charitable and mortgage interest deductions (sound familiar?). But my taxes will go up under the proposed plan because the alt min rate of 28% is going away and some of my income would be subject to the 35% rate.

As far as conflating separate issues, I was attempting to point out that rather than individuals in the low tax rate states subsidizing those in the high tax rate states the opposite is true based on where the Federal government chooses to spend the tax dollars it collects.
I hear you. AMT is an evil thing too, in my opinion. Politics is an area where my apathy is pretty much overwhelming. I can't broadly defend any party, and won't try.
 
Have you seen the video of robots installing two front seats at once? What about installing the instrument panel? These are AD advancements.

Instead of hourly wages and variable speed/ quality. Tesla has fixed cost, 24/7 (-maintenance) operation and full repeatability. In addition, the robots can be sped up to the limit of the structure/ motor power reliably. You can't dial people up and get a 20% speed increase.

The problems they are solving are:
Cost per vehicle to assemble (efficiency)
Maximizing vehicle output on a single line (efficiency)
Reducing warranty/ quality issue due to full monitoring/control (cost savings)
Eliminating variability

If an OEM does not consider these problems, then they are not trying to grow past the limit of their current technology.
To add to this, the AD issue is also about removing the slowest step in the entire process, ie removing the human from the entire line- so flesh this part out: remove humans carting supplies to the line, humans moving sub assemblies from creation of sub assembly to main line, moving the finished car from the line and parking it/storing it, and more-- please if any one is familiar with automation chime in here.
 
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I haven't run numbers recently but when I last did ICE costs for Engine, and Transmission were typically around 40% of the total cost. Back then that relationship tended to hold pretty much across price points. It may have changed.

I'll wager that the costs for battery and motors are right now in a similar place for Tesla, probably higher for others.
Tesla prices are likely to be higher than those of the major auto companies, party due to volumes and partly due to long established processes. Dealing with Tesla is certainly not as easy as it is with GM, for example.

Its not just the powertrain. Its all the design decisions that led to the Model 3 having zero buttons on the dash. How much less is the Tesla Model 3 dash to make compared to a C-class? How much faster can it be installed? Just one example on why the margin comparison is difficult.
 
If the Republicans were really interested in lower taxes for the middle class they would take away the capital gains treatment for carried interest which Trump claimed he would get rid of. This benefits the super-rich hedge fund managers, private equity partners and venture capitalists. They would also keep the estate tax in place which affects only the richest 0.2% of Americans.

Instead they are limiting the state and local tax deductions which hurts middle class voters in Democratic states like CA and NY. Families in those states making $100K-$250K will see their Federal taxes rise under the proposed plan. Meanwhile Trump's billionaire buddies enjoy their tax breaks.
You do realize that those people are considered filthy rich in the real world , don’t you?
 
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Its not just the powertrain. Its all the design decisions that led to the Model 3 having zero buttons on the dash. How much less is the Tesla Model 3 dash to make compared to a C-class? How much faster can it be installed? Just one example on why the margin comparison is difficult.
True. The last two times I was through such analyses they were for vehicles about to be launched as new brands. Both are well established today, so the analysis was a couple decades old. Other things remaining equal, the marginal cost of a Model 3-style display will be far cheaper than the 'steam gauges' of more typical vehicles, but teh capital cost for Tesla will be higher. That same relationship probably will hold for a wide variety of control systems. I'll speculate that the ECU and control hardware will be more costly than will the Tesla inverters and associated controls. In another arena the Tesla BMS is basically another automotive air conditioner so only the sensors will really differ much.

Without some very detailed parts ID and sourcing data it's only speculation. There is enough detail in Tesla parts manuals to do a good comparison for third-party sourced parts, of course, but it will still be pure wag for the ones that really costs, cells, battery pack, inverters/controllers and motors. If we had those costs we'd not have a problem.;)
 
You do realize that those people are considered filthy rich in the real world , don’t you?
Unless, of course, the real world includes the vast majority of college educated people who live in major SMSA's almost anywhere on any US coast or major cities anywhere else in the USA...or Jackson Hole, Park City and so on.
 
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You do realize that those people are considered filthy rich in the real world , don’t you?
Yes, his point is to take away the tax incentives from the filthy rich so that they can be redistributed to those who are not because those filthy rich people didnt earn it.
Let us be fair.

Snerruc lives in a City that has 2.9% of the households having income above $150,000. That also is a State that has no income tax, and a city with relatively inexpensive housing. In that context, $250,000 is filthy rich.

From our narrow Tesla perspective that is interesting too. Somebody who lives in Palm City with an income of $200,000 can easily buy a Tesla S or X. Somebody in zip code 10014, for example, would not be able to afford a car, probably not even a decent apartment. It's is for that reason that complex credit arrangements use disposable income, that tends to equalise things according to buying power.
 
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Perfect example. For Tesla to get improvement, you believe Tesla employes multiple teams to do things that others just outsource. If some random seat builder in Slovenia goes under trying to innovate seat making in a flawed way, BMW won't even know about it. If they succeed, they reap the benefits from the lower cost and/or better price. To get a similar benefit, Tesla must bear the cost themselves, and if it doesn't succeed, they don't get any benefit, just cost.

Random seat supplier in Slovenia has no where near the economies of scale to be competitive.

There are five seat suppliers that have 90% plus global market share.

  • Faurecia SA
  • Adient Plc
  • Lear Corporation
  • Toyota Boshoku Corporation
  • TS Tech Co., Ltd
They operate more like an oligoploly than thousands of widget manufactures competing intensely in a free open market. Transmissions are in a similar situation. Which is why GM and Ford decided to collaborate on a 9 speed transmission for front wheel drive vehicles and a 10 speed transmission for rear wheel drive vehicles. Smith and Hayek are nice for classroom study. Not so much in the real world.

BTW As an example of more conolidation. Adient, formerly a division of Johnson Controls, purchased Tesla seat supplier Futuris.
 
Perfect example. For Tesla to get improvement, you believe Tesla employes multiple teams to do things that others just outsource. If some random seat builder in Slovenia goes under trying to innovate seat making in a flawed way, BMW won't even know about it. If they succeed, they reap the benefits from the lower cost and/or better price. To get a similar benefit, Tesla must bear the cost themselves, and if it doesn't succeed, they don't get any benefit, just cost.

You’re wrong. Failure to succeed most definitely has a benefit. If fact it can have several benefits none of them inherently ‘bad’.

BMW is free to be a vulturous company benefiting from other’s hard work and not giving a damn if one fails trying to fatten BMW. Tesla (and SpaceX and TE and TS...) are showing there’s another, better way. It’s long overdue for the world to be a community and understand that by helping each other we strengthen everyone.
 
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Random seat supplier in Slovenia has no where near the economies of scale to be competitive.

There are five seat suppliers that have 90% plus global market share.

  • Faurecia SA
  • Adient Plc
  • Lear Corporation
  • Toyota Boshoku Corporation
  • TS Tech Co., Ltd
They operate more like an oligoploly than thousands of widget manufactures competing intensely in a free open market. Transmissions are in a similar situation. Which is why GM and Ford decided to collaborate on a 9 speed transmission for front wheel drive vehicles and a 10 speed transmission for rear wheel drive vehicles. Smith and Hayek are nice for classroom study. Not so much in the real world.

BTW As an example of more conolidation. Adient, formerly a division of Johnson Controls, purchased Tesla seat supplier Futuris.
First of all, I only chose seats because I was tired of referring to widgets. However, your example is perfect. First, that 10% not held by the big 5 is an array of small companies trying to innovate like crazy to be a big boy. Second, the fact that there are 5 large companies focused like lasers on making seats means they are going to be pretty darned good at it, more than likely. So my upstart in Slovenia can't be competitive, even though one innovation that gives it an advantage opens up a market for 10s of millions of parts per year, while Esla can bring it completely in house, has only one customer, but yet they are going to lead the pack in innovation and efficiency?
 
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