2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[phigment]

Hm.. wonder if this will stay nailed to max pain at $360?

 

[luvb2b]

and um, nvda has dropped another 5 points. wow nasty sell off there.

nvda droped another 6 points and seems to have dragged tesla with it.

 

[Waiting4M3]

...Remember, we're having a big dip into the low $360 range. I repeat - $360. Imagine saying that at the beginning of the year!!!!!

or beginning of the week?

 

[jhm]

 

[ClownMouth]

In any case, by the end of the year if Musk convinces people that Tesla truly achieved level-4 autonomy. That proof-of-concept itself is worth 70Bil!

How much more is everything else worth? Model-3 in itself if a holy grail. With improvements in chemistry (Musk alluded to 12 to 13% improvements an year!) and automated assembly, what kind of prospects does Tesla have on manufacturing side? Isn’t 30Bil too low for this?

A good way to think about valuation is this. Today’s valuation is simply a discount to the ultimate valuation. The discount rate applied becomes lower as more milestones are achieved. So Tesla will keep becoming incrementally more valuable each passing year.

Musk at one point said Tesla will reach 700Bil market-cap in 10 years. Then later he said trillion dollars with solarcity acquisition. To grow into that valuation the company will have to add about 100Bil valuation each year!

Why would first 100 be such a shock. Not really. All it has to do is keep hitting milestones.

Thanks for the reply. I certainly don't think the "first 100" will be a shock to many (myself included), I just have a harder time putting a time frame on it. (FWIW I asked your thoughts with potential options plays in mind). As for level 4 proof-of-concept being worth $70B, that is simply Jonas' opinion. We'll see what the market says if Tesla can indeed make it happen. With shares I am confident just believing these things will eventually play out regardless of timeline. I appreciate the detailed thought process.

 

[erthquake]

and um, nvda has dropped another 5 points. wow nasty sell off there.

Enormous volume, too!

 

[Starno]

That's a very healthy consolidation. Put the stock on a strong basis to attack the 400

 

[LoveTSLA]

That's a very healthy consolidation. Put the stock on a strong basis to attack the 400

Yeah. Let's see if it close around 365?

 

[geneclean55]

Sector rotation very important to keep the rally going.

 

[Chop110]

Sweet holy pullback, I have been waiting two weeks for you!!! Back in at 360!! Time to ride this bucking bronco till 400!

 

[jhm]

1,2T isn't 3600 dollars per share mate, it's 7400 dollars per share.

There will be alot more shares in 2027.

 

[Starno]

Lol TSLA following the exact same pattern than NVDA and NASDAQ now, back up at the same time...

 

[Richgoogol]

Bought more @ 358.88. That was a no brainer. Whoever that was, thank you for the opportunity

 

[MartinAustin]

TSLA just went from $357 to $364 in 30 minutes. That would have sounded pretty good YESTERDAY MORNING. Nothing wrong with taking a breather on this otherwise crazy rally.

 

[erthquake]

Yeah. Let's see if it close around 365?

I wouldn't be surprised if it closes up for the day. That would be huge blow to the shorts I'd think.

 

[jhm]

Could you please share the major assumptions for $1.2T by 2027? I expect the same by 2021/22 due primarily to the 3 or 4 Gigafactories reaching full production capacity (i.e. 5m cars/year) by then.

Also, you must be assuming very substantial dilution, because $1.2T market cap is 20x of today's $60B, but $3,600 per share is only 10x. In contrast, I expect very minimal dilution, if any, as Model 3 ramp up will allow Tesla to borrow non-dilutive debt.

For these two reasons, I estimate that $440 is still a very good entry point, at least for me, as I have staying power for many years. I would rather take on the 20x upside potential rather than worry about 5-10-20% lower entry price.

It's all in the Blind Faith thread. Near term targets are not as sensitive to long term price target as one might think. This is because the discount distribution is calibrated on actual price history. Anyway this has all been developed and debated in the BFPT thread.

 

[Waiting4M3]

TSLA just went from $357 to $364 in 30 minutes. That would have sounded pretty good YESTERDAY MORNING. Nothing wrong with taking a breather on this otherwise crazy rally.

I forgot we were in the 360's yesterday, seems so long ago

 

[D-egg-O]

I pulled the trigger too soon on rolling over covered calls. But the dip was a good chance to sell other call options expiring next week. Made 50% gain vs. 100%+. Kept the winnings and reinvested the original amount in other call options 2 weeks out.

 

[hoang51]

Irrelevant to TSLA but this is the reason why NVDA dropped.
Short-seller who predicted Valeant plunge targets surging trader favorite Nvidia
Short-seller who predicted Valeant plunge targets surging trader favorite Nvidia

Well, that just made a great opportunity buying NVDA, AMD, TSLA, among others today. Today's drop in NVDA nearly wiped out two day's worth of gain from Citi's upgrade and some other upgrades. TSLA dipped some but I think it's to cut some short's loss in the stocks affected by today's dip. BS play, but window of opportunities. Citron isn't right all the time. I loaded up some on NVDA, didn't want to put all my eggs in TSLA basket.

 

[D-egg-O]

Surprised I haven't seen my favorite TMC trolls on this thread today. It is a down day after all.