2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[bdy0627]

My guess would be the rumor of Model-3 ramping (because of the sightings)
But it is still low volume.

Just imagine what will happen when we see formal confirmation the bottleneck at the GigaFactory is resolved .

I think we will already be a lot higher by the time there is formal confirmation. The market will anticipate the news well in advance as it is already doing now. I expect TT007 to be posting a LOT more here over the coming weeks.

 

[myusername]

yet another "Tesla is Apple" post. can't get enough of those.

 

[PaulusdB]

As I noted about the trading on Wednesday, we are again seeing buying interest in extended spurts accompanied by volume. This is typically a telltale sign of institutional accumulation of shares. Some money managers may either know something about the near term, or have become more confident about the long term prospects for Tesla.

Or are just EOQ/EOY windowdressing to show TSLA in their portfolio?
(Crossed the 50% YTD mark.)

 

[myusername]

Apple or Google buying Tesla and Elon remains on board now that he's proven to succesfully launch an affordable ev?

where are the profit margin numbers?... that's proof... what you currently have is a parking lot with a few hundred cars in it... and you calling that proof is the definition of hype.

 

[Starno]

where are the profit margin numbers?... that's proof... what you currently have is a parking lot with a few hundred cars in it... and you calling that proof is the definition of hype.

You're just in the 3rd stage of the "short awakening process" :

1) Tesla will never be able to produce the M3
2) Tesla will never be able to ramp the M3
3) Tesla will never be able to get profits from the M3
4) Tesla will never be able to scale the M3

_________________________________________

Most shorts are still on the stage 2, you're about to transition to the stage 3. That's a good sign, you're in advance compared to most shorts who'll transition only in a few weeks.

I expect stage 4 by end of next year.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Edit: again a nice day in Norway. Today 78 and counting, 2.077 for Q4 (and counting), will pass Q3 number this week.
Tesla Registration Stats

We'll probably have other few good days ;-)
This is Oslo port one hour ago: Normal day at the port of Norway • r/teslamotors

 

[Starno]

We'll probably have other few good days ;-)
This is Oslo port one hour ago: Normal day at the port of Norway • r/teslamotors

Model X invasion.

 

[Gerardf]

We'll probably have other few good days ;-)
This is Oslo port one hour ago: Normal day at the port of Norway • r/teslamotors

Fantastic !

 

[Mike Smith]

Will be interesting to see the updated short interest after hours. Shorts added 2.2 million shares in the first half of November - surely they didn't add even more in the second half?

 

[Gerardf]

Will be interesting to see the updated short interest after hours. Shorts added 2.2 million shares in the first half of November - surely they didn't add even more in the second half?

I bet they did.
Where is VA. No poll yet ?

 

[Waiting4M3]

Anyone know if the lots got cleared out (cars delivered) after the video post? I doubt they could have cleared a lot, but how fast are they getting these off the lot. I did check my local site in Chicago suburbs and no model 3's as of Saturday.

Too soon to tall about FDC but compare pictures of the new LA Marina Del Ray delivery center:

Dec 4 before opening
and
Dec 7 after opening

You'll see that the M3s sighted on Dec 7 are different (at least parked in different order), suggesting that most of the M3 from Dec 4 are gone.

 

[myusername]

You're just in the 3rd stage of the "short awakening process" :

1) Tesla will never be able to produce the M3
2) Tesla will never be able to ramp the M3
3) Tesla will never be able to get profits from the M3
4) Tesla will never be able to scale the M3

_________________________________________

Most shorts are still on the stage 2, you're about to transition to the stage 3. That's a good sign, you're in advance compared to most shorts who'll transition only in a few weeks.

I expect stage 4 by end of next year.

I've never said any of these things... what I just said is 300 cars in a parking lot does not equate to 1m/yr w/ $6B in net profits in 2020... the level of madness on this board actually requires me to say this out loud.

also... I've never said they can't do any of these things... my "line" is that whatever they do will end up being well short of any mega-goals that you continuously hear... and that Tesla will eventually become a typical auto company valued as a typical auto company and not the hype bubble stock as is currently being demonstrated.

 

[Waiting4M3]

You're just in the 3rd stage of the "short awakening process" :

1) Tesla will never be able to produce the M3
2) Tesla will never be able to ramp the M3
3) Tesla will never be able to get profits from the M3
4) Tesla will never be able to scale the M3
_______________________
Most shorts are still on the stage 2, you're about to transition to the stage 3. That's a good sign, you're in advance compared to most shorts who'll transition only in a few weeks.

I expect stage 4 by end of next year.

If they run out of money to short TSLA before stage 4, would they still qualify as shorts?

 

[AudubonB]

OKKUPERT!

 

[theschnell]

yet another "Tesla is Apple" post. can't get enough of those.

Don't say you weren't warned.

The analogy is overwhelmingly obvious. The only (big) difference is lack of profitability during ramp up for Tesla whereas Iphone was profitable much, much sooner. That may or may not matter in the long run. That's the only remaining question.

Other than that, the Nokia / Iphone > ICE / Tesla transition is blatantly obvious.

 

[TradingInvest]

The stock situation is similar to December 2016, also a little bit like December 2012.

But why is it going up? Is it all the news about Semi reservations? People seeing more TM3s?

While there are many reasons for the rally: Model 3 delivery; Technical set up; QQQ up; Chinese stock market up; Oil up; ......

I think fundamentally the biggest reason is Elon disclosed Tesla has been working on the best AI hardware in the world. Although Elon is usually a bit aggressive on timeline, on the technical side he always delivers. There is a high chance they indeed bring out the best AI hardware and software.

All the funds, long or short, have to re-evaluate Tesla. As I mentioned earlier, this leading AI system, if turns out to be true, deserves a $200B market cap on the spot. I hope shorts stay short. We don't want them to cover before a 200% rally. We want them to cover AFTER the rally.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Don't say you weren't warned.

The analogy is overwhelmingly obvious. The only (big) difference is lack of profitability during ramp up for Tesla whereas Iphone was profitable much, much sooner. That may or may not matter in the long run. That's the only remaining question.

Other than that, the Nokia / Iphone > ICE / Tesla transition is blatantly obvious.

It's probably too simplistic to try to make direct comparison of iPhone to Tesla cars. Were there any early iPhone models that cost >>$1000 and sold only in 100Ks of units? Was it the only product that Apple was offering at the time while Apple did R&D and manufacturing build-out on their mass market iPhone model? What was Apple's profitability then?

 

[TradingInvest]

Apple or Google buying Tesla and Elon remains on board now that he's proven to succesfully launch an affordable ev?

Won't happen, Elon knows how high Tesla will go.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Won't happen, Elon knows how high Tesla will go.

I will vote no for sure as a stock holder. Unless if they want to offer $1000/sh today. In 2-3 years I might be looking for $2000/sh+ for a buy-out.

 

[theschnell]

It's probably too simplistic to try to make direct comparison of iPhone to Tesla cars. Were there any early iPhone models that cost >>$1000 and sold only in 100Ks of units? Was it the only product that Apple was offering at the time while Apple did R&D and manufacturing build-out on their mass market iPhone model? What was Apple's profitability then?

It probably is too simplistic to make such a generic analogy as I did. To narrow it down a little, I believe that the transition from ICE to EV will be much faster than most people think. I think within 10 years from now at least 80% of new cars sold will be electric. If that actually comes true, that will be a shocking transition, but I believe it will happen. Obviously all the EV's sold will not be Teslas. Not even close. But ICE sales will be dead and manufacturers who do not embrace the transition will be like Nokia, who missed the smartphone transition and died when it comes to cell phone sales.