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3Victoria
Active Member
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Menifeer
Member
I'd like to see a column added to the spreadsheet to indicate the distance to the nearest Service Center. I suspect that's a consideration in the selection of invitees.
Here is how I see it, and please correct me if you think otherwise. I feel like the SP has already taken a beating for the Model 3 ramp delay, and nobody currently expects it to go well until end of second quarter. As long as when they announce the delivery number this quarter, they give a hint saying that the ramp is going according to plan and as long as the Model 3 delivery number exceeds 500, also (very important) Model S&X delivery exceeds previous quarter again, the SP will take off.
So seems they are just trying to get a few non-employee orders out there to keep everyone's hope up while mainly still working on employee orders.
I have read that the big megadonors to the Republican Party (Adelson and other big bribers) have said that they will only keep supplying slush funds to the Republicans if the Republicans pass a tax bill. Fear of losing the bribe money may be the motivation to pass the bill.
However, if they actually pass this tax scam, they're toast in the midterms. Apart from its extreme unpopularity, with half the country opposed and only a quarter supporting, it has huge opposition from huge lobbies which traditionally donate to both sides, including the Realtors (one of the biggest donor groups overall). This is walking into an election where they are already exceptionally unpopular. And on top of that, it makes the Freedom Caucus look like complete hypocrites -- and unlike the rest of the Republicans, they seem to have some principles (if ones I strongly disagree with).
I’m still counting on Q4 financials to be quite ugly, and for the stock to be further punished as such. I might buy after Q4 earnings is reported in the hope that Model 3 deliveries in Q1 get people (and the stock) excited again.
I'm not betting on good Q4 financials, but I'm not going to bet that they'll make the stock go down, either. Fundamentally, as soon as Model 3 is delivering in volume (possibly mid-January, possibly mid-February) the market is perfectly likely to start being forward-looking.
500 Model 3s for the Q4 is not enough to support the stock price. 1,500 might hold the stock price. Several thousand per week in Q1 will be needed to move the stock upward. The upward movement could be very strong (> $100) as the ramp gains momentum beyond 1,000 cars per week.
I know folks are trying to time this thing, but Tesla has been superb at keeping activities quiet (heck, we don't know anything about the 3rd factory in Buffalo which has a huge potential to spike at any time as well). What we know:
* 500,000+ reservations still waiting and not going anywhere
* Huge institutional money ready to scale to 12 Gigfactories worldwide just waiting once they finish automating Fremont
* All Tesla products currently not in production have a significant reservation queue
Using Occam's Razor, everything they do, they do majestically like a unicorn's unicorn of a company. Also, they're trying to get it right the first time like a space launch. I think I'm just going to hole up for about a year, have trust that they'll figure things out, and see the fireworks.
Happy Holidays, everybody!
You said it beautifully. Tesla is an unicorn of unicorns. Timing for the "bottom" may turn out to be counter productive.
My number is for delivery. I highly doubt 1500 delivery for the quarter will be met. Maybe 1500 have been made, that I still have faith for.
Would not hold breath but per the conf call they were probably going to be at >1000 per week by the end of the year and 5000 per week by some time in March. Also supposed to do a coast to coast autopilot drive and announce a couple factories.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
We're at 490 Q4 deliveries so far according to Inside EV estimates. Someone posted a MS/X/3 ramp comparison on Reddit:
I have a hunch that month 6 for M3 will be way better than month 6 of MS/X.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Note from Adam Jonas, about Tesla and SpaceX. He puts the initial evaluation of SpaceX at $46bn for base case and $121bn for bull case. And $1.1/1.75tr respectively for 2040. He believes SpaceX economics are superior to Tesla’s (higher profits, etc.)
All hypothetical of course because SpaceX not yet a public company.
“We see the future of Tesla and SpaceX as potentially further intertwined, driven by technological, strategic and financial factors. In our view, investors should have a greater understanding of this relationship.
There are a number of reasons why we see the potential for Elon Musk’s two largest companies to have a closer relationship over time, including possible strategic partnerships, technology transfer, co-investment and potentially a combination. We have asked Elon directly about this topic on more than one occasion, as we believe it may carry investment significance for Tesla.”
All hypothetical of course because SpaceX not yet a public company.
“We see the future of Tesla and SpaceX as potentially further intertwined, driven by technological, strategic and financial factors. In our view, investors should have a greater understanding of this relationship.
There are a number of reasons why we see the potential for Elon Musk’s two largest companies to have a closer relationship over time, including possible strategic partnerships, technology transfer, co-investment and potentially a combination. We have asked Elon directly about this topic on more than one occasion, as we believe it may carry investment significance for Tesla.”
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