End of year always seemed too early for hardware refits, from the moment Musk was sitting on top of the Gigafactory. January seemed plausible to me.
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DurandalAI
Member
So my personal opinion on the matter is that the 2.0 and 2.5 HW should be able to do level 4 driving, for all but extreme situations. Level 5 will probably require hardware swapping. However, I don’t think that FSD as currently sold is promising level 5, but instead level 4.
I also think that edge situations can be handled by having a Tesla rep remote control the vehicle for when vehicles are trying to run in level 5 mode but get “stuck” due to really odd circumstances, which will then help the neural net learn about such edge cases.
In any event, they will upgrade the hardware to make it safer, cheaper, and more efficient.
Norway
As for those all-electric sales and slight overall gains for the month, it was all Tesla’s doing. The best selling plug-in models last month were the Tesla Model S & Model X, as Tesla delivered 501 and 495, respectively – a new “non last month of the quarter”record for the company in the country, ...
In Norway, Plug-In Hybrids Set 4th Sales Record In A Row, Tesla Surges
As for those all-electric sales and slight overall gains for the month, it was all Tesla’s doing. The best selling plug-in models last month were the Tesla Model S & Model X, as Tesla delivered 501 and 495, respectively – a new “non last month of the quarter”record for the company in the country, ...
In Norway, Plug-In Hybrids Set 4th Sales Record In A Row, Tesla Surges
I've explained this about a dozen times, because people are idiots.
Gross profit (rises as more cars are sold) - fixed overhead (doesn't) - R & D (expenditures for future cars, but expensed) = GAAP profit or loss
Right now gross profit = fixed overhead = R&D, very approximately. Go from 100K cars per year to 500K cars per year. You increase gross profit, fixed overhead stays about the same, R&D stays the same or even drops. Conclusion: big profit.
Sure, maybe fixed overhead goes up. Say, worst case, it doubles. Even if the extra 400K cars each make half as much gross profit as the first 100K (due to having lower purchase prices), the gross profit still at least triples, so you're still ahead.
Most of the short-sellers have never heard of economies of scale, indicating that they probably shouldn't be allowed to invest in stocks at all.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Seriously, don't explain to shorts. Let them stay short.
But for our own understanding:
Calculate Tesla and SolarCity as two separate units to simplify.
For Tesla, from 2003 to 2017, what's the total spending?
1. R&D cost, not including people's cost
2. People cost: Engineers, workers, staff members (Salary+health+retirement+...) This one is huge.
3. Buildings, machines, buying sub units
4. Buying parts and material
5. Superchargers, electricity cost
6. Warranty cost, fixing cars, especially fixing the early Model S and X
7. Other costs of running business, you can find more from the annual reports, such as lawsuits, interest payment, etc.
How much money did we get from various sources?
1. Cash flow from selling 250k cars
2. Selling shares
3. Selling bonds and borrowing
My calculation shows the cash flow was not even close to pay the cost. It makes perfect sense that there is a big debt load, and it appears Tesla loses a lot of money every year. Divide the loss by the number of cars sold, it seems true we lose a lot of money on each car.
If we look deeper, shorts are completely wrong. What Tesla has been doing is like planting seeds using borrowed money. Look what we are set up to do in the next 5 years:
In 2022 we will have a total sales close to 100 billion dollars. The total cost less than 75 billion.
Why such a big difference? When sales go up by 10 fold, the engineering cost and the worker's cost don't go up proportionally. That's why increasing production speed and automation is such a big deal.
SolarCity portion deserves a separate post. In the long run it will add about 200 billion dollars to Tesla's market cap. For now, let shorts spin it whatever way they want.
One of the earliest outsized orders (large relative to size of business) was 25 Semis ordered by Loblaw's -- a Canadian grocery store chain -- and now we have the largest order publicized to date coming from a food services company.
I think lower margin industries like this may continue to order the Semi most aggressively since small percentage savings can make a proportionally greater difference to the bottom line.
larmor
Active Member
Actually deeper is much more important. Wider means there is no one entering the field, they don't have the vision to see across the moat, so the market and industries work to undermine you.
Deeper means that you believe you can do it-- GM/Ford buying AI tech and autonomous car startups (FWIW, i was just visiting silicon valley and that is all the rage to make an autonomous car startup and get acquired). But then once you start to cross the moat, you realize it's pretty deep and struggle to keep above water...
I agree, and think another factor may be that these businesses serve more urban and Suburban clients than many. For these areas the stop and go driving dynamics, pollution, and noise pollution aspects may be of more importance, than to businesses who operate largely in industrial, and rural areas.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I agree with you; just wanted to make you laugh on a Friday. Good days ahead for Tesla bulls.
New 3 owner reports he got referral code - gives free supercharging but to S and X buyers only!
Model 3 owners now have referral codes! • r/teslamotors
Model 3 owners now have referral codes! • r/teslamotors
Thumper
Active Member
In contrast to the BK school of shorting TSLA, more companies ordering semis have no qualms about large deposits and expect to see the delivery of trucks in twoish years.
bdy0627
Active Member
Let's get some alligators in there too, just to take care of those few who are actually getting across the moat.
So vertical integration continuous. What are the pros and cons?
Owning the value chain is a clear pro. The list of industries Tesla competes now against is getting longer and longer....
Tesla is developing its own custom AI chip, says Elon Musk
Owning the value chain is a clear pro. The list of industries Tesla competes now against is getting longer and longer....
Tesla is developing its own custom AI chip, says Elon Musk
DurandalAI
Member
They could make it something like first 400kWh of charging is free or something trivial like that. If there is no incentive for the buyer to bother with the referral code, then the person who referred won’t get counted.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Nissan doesn't think so
Nissan Says Self-Driving Cars Are Impossible. Its Solution? Customer Call Centers
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