2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[mmd]

I am replying to MMD, who wrote something ' interesting' (and a lot of 'other stuff').

In a long post his main defense (I quote : "my core point raised") seems to be: What if Tesla is telling lies about the specification of the Semi and it does not work. For me the 'interesting' part is to to get confirmation that already the only real argument against the Tesla semi left is hoping & praying that Tesla is telling lies about its specification. I think MMD is not alone in that, the same hoping & praying might already be going on in the board rooms of other truck makers.

However it also means MMD insinuates Tesla is telling lies in both official public presentations and on their website. Such position makes any discussion useless. Actually such is libelous. Maybe MMD wants to go there in reaching for last straws, but I will not.

So I write the rest mainly for the other readers here.

For starters, I was not comparing Toyota and Nikola Semi's to other Diesel trucks, but to the Tesla Semi,. I will stick to that, as I have no interest in comparing non-Tesla products with Diesel trucks, at least not on this Tesla forum.

- MMD complains that we do not know some key-specs of the Tesla-Semi, like the maximum power. Lets make an educated guess.
Tesla-Semi has 4 model-3 motors, these are 258 HP each. In the truck Tesla probably pushes it a bit further, but it is well over 1.000 HP anyway. Further on in this post I refer to a source that comes to the same conclusion.

- In the electricity price I was making a comparison, not aiming at exact absolute numbers. We were discussing powering a hydrogen car from Solar. This means you will need approx 4x as much energy from the solar system as a result of all inefficiencies in the hydrogen chain, there is no way around that. Thus, assuming Nikola uses the same panels as Tesla (who will produces these themselves in 2019 when they start delivery of the trucks) Nikola (and Toyota) will need 4x as many solar panels and space, at easily 4x as high cost.
So on competitive position on cost to power the trucks : Game, set & match for Tesla.


On the Toyota truck and the 670 HP specification you were referring to.

I assume you have an understanding how FC cars work, and why they have a buffer battery. FC's are most happy delivering a continuous flow of electricity, they are bad in delivering high peak load. So for peak loads, the system has to draw from the battery. Nikola decided on a 320 kWh for that, and Toyota 12 kWh.

As stated in the article the Toyota truck it uses two Mirai Fuel Cells. The new Toyota Mirai FC Stack achieve a maximum output of 114 kW (153 hp). (Source, Wikipedia). There are two of these in the truck, so 2x = 228 kW (306 hp).
This means, for continuous use, the Toyota truck can deliver a maximum of 300 hp, as the Fuel cells are limited to that. Effectively it is an 300 HP truck, with a peak power of 670 HP.

For the truck to reach its specification of 670 hp, it will have to draw Power from the buffer battery.
In that case more than half of the power has to come from the buffer battery. Let's be nice to Toyota and assume it is exactly half

This means, that other 228 kW will have to come from the battery. Assuming 100% of that 12 kW battery is available for use, it can deliver that power for a maximum time of 12/228 = 0,05 hour = 180 seconds (3 minutes). Well, in real life use it will of course be less than that actually. Remember the 80.000 lb trucks crawling uphill Elon mentioned, ? The Toyota truck will be one of those. If it makes it.


Comparison to Tesla-Semi.

Tesla officially stated that it can drive the 80.000 lb truck uphill at 5% ramp at 65 mph. Continuous speed.
That requires a total of 1600 hp continously (1,2 MW).
And it can do that for almost one hour before the 1 MWh (or 1,2 MWh) battery is depleted.. WOW !

(I did not redo the calculation, so I am not sure if the Semi indeed has 1600 HP. Source for this : scroll down to MegaWatts).
Tesla's Electric Semi is a Mega Truck > ENGINEERING.com

And it gets better. After driving that almost one hour uphill with an 80.000 lb Semi at an 5% angle (if you can find such a mountain ;-) ) you reached the top, and will go downhill. Now you get a very significant part of that 1 MWh energy back (maybe as much as 60-80% !!) to continue your journey to the final destination.

In Nikola's case, they get about 30% back in their 320 kWh battery.

TheToyota's Hydrogen truck however gets a " full 12 kWh" back on that long downhill drive. Maximum.
To get rid of the rest of the 1 MWh breaking energy it will have turn it into heat in the brakes (and probably replace these brakes once it reaches the village downhill.

TLDR:
- Tesla's semi can deliver a power continuously that is 4x higher than Toyota truck's 3-minute peak power, and almost 6x more than Toyota's continuous power.
- Tesla has unbeatable power costs compared to hydrogen trucks

@ MMD, again, I will not respond to your post now your core argument is that Tesla is telling lies.

Edit:
P.S. And on Tesla and the LA port, see 2 posts above this one.

I won't debate the guesstimates about Tesla semi power numbers. When Tesla is sure enough to disclose the numbers, we can check back.
I admit, Toyota's semi is not designed for drag racing on hills. It is doing its job of drayghe hauling at the LA and Long Beach ports for which it is designed. On some hilly roads on I-5 to Los Angeles, trucks are required to drive in the slow lanes. Even most cars are crawling up hill. If Toyota wanted its semi to cross those hills, it could add more stacks. Plenty of room under the semi hood.

Whether the Tesla semi truck is real or not, either way it is good news for Tesla bears. Selling $0.07/kWh of electricity and $75/KWh of battery pack with a million mile powertrain warranty is financial suicide. The more semi trucks Tesla delivers, the worse its income statement looks.

PS: Yeah, read the article on LA ports reserving 10 Tesla semis.For minimum 2 years, they won't even see a Tesla semi. They are anxious to try one out. Too bad Tesla can't send the semi prototype to places where it can demonstrate its viability. From the surface, it looks more like the solar roof tile product to me. Not that I mind either way.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Towing an option for the 3 in the future? Sounds like it in the manual :
TheTeslaLife on Twitter

and staggered wheels

 

[Causalien]

"mmd" does nothing but spam the forums with FUD posts and trolling. Even in subforums here related to Tesla products, all they do is make insinuations that Tesla won't deliver or has bad intentions.

Their own words are illustrative of their ill intent: Degradation of the Community...

I am frankly disgusted that this person hasn't been banned.

There are others here who are bearish or negative on Tesla, but many of them at least make a good faith effort to create a substantive argument.

Mmd is simply here to lash out at people or make them feel uncertain for an undetermined (but probably related to monetary loss) reason(s).

Don't think banning will work. They've proven themselves to be persistent. Banning will just mean that they re create another ID and continue on. What I have a beef about is one person owning several accounts and creating a false sense of majority. At least right now, we know with 100% certainty who are on the bear side and who are not.

Remember in the beginning when Elon promised to be able to do Model 3 while the big autos say that a manufacturing lines will costs several billions to setup which was impossible given TSLA's current cash and market cap. Well both are right, what was not accounted for on both side is the demand. The extra demands made both the bear and the bulls side predictions correct.

The truth is always somewhere in between and muddling through. What made the stock price go up is demand and the customer's enthusiasm. Some owners didn't like the owner referral idea as it cheapens their honorable intention in the beginning, but it brought the awareness to millions of people through popular social media accounts. Both are right, but the higher stock price made my wallet fatter.

 

[SPadival]

For me the 'interesting' part is to to get confirmation that already the only real argument against the Tesla semi left is hoping & praying that Tesla is telling lies about its specification. I think MMD is not alone in that, the same hoping & praying might already be going on in the board rooms of other truck makers.

However it also means MMD insinuates Tesla is telling lies in both official public presentations and on their website. Such position makes any discussion useless. Actually such is libelous. Maybe MMD want

A trucking guy actually drove the Tesla Semi Cascada mule (I think the same one captured on spy shots about a month ago) and was perfectly happy to put in an order. I would rather take his word than those of my invisible friends who are clutching at straws.

 

[Dennisj00]

Since there’s no idiot button, I suppose ignore will suffice!

 

[kbM3]

Don't think banning will work. They've proven themselves to be persistent. Banning will just mean that they re create another ID and continue on. What I have a beef about is one person owning several accounts and creating a false sense of majority. At least right now, we know with 100% certainty who are on the bear side and who are not.

Remember in the beginning when Elon promised to be able to do Model 3 while the big autos say that a manufacturing lines will costs several billions to setup which was impossible given TSLA's current cash and market cap. Well both are right, what was not accounted for on both side is the demand. The extra demands made both the bear and the bulls side predictions correct.

The truth is always somewhere in between and muddling through. What made the stock price go up is demand and the customer's enthusiasm. Some owners didn't like the owner referral idea as it cheapens their honorable intention in the beginning, but it brought the awareness to millions of people through popular social media accounts. Both are right, but the higher stock price made my wallet fatter.

Truth is not “always somewhere in between“.

 

[Off Shore]

Don't think banning will work. They've proven themselves to be persistent. Banning will just mean that they re create another ID and continue on. What I have a beef about is one person owning several accounts and creating a false sense of majority. At least right now, we know with 100% certainty who are on the bear side and who are not...

FWIW I've had zero problems with the referenced member's posts because I haven't seen them. What I have seen, and repeatedly had to scroll past, are other members who think it's either useful or fun to engage. (Hint to those members: it may be fun for you, but in no case is it useful).

 

[DragonWatch]

While some are bogged down with debates on the GigaFactory, I find this interesting and a learned marketing tool.

Semi | Tesla

Just like the Roadster there are the basic buyers, and then there are the founders buyers. Bottom line here is that I believe that Elon/Tesla has figured out that if they collect very big bucks upfront for say the founders series and then Semi-big reservations; then Tesla may not be driven to obtain additional stock offerings or loans. Both the Roadster and Semi are not the mass market of say the M3, but plopping down $50K to $250K may ease fears of additional stock offerings.

Some may recall that early MSs required a $5,000 deposits and I do not recall a founders series.

What if the M3 founder series had been say $10 or full price?

 

[dc_h]

I believe that you are seriously underestimating the demand for the Roadster.

I hope so.

 

[dc_h]

Manufacturing was the first to go.
View attachment 262399

Technically farms were first. Mining second.

 

[dalalsid]

The GT R, their most extreme spec, is still "only" $167k. The regular GT starts at $112k.

I personally don't see them being in the same market as the Roadster.

Btw here are the sales numbers for the Benz GT (including the GT R, I assume):

• 2016 – US: 1.227 units
• 2016 – Europe: 2.372 units

I see the sls amg is no more.
2016 Mercedes-AMG GT vs Mercedes-Benz SLS AMG

 

[JRP3]

Don't think banning will work.

It will. It did in the past. It would again if used.

 

[Intl Professor]

Truth is not “always somewhere in between“.

I like my interpretation of, "The truth lies somewhere in the middle." Is it telling a fib there? It's the old Solomon and the baby riddle.

 

[dc_h]

I literally did admit this when I said: "the genius is not the technology... it's the marketing."

It’s both, but the real genius is combining the best of both.

 

[Bobfitz1]

"mmd" does nothing but spam the forums with FUD posts and trolling. Even in subforums here related to Tesla products, all they do is make insinuations that Tesla won't deliver or has bad intentions.
Their own words are illustrative of their ill intent: Degradation of the Community...
I am frankly disgusted that this person hasn't been banned.

Has the moderator of this topic, or the folks running the site ever explained why they won't ban a handful of the trolls who are degrading TMC? We aren't talking about suppressing honest skepticism or bear sentiment. Just dealing responsibly with individuals who have shown they are destructive.

 

[JRP3]

Endless lines of meaningless nonsense...

You're just an idiot at this point.

 

[dc_h]

Thanks. Made the correction and it gives a even better profit margin ... (The question I was trying to get answered for my self was whether the $0.07/KwH will be profitable and possible)

I’m sure jhm, neroden or someone has much more precise data, but wind is as low as 2.5 cents in 2015 and new 10Mw turbines is expected to reduce that another third. The federal tax credit is there, for now, but maybe gone by 2019. 10Mw of solar takes about 10 acres, which is not a problem on the interstate highway. Tesla should be able to produce electricity on the highway for 3-4 cents plus batteries. They can scale power production and batteries as demand changes. More static locations like port of LA will be interesting to see how they handle. Cheap solar can be built in the hills west of LA, but can they use existing lines to deliver and at what cost. Last is warehouses, Tesla can provide a solar and battery solution with lifetime costs at 7 cents. The next area is local Walmart stores and delivery endpoints. Do they build or provide off grid solutions with a lifetime cost or fund the build themselves. I would prefer they let Walmart and JB Hunt buy the solution, but we will see.
Bottom line, interstate highway system should cost Tesla less than 7 cents. Long term they can probably get this cost down to 5 cents or less. Distribution centers and high concentration more urban sites are going to be interesting how they solve.

 

[gigglehertz]

Has the moderator of this topic, or the folks running the site ever explained why they won't ban a handful of the trolls who are degrading TMC? We aren't talking about suppressing honest skepticism or bear sentiment. Just dealing responsibly with individuals who have shown they are destructive.

My guess is that it has something to do with the little ads at the top of every page and the effect on them of constant page refreshes when people want to argue. Same reason I predicted Facebook would show increased revenue after the BLM and Confederate flag debates. Same reason Google news is filled with Seeking FUD articles.

 

[Off Shore]

My guess is that it has something to do with the little ads at the top of every page and the effect on them of constant page refreshes when people want to argue. Same reason I predicted Facebook would show increased revenue after the BLM and Confederate flag debates. Same reason Google news is filled with Seeking FUD articles.

Right! I forgot. I haven't seen ads for a long time. Remarkably cheap to make 'em go away.

 

[DragonWatch]

While some are bogged down with debates on the GigaFactory, I find this interesting and a learned marketing tool.

Semi | Tesla

Just like the Roadster there are the basic buyers, and then there are the founders buyers. Bottom line here is that I believe that Elon/Tesla has figured out that if they collect very big bucks upfront for say the founders series and then Semi-big reservations; then Tesla may not be driven to obtain additional stock offerings or loans. Both the Roadster and Semi are not the mass market of say the M3, but plopping down $50K to $250K may ease fears of additional stock offerings.

Some may recall that early MSs required a $5,000 deposits and I do not recall a founders series.

What if the M3 founder series had been say $10 or full price?

That was to be $10K or full price on the M3.