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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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This isn't really investment-related, but I know several of you will enjoy it and don't get around to the rest of the forum regularly. Hopefully the mods will indulge me.

This is part of why I like supporting Tesla. (Also, @bonnie is a superstar, using her powers for good.)

Early Model 3 delivery for stage 4 cancer patient with Tesla ownership on his bucket list

And Bonnie's Twitter post where the event is chronicled .

Kudos to Bonnie, her owner friend, and Tesla.

Didn't see that, thanks.
 
Tesla Taiwanese Supplier HOTA increasing output to 5K weekly

This is the same supplier who announced a reduction in output shipping to Tesla (from 5,000 to 3,000 per week) days before Tesla's last earnings call where the bottleneck/~3 month delay was announced. If you go to the linked TMC thread, and the article that in turn links to, it looks quite encouraging that the ramp is getting back on track now : )
 
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Tesla Taiwanese Supplier HOTA increasing output to 5K weekly

This is the same supplier who announced a reduction in output shipping to Tesla (from 5,000 to 3,000 per week) days before Tesla's last earnings call where the bottleneck/~3 month delay was announced. Speculative, but, with Tesla having thousands of suppliers, it kind of seems this supplier's communications may be a form of message telegraphing.

There is no need to order that many parts/week. It is not like they can produce 3000/wk per week right now, let alone 5000. The parts will be covered in dust before they even use it.
 
There is no need to order that many parts/week. It is not like they can produce 3000/wk per week right now, let alone 5000. The parts will be covered in dust before they even use it.

google translate and the limits which that entails, but, from the article,

"Tesla itself is also very urgent, has frequently asked the supply chain to speed up the delivery speed, but also indirectly confirmed that the assembly line and the supply chain has Complete the adjustment.

And Chairman Shen Guorong yesterday (13), said that in order to meet the Tesla urgent request, and the big group is now the "whole mobilization" and work overtime day and night, in addition to shipping, some even have air cargo supply.

In particular, Christmas holiday approaching, in line with the holiday immediately after the on-line assembly, spare parts supply all the preparatory work for a moment can not be relaxed. Shen Guorong said that at present and in the Model 3 shipments, it has risen to 5,000 sets a week from 3,000 a week last month."

make of it as you interpret, but, I find this quite encouraging.

I bolded the word "sets" as in the past there was some wondering whether the 5K of parts per week from this supplier corresponded to 5K vehicle production or whether each Model 3 might use more than one of this part. Well, "5,000 sets a week" to me is quite clear that it does correspond to the parts needed from this particular supplier for 5K vehicles per week.
 
People will want a Service Center near their home, as is now the case with most major brands. And when in place, I expect the chargers and centers to be a drain on revenue. If we're to believe that the EVs need few visits to the doctor, how will TESLA keep the Service Center lights on and pay the staff?

Tesla shouldn't chase the very last marginal sale in rural north Alaska nor rural north Iceland.

It should build just enough service centers that are able to pay for themselves, keeping busy most of time. Not blanketing the world with service centers.

For rural customers where the locale doesn't support a service center then offer Ranger Service. If that is not good enough they can buy another brand.

With Model 3/Y and possibly 2019+ Model S/X owners paying rougly $.14-$.21 per kWh for Supercharging I think the Tesla charging network will be just fine economically.
 
I don't know if this is referring to the drivetrain motor, or other less important motors (i.e. for power windows), or a subsystem of the drivetrain motor... but this seemed interesting. Google translate caveat applies here as well.

"Tomita Electric, a major supplier of electric vehicle power motor systems, has also received orders for all powered motors from Tesla Model S and Model X vehicles and will be fully booked next year. Tesla electric car coupling, sports car and other new models, power motors are conducted by Tomita pre-trial production, the two sides close cooperation."

特斯拉大量出貨 台廠忙翻

(it's a link to Yahoo, presumably Yahoo Taiwan)
 
A *feasibility study* to investigate the *potential* of prismatic cells. Oy. Tesla looked at this several years ago and went "nope, cylindrical is better". This is a sign of Toyota going nowhere.

This is on the tail end of "Musk was right, fuel cells are a stupid idea." And now Toyota is pretending to seriously research yet another stupid idea. Cheaper than actually producing quality EV's i suppose. I love seeing the 'legacy' auto manufacturers make one bad move after another.
 
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More model 3 sittings, by vin, in the last week than prior all time. Deliveries are almost certainly over 500 per week and accelerating.

Model 3 VINs
Brilliant, thanks! Also I think back to when basically every Roadster owner was part of TMC forum. Similarly for the early Model S owners. But then, as more and more S's shipped, proportional representation dropped off. With the Model 3, I wouldn't be at all surprised if many more than half even in the early stages didn't participate and don't get sighted and reported. I think we're probably at around 1500 delivered already (total), and the floodgates are opening. Also remember, historically, they work hard till the end of the year, then get the first week of the new year off, so there may be many more deliveries in the next 10 working days.
 
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Tesla Taiwanese Supplier HOTA increasing output to 5K weekly

This is the same supplier who announced a reduction in output shipping to Tesla (from 5,000 to 3,000 per week) days before Tesla's last earnings call where the bottleneck/~3 month delay was announced. If you go to the linked TMC thread, and the article that in turn links to, it looks quite encouraging that the ramp is getting back on track now : )
That's quite positive. Checking online, the standard container shipping time from Taiwan to San Francisco seems to be around 30 days. So Tesla may be expecting to be close to 5k/week in January. :)
 
An AI chip will mostly need a lot of multiply/add units, which are fairly simple circuits (simple enough to be in the entry level course digital electronics I followed 25 year ago). There is porbably a lot of control logic around it, but still this should be a lot simpler than building a top of the line x86/x64 chip (what Keller did in the mentioned 3 year period at AMD). It probably looks more like a DSP or GPU than a general purpose CPU. I don’t think it would need a lot of of cache (at least not in the sense of L1/L2/L3 cache on a CPU), maybe just some on chip memory. If Jim Keller can make a tape-out of a top of the line x64 chip in 3 years, he can get this AI thing to the tapeout stage a lot faster. I wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla is testing their first silicon right now.

Just found this article describing Google’s TPU v2: Google boffins tease custom AI math-chip TPU2 stats: 45 TFLOPS, 16GB HBM, benchmarks • The Register it looks like my educated guess was pretty accurate.
Edit: some further googling reveals that there was about 2 years between v1 and v2 of google’s TPU.
 
Maybe a bit lost in translation but the article seems to indicate that Hota is already gearing up for 10k sets/week. That’s definitely much earlier than I expected based on Tesla communication so far.

Wrt a different supplieer of motors for the S/X, maybe that’s for non drivetrain motors and related to a much rumored interior refresh?
 
Just a quick service announcement for those of you travelling through Europe. Tesla will finally be opening the first Supercharger in Hungary! We`ve been a black hole on the Tesla map until now, but the local Ev site i recently started contributing to just got exclusive info and pics on the first location being built at Gyor (M1 highway road 82 intersection at an OMV petrol station), halfway between Vienna, Austria and Budapest, Hungary. Yay!

4 stalls should be opened by EOY and 10-12 more next year.

BTW Gyor is where the Hungarian Audi factory is located so at least they`ll be able to charge the Teslas they test. :p

Link for those of you speaking the language or daring google translate.
2017-12-13_tesla_supercharger_gyor_01.jpg
 
Back at the end of November when I made a pilgrimage to the FDC, I spoke with one of the employees who was moving Threes from the lot into the final prep staging area and he said it was "crunch time around here." He was not at liberty to elaborate, but it was clear to me that they were working furiously to get the Threes in the lot prepped and delivered. The unstated aspect of that brief comment which subsequent evidence supports is that they were rushing to move the 50-60 present in the lot at that time because waves of finished Threes were about to arrive. Even at the end of November you could see the employees moving Threes into the southwest corner of the FDC, the area that I would characterize as the "final prep bay," with great urgency. You could see into the bay and observe multiple employees swarming over Threes to ready them for hand over to lucky owners. I can't imagine how crazy it is now, what with photo and video evidence showing Threes double parked in multiple rows in the back forty of the FDC and ever increasing numbers inbound! Go Tesla Go!

Brilliant, thanks! Also I think back to when basically every Roadster owner was part of TMC forum. Similarly for the early Model S owners. But then, as more and more S's shipped, proportional representation dropped off. With the Model 3, I wouldn't be at all surprised if many more than half even in the early stages didn't participate and don't get sighted and reported. I think we're probably at around 1500 delivered already (total), and the floodgates are opening. Also remember, historically, they work hard till the end of the year, then get the first week of the new year off, so there may be many more deliveries in the next 10 working days.
 
A *feasibility study* to investigate the *potential* of prismatic cells. Oy. Tesla looked at this several years ago and went "nope, cylindrical is better". This is a sign of Toyota going nowhere.

Agree.
Among other problems prismatic cells are harder to keep cool during fast discharging (pedal-to-the-metal) and (even more important) fast charging. At the same time in prismatic cells cooling is even more important then cylindrical cells (vulnerability to swelling).
This cooling issue might be one of the reasons the Bolt fast charging is slow. It might also very well impact cell lifetime as a result.

And these problems will only increase as the packs get more dense and bigger.

One reason to choose prismatic cells, is because module / pack level assembly is easier (far less cells per car). Note that Tesla is now gaining a lot of experience how to assemble many small cells (learning the hard way, but learning). It will take the others a lot of time should they later learn prismatic cells will not result in competitive cars on specifications like fast charging and cell life.

Edit: corrected typo.
 
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