There is no evidence that his funds outperform comparable investments. You would think he could use his ability to predict the future to make money for his clients.
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There is no evidence that his funds outperform comparable investments. You would think he could use his ability to predict the future to make money for his clients.
I believe you so hard I won't even ask for proof.
(But I do see what you mean.)
Waiting4M3
Active Member
My 2 cents on TE:
From demand side I'm not sure how many people who don't already have or plan to have solar are signing up for PW. Also integration of PW with myriad solar providers is not cheap/easy. I think Elon saw this and was a contributing factor in buying Solar City so they can consolidate sale/installation/integration. However, the lease model at SC tend to attract people who don't want to pay lots of $ upfront, the exact opposite of what you want to be able to upsell PW, and the effort to consolidate isn't paying off. To fix that they need to
1) move SC away from leasing to get more customers with more upfront cash
2) add higher end offering like solar roof where buyers are willing to pay for the value add of PW. Then over time TE can move down market as they ramp up production and margin, similar to Tesla auto.
From the production side, although TE and TA cells use different chemistries, the machinery on Panasonic side that make the cells is probably shared, just using different recipes. I suspect Tesla is using TE cells to hedge the unpredictability of M3 cell demand to keep Panasonic production rate stable. As long as M3 ramp is still in flux, PW availability will be unpredictable. The only exceptions are the "halo" projects like Australia and Puerto Rico, where Tesla must deliver, I think those factored in why Tesla brought in Samsung for Australia.
Maybe by mid 2018, when M3 production ramp is done, and the cell supply side becomes more predictable with higher volume/margin, and solar roof is out driving demand, then Tesla will start selling TE products in earnest.
From demand side I'm not sure how many people who don't already have or plan to have solar are signing up for PW. Also integration of PW with myriad solar providers is not cheap/easy. I think Elon saw this and was a contributing factor in buying Solar City so they can consolidate sale/installation/integration. However, the lease model at SC tend to attract people who don't want to pay lots of $ upfront, the exact opposite of what you want to be able to upsell PW, and the effort to consolidate isn't paying off. To fix that they need to
1) move SC away from leasing to get more customers with more upfront cash
2) add higher end offering like solar roof where buyers are willing to pay for the value add of PW. Then over time TE can move down market as they ramp up production and margin, similar to Tesla auto.
From the production side, although TE and TA cells use different chemistries, the machinery on Panasonic side that make the cells is probably shared, just using different recipes. I suspect Tesla is using TE cells to hedge the unpredictability of M3 cell demand to keep Panasonic production rate stable. As long as M3 ramp is still in flux, PW availability will be unpredictable. The only exceptions are the "halo" projects like Australia and Puerto Rico, where Tesla must deliver, I think those factored in why Tesla brought in Samsung for Australia.
Maybe by mid 2018, when M3 production ramp is done, and the cell supply side becomes more predictable with higher volume/margin, and solar roof is out driving demand, then Tesla will start selling TE products in earnest.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Dennisj00
Member
Has anyone seen Jackdillio today? Unless the SP jumps 45-48 in the next 15 minutes or so, his Friday 350 prediction must have been too much wacky weed!
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I am dead certain there are fixed costs hiding in the "cost of goods sold" there.
This is a nasty accounting habit, which is misleading and unhelpful to understanding what's actually going on. Tesla is not stupid: they are selling their batteries for more than their ongoing variable costs.
In addition there may be revenue recognition timing issues. These bedeviled SolarCity to the point where very few people could understand their business. If any of the energy storage sales are paid for in any way other than "100% cash up front", and if Tesla is considered to have residual obligations with respect to them, you're going to see revenue recognition timing issues, where the costs for a system are booked this quarter and the revenue in a future quarter. Accrual accounting is supposed to straighten this out, but the way it's actually applied, it really does not. (This is supposed to change with the new GAAP revenue recognition model.) This represents a cash flow issue, not a profit and loss issue, but it screws with the reported profit and loss numbers pretty regularly. Which is irritating. There isn't enough detail in the reports to tell how much of this is going on.
Did the stationary storage business ramp up way slower than I would have liked? Yes.
P.S. Bluntly, I think Tesla had unpublicized production problems on the PowerPacks and Powerwalls. Schonelucht is spreading the unlikely conspiracy theory that they "lose money on every battery sold", which is ridiculous.
I think they had problems with mass production, which would be unsurprising given the number of other problems they've had getting to mass production (do I have to list them again?). I suppose if they never solve those problems then it would be a permanent problem (can't make enough volume to overcome the fixed costs), but this is the sort of problem they seem to be good at solving.
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I believe you so hard I won't even ask for proof.
To rephrase Rousseau's famous dictum, "Everywhere man is born free, but everywhere he is looking for chains, that is to say, certainty." I think we all are victims of this human frailty. In distinguishing the greys of the political spectrum, the tails are a white (all colors of the spectrum) where total freedom, anarchy, creativity are to be found, and on the right where certainty, dogma, death and nihilism are to be found in total black (the absence of color). We are all somewhere in between and the median is constantly shifting with time. I'm not at all sure it's a Boltzmann distribution but I've been corrupted by Taleb's Black Swan.
By world standards the American voter is clearly to the right but that is changing more rapidly than we deserve to expect with every trampling of democracy. In the rest of the developed world public educational standards are higher along with consequent upward mobility giving more hope for the young. In the less developed world the challenges of poverty make for two kinds of leaders: despots or Francis look-a-likes who all too often end up as victims on the cross of greed and certainty.
Because it's illegal to do otherwise. I happen to know railroad regulation. Bad example. Try again.
(Berkshire Hathaway actually does do a lot of so-called "bolt-on" acquisitions, which are actual attempts at vertical or horizontal integration or creation of monopolies.)
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Apparently you've never bought a car from another manufacturer (...or maybe you only buy from Toyota, where nothing ever breaks). I've had plenty of similarly HORRIBLE failures in ICE cars. We had four *axles* fail on an Audi. Did the manufacturer supply an improved part as a replacement part? Nope. They supplied the same part which broke the first time.
This is standard practice. Tesla is aggressively innovating. So much for the claim that suppliers would innovate faster than in-house engineers; it's just not true.
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Not only that but...
Most of the ICE innovation has been to meet increasingly strict pollution and efficiency regulations. The side effects have produced higher performance. Reliability too is better. IIRC the worst reliability of a US vehicle in 2915 was better than the best of 1995. Just drive anything from 1995 2015 back to back.
FWIW the least reliable car I ever owned was a BMW M3 convertible. Every maker has had duds. The only one that I know has improved vehicles after they were purchased is Tesla, at least recently. Both the NSU RO80 and Mazda R100 that I owned had mechanical improvements after I bought them. Of course they were Wankels before anybody had a clue about seals. I know of no other such examples.
There is a podcast call "Adventures in Finance" and recently they had Mark Spiegel give the bear case:
Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast: 40 - Electric Shock: The Shifting Sands Beneath Elon Musk & Tesla
The podcast is now looking for a listener to provide a rebuttal and present the bull case....
Anyone listened to this? Any comments?
Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast: 40 - Electric Shock: The Shifting Sands Beneath Elon Musk & Tesla
The podcast is now looking for a listener to provide a rebuttal and present the bull case....
Anyone listened to this? Any comments?
Uhh. I think this conversation is at a cross-stalk. You lost me somewhere early.
What I jokingly quoted was Bobfitz saying there is more extreme right-wing in the right-wing than in the left -- and who am I to disagree?
Anyway, it's a dark, stormy night so my judgment may be clouded too. It's just an interview of Mark B. Spiegel. He's an idiot.
dc_h
Active Member
Someone recently posted the original gigafactory construction schedule. Optimistic projections not withstanding, the gigafactory is basically on target. Short term, they definitely need to start delivering faster for auto and energy. We will see about margins when they are selling batteries for 10,000 cars or more a month and making real energy volumes. They need to be making a S Australia side project volume of batteries every month soon and a GW of storage for TE every month early next year.
Uhh. I think this conversation is at a cross-stalk. You lost me somewhere early.
What I jokingly quoted was Bobfitz saying there is more extreme right-wing in the right-wing than in the left -- and who am I to disagree?
I hoped his quote, which I like and totally agree with, was quoted with your response. Totally agree with you, although it is a light rain and overcast afternoon here in cloudy California. Now I need a nap. Best to you in Smogen. (Too tired to umlaut.)
I posted this in the Tesla Semi thread, but it may bear repeating here.
Ark Invest - Nov 8: EV Semi Trucks to Take Share From Traditional Long-Hail Diesel Trucks
Ark Invest - Nov 8: EV Semi Trucks to Take Share From Traditional Long-Hail Diesel Trucks
I disagree with this. (The concept, not either poster per se).
I’m of the opinion that the extreme in reference, is a head fake to what will eventually be recognized:
Left and Right are socio-political labels between (skipping more nuanced detail for this discussion) individualism and communal preferences in policy and human interaction. A rightfully fluctuating balance between them.
What’s happening today is an insult to both of those (Right and Left) and has no associative relationship to either.
Instead we should focus on the assault of our common values by those ignoring or justifying behaviors in offense to all of us.
We are currently mis-identifying the enemy, and that civil war between Left and Right is precisely what’s providing the space for its existence. It will resolve in the end, but many will be hurt by the inevitable process of this human interaction.
Meanwhile AI machines (created by a tree branch of human evolution) continue to outpace our ability to frame the human problem. Perhaps it’s best they take over the mess after all.
Part of the answer to THAT, and which path serves Humanity best, will be determined by our willingness to accept (current)behavior from those co-opting ‘Right’ for their own advantage, in turn, corrupting ALL of our own morality.
k-
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
This will hurt. Not sure if it is paid fossil fuel direct attack or what. I just find it hard to believe that Tesla would display poor workmanship. The M3 I saw around the 26th of September was anything but a typical shining example of Tesla craftsmanship at its finest. I did not drive the car, but everything fit together nicely, and appeared professionally constructed.
Uh oh, an analyst drove a Tesla Model 3 and he found a bunch of problems with it
Also, the video we had recently revealed absolutely no flaws.
Again I question the author of this article associated with Bernstein.
Tesla is at the mercy of unforeseen delays, providing shark bait for the enemy.
Uh oh, an analyst drove a Tesla Model 3 and he found a bunch of problems with it
Also, the video we had recently revealed absolutely no flaws.
Again I question the author of this article associated with Bernstein.
Tesla is at the mercy of unforeseen delays, providing shark bait for the enemy.
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