2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[neroden]

At times like these, I remember these lines from Jesse Livermore:
“It was never my thinking that made the big money for me, it always was sitting.”
“Don’t give me timing, give me time."
“Money is made by sitting, not trading.”

I'm currently satisfying my itchy trading finger and avoiding making actual trades by rolling weekly T-bills.

 

[JRP3]

$TSLA very close to an inflection point could take off any time could easily be the next Bitcoin

007‏ @TrendTrader007
$TSLA based on my chart reading $TSLA could start a furious rally anyday now and stock price could easily go up 10X over the next 21/2 to 3 years to $3000 or more

More top quality analysis.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Picked up 2 more J19 $350s at $301 today. TSLA showing relative strength given the drop in tech stocks.

I'm looking to get into $400-500 19/20 leaps for leverage. Hoping TSLA hovers around $300 for the next week or two and prices come down a bit. Fingers crossed.

On another note.....have analysts quantified the impact to share price of launching a Roadster to Mars? I guess they may need to build a new algorithm input for that event.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

General rotation to value

This would be great for me. I have a few value/retail stocks I’ve been looking to get rid of as soon as they get a surge up. I’ll take those proceeds and pick up a few more shares of TSLA.

 

[Starno]

Oh a little bit of sun ?

 

[neroden]

It could play like this: Senate is more tenuous. House signs senate bill as is.

It *could* happen. But do you think the Freedom Caucus will really agree to that? They show every sign of not doing so, and they are known for holding their breath and stomping their feet until they pass out.

 

[Papafox]

Haha, the short bad wolf can huff and puff, but he's having real trouble blowing 306 down.

 

[Runarbt]

Haha, the short bad wolf can huff and puff, but he's having real trouble blowing 306 down.

another 6!

 

[Waiting4M3]

another 6!

That's it! I've had it with the 6s. I'm setting a limit order to sell all my shares at $666.66!

 

[jelloslug]

That's it! I've had it with the 6s. I'm setting a limit order to sell all my shares at $666.66!

The devil is in the details.

 

[RobStark]

It *could* happen. But do you think the Freedom Caucus will really agree to that?

If it is the Senate bill or nothing at all.

If the Congressional Rs go to their voters empty handed heading into the midterms while controling both houses of Congress and the White House it will get ugly for incumbent Rs.

The Freedom Caucaus knows this as well.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I’m going to have to disagree with that somewhat, because I believe that the batteries are heavier than that, and Tesla is making up in the weight of the chassis, by using lighter weight materials. You can see that extensively in the Model S, X, and 3. Just my hypothesis, however. I think they are making improvements, but not to the extent that you mention

This of course, is just one speculation vs. another, but Tesla had very little chemistry changes since 2012, so 42 percent of combined chemistry and pack design improvement in specific energy is not that unexpected. Also, strategically, Tesla R&D is best spent on advancement to the technology which is core to all Tesla offerings, rather than on improvements applicable to some.

 

[Reciprocity]

This of course, is just one speculation vs. another, but Tesla had very little chemistry changes since 2012, so 42 percent of combined chemistry and pack design improvement in specific energy is not that unexpected. Also, strategically, Tesla R&D is best spent on advancement to the technology which is core to all Tesla offerings, rather than on improvements applicable to some.

You also cannot scale up the Model 3 pack to 10x as large as much of the weight and lowering of density is due to the pack structure that protects the cells. It could be a fairly high percentage of the packs weight that goes to protect from things like punctures and stuff from the road penetrating the pack at high speed. You only need heavy protection on the bottom of the pack so maybe you drop the weight by 10% of the main pack before you scale it up to compensate? I also made the point in another thread that the pack is part of the structure itself and can replace a heavy portion of the semi's frame.

 

[Papafox]

At the end of trading today, 85,000 shares traded hands in the final minute. I was expecting something this substantial to happen because I think the shorts were manipulating fairly heavily today, as they have been the past week or so, and they used the final minute of trading to reload (cover) in order to be prepared to manipulate again tomorrow. The final minute of trading is particularly well-suited for this purpose because lots of shares can be covered without any noticeable effect upon the stock price.

The good news is that TSLA performed better than the NASDAQ today on a down day, which shows strength in TSLA. If macros allow tomorrow, I would expect TSLA to reclaim 306. The only reason we closed below 306 today was a fairly quick dip in macros in low-volume, late trading.

 

[Cobbler]

We just need a tweet from Elon or a Tesla video showing that they are out of production hell and that the battery packs are automated! Prove of a tsunami with model3 cars that will flood the market beginning next year....
And ATH could be set at a new high (think positive!!)

 

[Waiting4M3]

We just need a tweet from Elon or a Tesla video showing that they are out of production hell and that the battery packs are automated! Prove of a tsunami with model3 cars that will flood the market beginning next year....
And ATH could be set at a new high (think positive!!)

Looks like Elon is back to tweeting about Boring. As long as he's not tweeting from GGF rooftop, I'm taking that as a good sign that things are progressing well there now. We're only 4 weeks from Tesla's official Q4 delivery announcement. I don't expect Elon to tweet about it and step on his PR dept's toes. But I wouldn't mind if he does.

 

[Turing]

This of course, is just one speculation vs. another, but Tesla had very little chemistry changes since 2012, so 42 percent of combined chemistry and pack design improvement in specific energy is not that unexpected. Also, strategically, Tesla R&D is best spent on advancement to the technology which is core to all Tesla offerings, rather than on improvements applicable to some.

I've seen reports showing battery density improving roughly 7% or so a year over the last 20ish years. I wonder if the norm was more like big improvements every 5 years or so enter production and average out to 7% a year in improvements? So more like big step progress rather than annual improvements.

 

[Todd Burch]

My local Tesla Ranger (Virginia Beach, VA) just got his assigned VIN today: 15xx.

Edit: Removed the specific number as some people are sensitive about those things.

 

[Richgoogol]

My local Tesla Ranger (Virginia Beach, VA) just got his assigned VIN today: 15xx.

Edit: Removed the specific number as some people are sensitive about those things.

So he is an employer then?

 

[Sparky]

Things that are keeping me from buying more shares:
1) Tax bill passes. Wall St gets its Christmas present and since market has already priced this gift into the last 9 months of gains, we have a really awful January. Big market correction.
2) I was in the small group (on forum) of non-employees who got to configure their Model 3. That was almost 2 weeks ago and no others here have gotten the email. I know Tesla wants to get a bunch of 3's out before Q4 end but looks like there's still production problems. Hence, I'll be in a token group of 2017 non-employee deliveries (yay me!). But Q4 Model 3 numbers will be awful; cash burn will be front and center and stock will take a beating.
3) I just saw the play "Hamilton". Got 4 of the best seats in the house. Am now broke.