2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[geneclean55]

 

[austinEV]

BOOM! SHAKE SHAKE SHAKE the room!

All time high.

Yet look at the daily chart. So orderly. Practically boring. (edit: So comfortable. So Shoneys.)

This isn't a sqeeze yet.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Electrek says that Elon spoke about already taking a ride in the prototype Semi. I didnt realize it was that far along. Also stating that it is capable of long hauls. I have never been interested in a Semi in my life, but I find this absolutely riveting now.

I said this before, and I'll say it again, because it is very important: Elon/Tesla is moving quicker than even my expectations. This is not the first, or the second, time that I had to massively adjust my growth assumptions in my DCF, and very unlikely that it will be the last.

 

[zdriver]

Here's a screenshot from @HFTAlert's Accumulator software earlier today. (wanted to check with Steve there before posting)

This shows Algo buying/selling - you can see just before noon that net selling (trending down) shifted to net buying (trending up) and accelerated. When $310 was broke around 12:00, I suspect many short's stops were triggered in rapid succession, explaining the price spike on heavy volume.

I was watching Level II all morning prior to this, in order to time an exit on some ITM weeklies and sold most by about 10am, but held onto about 1/3rd, knowing pin was likely >=310, and even though after 10am the accumulators were not supportive of breaking $310, there were clearly some big fish bids pushing the support line up all morning. So I played wait-and-see. When this accumulator turn up around 11:58, I grabbed a few 310c and sold at ~$312, along with my last 1/3rd from yesterday. Nice scalp, but hindsight is 20/20...

 

[neroden]

yeah, hopefully they were honest about their intentions during the purchase. It would be all too easy to say "of course, you can continue working with your existing clients" and they later say "ok, all hands on deck for our most critical project". I suspect that is what actually happened.

They did say they would honor all existing contracts, and apparently they are. But when you need the entire output of the company for in-house work, you can't afford to open new outside contracts.

This *already happened* with Riviera Tool and Die. They continued working with their existing customers until Tesla needed so much output from them that there wasn't production capacity left for the other customers. So if Grohemann did his due dligence and looked at the Riviera acquisition, he would have known exactly what would happen.

 

[neroden]

Rolfe Winkler on Twitter

Up from the previous statement of 3 new Gigafactories to 4?

"Reckless expansion" is a go, I guess. Everyone's guessing China and Europe, but where will the *other* two Gigafactories be?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Here's a screenshot from @HFTAlert's Accumulator software earlier today. (wanted to check with Steve there before posting)

This shows Algo buying/selling - you can see just before noon that net selling (trending down) shifted to net buying (trending up) and accelerated. When $310 was broke around 12:00, I suspect many short's stops were triggered in rapid succession, explaining the price spike on heavy volume.

I was watching Level II all morning prior to this, in order to time an exit on some ITM weeklies and sold most by about 10am, but held onto about 1/3rd, knowing pin was likely >=310, and even though after 10am the accumulators were not supportive of breaking $310, there were clearly some big fish bids pushing the support line up all morning. So I played wait-and-see. When this accumulator turn up around 11:58, I grabbed a few 310c and sold at ~$312, along with my last 1/3rd from yesterday. Nice scalp, but hindsight is 20/20...

View attachment 224841

how did you know "pin >=310" ?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Up from the previous statement of 3 new Gigafactories to 4?

"Reckless expansion" is a go, I guess. Everyone's guessing China and Europe, but where will the *other* two Gigafactories be?

my guess is that he repeated "Gigafactories 3, 4, and possibly 5" but the TED crowd is misinterpreting it not knowing NY SCTY factory is Gigafactory 2. This is just my guess as I wasn't there.

EDIT: Looks like he actually said "probably 4 more."

Damn. 5 million cars by 2020?

By the way, isn't all this market-moving info so it should've been accompanied with a press release or a publicly available live stream?

 

[T3slaTulips]

ATH close. nice end to the week.

 

[zdriver]

how did you know "pin >=310" ?

Big wall o' puts.

And $312.5 almost happened.

 

[RoadsterPlease]

haha oh my god. Sold in the last 10 seconds, not even sure if the thing went through, let's see what next weeks brings! Awesome to close the week at ATH.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Up from the previous statement of 3 new Gigafactories to 4?

"Reckless expansion" is a go, I guess. Everyone's guessing China and Europe, but where will the *other* two Gigafactories be?

I expect one more in the US. Likely in WV to put the displaced coal workers back to work. That would be huge PR for Tesla.

 

[techmaven]

Big wall o' puts.

View attachment 224848

And $312.5 almost happened.

View attachment 224854

Yeah, I bought calls around 3:25pm ... $310.00's and $307.50's anticipating a slew of shorts needing to close out once the MM algo-bots were overwhelmed trying to hold it to $312.50. High risk, but grabbed about 30-40% gain.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I do not know what the cost is. I will try contacting L3 Partners to figure this out later today. I think that it would be great to have daily short interest information *and* alerts for an unusual activity.

It is my understanding that so far there are four members interested in group subscription. Post if I am missing anybody or you would like to add yourself to the group.

@geneclean55
@1kEE
@LargeHamCollider
@vgrinshpun

In addition to the interested listed above, the following members are added to the list:
@austinEV
@MitchJi
@zdriver

I contacted Ihor Dusaniwsky with the request for info, and planning to provide an update when I have more information via PM to the interested members.

 

[Yggdrasill]

You can add me too, but it depends entirely on the cost.

 

[Crowded Mind]

You can add me too, but it depends entirely on the cost.

Same boat. Well... a similar, probably smaller boat.

 

[vgrinshpun]

You can add me too, but it depends entirely on the cost.

Sure, no obligation at this point whatsoever.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Being slightly OCD about the Fidelity availability data, I continued to collect it. Not surprisingly, it suggests some covering activity (add your favorite flavor of small print/disclaimer here). Here is the data:

 

[vgrinshpun]

Same boat. Well... a similar, probably smaller boat.

Something like this?

 

[austinEV]

wow, crawling up after hours. Up $0.92/0.29% as I write this.