2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[schonelucht]

As moderator, I have warned @myusername that simply reiterating incorrect statements, particularly since I think he knows better, is unacceptable.

Can you clarify this policy? Is it unacceptable to post incorrect statements by others to highlight the fact that they were wrong before?

If so, what's the rationale? I can understand if it would turn in an eternal badger fest where incorrect statements (we all made them) are brought up repeatedly to discredit a particular poster over and over. But @myusername seems quite far from that point.

 

[Xenius]

Ok, now you guys made me buy a boring hat. Thanks, I hate you tall.

Join the club, I bought two. And I don't even wear hats. Guess where I bought them from? My phone, while autopiloting *shhhhhh*

 

[schonelucht]

Very interesting finds by @hoonable (Bozi Tatarevic) on twitter

* The paperwork that comes with a model 3 delivery mentions that employee pricing is availably for Model S and X. Seems like days that even directors had to pay full price are over. It's interesting to continue to watch for this one to see if Tesla will become more comfortable with traditional discounting practices.
* More important : He also found import records for the Model 3 12V battery. See his twitter Incoming volume was (approx) 1000 units in July and August, 4000 in October, 3000 in November and none so far in December. Original source is this video.

What's particularly interesting about the last observation was that imports were on a level of around 1000 units/week all through a good chunk of October and November but stopped since. Either the source lags and more shipments already came in but aren't visible yet or Tesla reduced shipping rate since inventory was growing too quickly.

 

[bonaire]

Very interesting finds by @hoonable (Bozi Tatarevic) on twitter

* The paperwork that comes with a model 3 delivery mentions that employee pricing is availably for Model S and X. Seems like days that even directors had to pay full price are over. It's interesting to continue to watch for this one to see if Tesla will become more comfortable with traditional discounting practices.
* More important : He also found import records for the Model 3 12V battery. See his twitter Incoming volume was (approx) 1000 units in July and August, 4000 in October, 3000 in November and none so far in December. Original source is this video.

What's particularly interesting about the last observation was that imports were on a level of around 1000 units/week all through a good chunk of October and November but stopped since. Either the source lags and more shipments already came in but aren't visible yet or Tesla reduced shipping rate since inventory was growing too quickly.

Are the batteries any different than the ones in the S/X? Since they come from the same company, are they just using the same in all three models?

 

[mongo]

Either the source lags and more shipments already came in but aren't visible yet or Tesla reduced shipping rate since inventory was growing too quickly.

There was a report a while ago about Telsa reducing orders from suppliers, it mentioned a contractual lead time for volume changes, so this is possibly an effect from that.

 

[schonelucht]

Are the batteries any different than the ones in the S/X? Since they come from the same company, are they just using the same in all three models?

My understanding they are different. S/X 12V battery is from C&D technologies while 3 is from AtlasBX.

 

[JRP3]

Thor electric truck: This Electric Truck Will Probably Beat Tesla’s to Market

"Is that a Tesla?"

 

[Krugerrand]

IANAL, as they say (not a lawyer) but I believe it is very much frowned upon by the judiciary to destroy evidence in an ongoing case. If I'm not mistaken it is standard practice to petition the court to prohibit that, and contempt is not at all good for your own cause.

Right, agreed. But there’s nothing to stop them from doing it to cover their tracks. As long as those involved keep quiet, who’s to know otherwise?

Frankly I believe their guilty as all get out otherwise there was no sense in calling a lawyer in the first place to try and block Tesla. If they’re capable of what they’re being accused of, it’s no biggie to alter or destroy the evidence...cause that’s never happened before.

 

[kenliles]

Not that it can't be done; but that's actually very much more difficult than it appears on the surface. At filing of case all docs, emails, etc. are sequestered and at discovery are collected by opposing counsel etc. For widespread destruction, the law firm also implicated. In addition, most key docs (especially electronic email and such)- have archive and many receivers and copies available. If those copies are not available from the original source, then destruction is caught and the penalties are severe. Bottom line- it's not as easy as seems on the surface...

 

[ggr]

Can you clarify this policy? Is it unacceptable to post incorrect statements by others to highlight the fact that they were wrong before?

If so, what's the rationale? I can understand if it would turn in an eternal badger fest where incorrect statements (we all made them) are brought up repeatedly to discredit a particular poster over and over. But @myusername seems quite far from that point.

Moderator attempted clarification:

Say one person who was liveblogging about Elon's statements misinterpreted one to say that Elon promised to deliver 200k Model 3s in 2017. It is widely agreed, including by the person in question now, that this is a misinterpretation. That is not a problem. Making simple mistakes is not a problem (indeed I @ggr do it regrettably often).

Say another person insists, today, quoting the first person's posting out of context, that Elon lied during the conference call, and failed to live up to his promises, and makes that claim repeatedly despite being contradicted, with evidence, multiple times. That is a problem. Postings like that and the responses it generates bog down the forum. Or another example: repeatedly claiming that Tesla Energy generates no income at all, when the latest 10Q shows "Energy generation and storage $317,505 (in $000s)" for Q3 2017; over $300 million isn't chump change. (I need another color to indicate that this is a personal response from me, that just happens to be embedded in an ex cathedra posting. I chose to personally refrain from replying earlier.)

The moderators (and bear in mind that I'm a newbie, at least in the TMC context; I moderated USENET forums for a decade, 20 years ago) are actively discussing these issues. We don't have a "bright line" test. I wish we did, and you can consider this an experiment to try to preserve one of the most valuable parts of the Forum and maybe develop clearer guidelines.

Note that negativity by itself is clearly not disqualifying. Thank you for your valuable contributions.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Norway analysis.

September 17 was the greatest month of all (2004 sales), due mainly to the last week:
Mon 2017-09-25 151
Tue 2017-09-26 145
Wed 2017-09-27 200
Thu 2017-09-28 200
Fri 2017-09-29 132
Sat 2017-09-30 56
Sun 2017-10-01 18

56 on a Saturday is unheard of, and also they almost never work on Sundays. It's 902 sales in a week!

If we can reproduce something like this in Dec (given the rumor that Tesla people had to come from Denmark because of the deliveries, this is possible) I'm quite confident that this month could break all the records (Q4 will be the greatest probably already tomorrow ;-)

 

[DragonWatch]

Thor electric truck: This Electric Truck Will Probably Beat Tesla’s to Market

"Is that a Tesla?"

I like this article covering the same topic Tesla Semi Price × Orders = $47 Million to $55 Million in Tesla Revenue (with Assumptions) | CleanTechnica

Both articles show semi’s that either look like Tesla or are Tesla.

Where or what is the competitions battery source? How may reservations with cash on the barrel head? Is he burning cash? California may want to consider a burn ban

 

[Waiting4M3]

Isn’t most of that stuff long since gone/destroyed/deleted?? They’ve had plenty of time to cover their tracks up until now.

As others say they would have to be really brazen to destroy emails like this. Also it may not be very easy. If the judge found out they did this, the penalty is much worse than just colluding to keep out Tesla. They may not be able to wipe out all the emails that were Cc'd to 3rd party, some disgruntled former assistant could leak something. Or their email servers could be subpoenaed, deleted emails could be retrieved that way.

Another potential problem is that they could've quoted some of these kind of emails in other emails that are already known, such as the dealer's drafting the proposal for anti-Tesla laws. They would have to wash clean those emails, which is hard to do. Or if they simply delete those emails, there will also be left an obvious hole, and that would just bring more attention onto this.

 

[DragonWatch]

Norway analysis.

September 17 was the greatest month of all (2004 sales), due mainly to the last week:
Mon 2017-09-25 151
Tue 2017-09-26 145
Wed 2017-09-27 200
Thu 2017-09-28 200
Fri 2017-09-29 132
Sat 2017-09-30 56
Sun 2017-10-01 18

56 on a Saturday is unheard of, and also they almost never work on Sundays. It's 902 sales in a week!

If we can reproduce something like this in Dec (given the rumor that Tesla people had to come from Denmark because of the deliveries, this is possible) I'm quite confident that this month could break all the records (Q4 will be the greatest probably already tomorrow ;-)

I am very positive about S & X sales/deliveries after looking over the InsideEV Tesla deliveries over the last couple of years including the recent Electrek’s article including a chart for December. Then there is the rumored M3 production increase based on sightings at delivery centers and in the wild. Add to this time of year, happy holidays, and gift giving and I am betting on high numbers.

One loud/silent push is the cliff associated with the tax legislation that if successful in crashing the $7,500 tax incentive; well now is the absolute best time to cash in on the deal before 31 December 2017. Here in the US.

The morning after, or 2 January 2018 sales might slip a bit for the S and X historically. The difference will be the increase in M3 deliveries; they most certainly will fly off the shelf. The completion is scared to death of the “morning after” based on all the negative media and blog input since the bottlenecks caused some concern.

I think the M3 will not only save the day, it will make the day; okay all year. While the competition has been peeing into the wind over the 400 +/- M3 reservations; they really are fearing the morning after that last 450K reservation rolls off the assembly line, makes its victory lap around the test track and the new owner puts the keycard in her or his wallet. Then and only then will the slowdown in sales of ICE cars be fully realized, and they know it

May the “fear” be with you fossil fuel lovers I can smell the fear, and it smells like smog:-(

 

[Sudre]

Seeing all the pics of M3s in parking lots and thinking about the fact that most orders are the same except paint color and the rest is software...... do any of you think maybe Tesla is going to pile hundreds to thousands of cars on lots and then tell buyers, 'Hey come down and pick a car today! And drive off with it'?

Of coarse that would be in accordance with who is in line where but it would also be a way to move thousands of car really quick.

I think that would also move the SP significantly if Tesla moved a few thousand cars over a weekend like that.
Plus they have a few more weekends to do it over again.

I believe if you put a thousand people who are waiting in line on a lot of brands new M3s those cars would disappear faster than Tesla could finish the paperwork.... even if it wasn't exactly what the person wanted. Sometimes people don't really know what they want until they drive it.

 

[DragonWatch]

As others say they would have to be really brazen to destroy emails like this. Also it may not be very easy. If the judge found out they did this, the penalty is much worse than just colluding to keep out Tesla. They may not be able to wipe out all the emails that were Cc'd to 3rd party, some disgruntled former assistant could leak something. Or their email servers could be subpoenaed, deleted emails could be retrieved that way.

Another potential problem is that they could've quoted some of these kind of emails in other emails that are already known, such as the dealer's drafting the proposal for anti-Tesla laws. They would have to wash clean those emails, which is hard to do. Or if they simply delete those emails, there will also be left an obvious hole, and that would just bring more attention onto this.

FYI ~ liars, thrives, cheaters, criminals, haters; exc. . . These people will chew off their limb (leg, foot) trapped in a vice; kind of like a wild cat with its leg in a steel trap of old. How else will it live to see another day; you know, eat, lie and cheat some more. The question is the legal system, and effectiveness of the punishment. A wet noodle is less effective than prison with bubba

 

[avoigt]

Rumor: Tax credit looks like in the bill again...

Ari Natter on Twitter

 

[Reciprocity]

Can you clarify this policy? Is it unacceptable to post incorrect statements by others to highlight the fact that they were wrong before?

If so, what's the rationale? I can understand if it would turn in an eternal badger fest where incorrect statements (we all made them) are brought up repeatedly to discredit a particular poster over and over. But @myusername seems quite far from that point.

Paid FUDsters should not be able to post at all. Maybe add that to the terms of service for the site when you sign up. If you are paid to come into forums like this a deceive people, then you should be banned. @myusername won't admit if they are paid or not to post here or more specifically to spread FUD regardless of where they do it. I don't believe they can either confirm or deny as there must be sec rules about these types of activities.

 

[DragonWatch]

Rumor: Tax credit looks like in the bill again...

Ari Natter on Twitter

If correct, this is good news for continued sales the morning after 1 January 2018.

 

[myusername]

As moderator, I have warned @myusername that simply reiterating incorrect statements, particularly since I think he knows better, is unacceptable.

Speaking for myself, now that I have to read these comments again, I understand the gut response to help understand and to correct statements, but would counsel resisting the urge.

Paid FUDsters should not be able to post at all. Maybe add that to the terms of service for the site when you sign up. If you are paid to come into forums like this a deceive people, then you should be banned. @myusername won't admit if they are paid or not to post here or more specifically to spread FUD regardless of where they do it. I don't believe they can either confirm or deny as there must be sec rules about these types of activities.

people who believe that everyone short is paid by big oil should be banned.