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Waiting4M3
Active Member
maybe Spiegel is right and its s going to ZERO now 
Reciprocity
Active Member
Weird, apple dropped at the same time and with the same steepness.
Edit: Apple didnt have the same dead cat bounce that TSLA did though.. Still down.
Edit: Apple didnt have the same dead cat bounce that TSLA did though.. Still down.
Tesla is way oversold and needs to consolidate. If it can consolidate around here- it's super healthy.
tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
I'm super-long, as I've stated forever, but I'm getting concerned about the euphoria around the TSLA stock price.
Some questions:
1. What are the current estimates for delivery numbers for Q2, probably to be reported on Sunday July 2?
2. What are the chances that Elon's shareholder meeting mention of the Model 3 configurator only having car color and wheel size choices was just another attempt for Elon and company to "anti-sell" the Model 3 (something he has admitted the company is doing recently) in order to prop sagging S/X sales?
I would welcome data that shows that Q2's delivery numbers are great. But I haven't seen any, and wonder if the stock might plummet on July 3rd due to a less-than-stellar Q2 report.
Some questions:
1. What are the current estimates for delivery numbers for Q2, probably to be reported on Sunday July 2?
2. What are the chances that Elon's shareholder meeting mention of the Model 3 configurator only having car color and wheel size choices was just another attempt for Elon and company to "anti-sell" the Model 3 (something he has admitted the company is doing recently) in order to prop sagging S/X sales?
I would welcome data that shows that Q2's delivery numbers are great. But I haven't seen any, and wonder if the stock might plummet on July 3rd due to a less-than-stellar Q2 report.
GBleck
Member
The 11:10 to 11:25 bite was market wide. Any ideas as to why? Google news not showing anything I can think of.
Here's an image of the NASDAQ's dip a little after 11am today. TSLA followed it down. I haven't seen the NASDAQ do a secondary little dip like TSLA, which suggests some weak longs and some shorts were selling after the 11:30am event. NVIDIA's decline was from a 3.x% jump up early in the morning and the NVIDIA decline began about 10am. So, I'm guessing NVIDIA was a catalyst for the NASDAQ dip, which led to the TSLA dip. The big question now is: will the longs bid TSLA back up today or will the shorts jump on this event and push hard to bring it down some?
Irrelevant to TSLA but this is the reason why NVDA dropped.
Short-seller who predicted Valeant plunge targets surging trader favorite Nvidia
Short-seller who predicted Valeant plunge targets surging trader favorite Nvidia
Short-seller who predicted Valeant plunge targets surging trader favorite Nvidia
Short-seller who predicted Valeant plunge targets surging trader favorite Nvidia
Hasn't been a factor in a long time, but today is OpEx and Max Pain is sitting at about 360 I believe. Also, I tend to agree that when the mainstream press starts trumpeting that it's impossible to ever make money shorting Tesla any longer because Tesla shorts have lost money recently and TSLA will never go down again, it's kind of dangerously euphoric.
racer26
Active Member
This dip is entirely macro, whatever it is. It has *nothing* to do with TSLA.
Reciprocity
Active Member
1. 25k, no reason other then they stated 47-50K for 1H2017 and they did 25k last quarter even though there was a shut down for 10-14 days but that offset an overhang of about 6k cars that where in transit 4Q2016.
2. At this point the anti selling/Osborne effect/blah blah.. I dont see it as an issue. I think what is freaking Tesla out is that they started with 370k reservations over a year ago and it keeps growing, even with some silly people canceling because of Trump council. This number could be as high as 600k. I think this is what is spooking Tesla and causing the anti-selling the 3. They want and believe that some percent of those folks should be looking at the S. They probably have a way to figure it out too, they can take the reservation holders and append income data from Axiom/Experian and a billion other data providers. Lets say 100,000 of the Model 3 holders, who are not Model S/X owners, make $120k+/Year. If Teals was actually desperate, and they arent. They could literately do a campaign to those 100,000 people to get them into an S and easily convert some meaningful percent of them. I think we would know if they did that, because someone would tell us on this forum.
I dont think there is an Osborne effect because that would have happened in Mar-Apr, not today because people reserving today wont get their cars for a year. Its like saying there is an Osborne effect from the Y impacting sales today. Its silly. People need a car and you either have one to sell them or you dont and Tesla only has S's to sell. Now people can push a car for year past its time, but in a lot of cases they are coming off leases and they need a car. Tesla can probably also dial in the data above by looking at who is leasing. You would be shocked at what kinda data you can buy on people.
The reason why I am not concerned. Tax Credit expires next year and if you dont have a reservation a year ago, you wont get the credit. That leaves Model S/X if you want a Tesla. Model 3 is going to get so much exposure and people who dont even know what a Tesla is, not even who Nicola Tesla was, are going to become aware of the brand and start to learn about. If you walked own the street and ask 20 people what GM or BMW was and then asked what Tesla was, and I am not talking about in San Fran, but in say Denver or Chicago. I think you would find half as many people even know what Tesla is much less that they make awesome cars. Model 3 is going to drive some insane awareness. Word of mouth alone, Facebook and so on.. will blow up this brand. Hide and watch.
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